How would brexit work?

[caervek]

UKIP have been leeching support from the Tory right for years.

True but it didn't really get bad until 2015. In 2010 they did slightly better than 1997 and the results in 2001/2005 were lower.

It is not true to say they do not really factor into it, as the Lib Dems blocked the original plan in 2014, not 5 years ago.

It is true to say that UKIP did not factor into the Tories offering a referendum as it's something they had been trying to offer since back when UKIP were a non entity.

As for the 5 years ago/2014 thing, The tories wanted to schedule a referendum 5 years ago as they said they would but the Lib Dems said they would veto it so the Tories decided to wait and avoid losing face on a sure loss, which they then did in 2014 when they proposed it anyway (knowing it would fail, but ensuring that in the run up to the next election all the eurosceptic voters understood it was the Lib Dems who had denied them it not the Tories).

[Kalis]

True but it didn't really get bad until 2015. In 2010 they did slightly better than 1997 and the results in 2001/2005 were lower.


It is true to say that UKIP did not factor into the Tories offering a referendum as it's something they had been trying to offer since back when UKIP were a non entity.

As for the 5 years ago/2014 thing, The tories wanted to schedule a referendum 5 years ago as they said they would but the Lib Dems said they would veto it so the Tories decided to wait and avoid losing face on a sure loss, which they then did in 2014 when they proposed it anyway (knowing it would fail, but ensuring that in the run up to the next election all the eurosceptic voters understood it was the Lib Dems who had denied them it not the Tories).

I am not seeing that at all, as far as I recall some Tories have always wanted a referendum and UKIP brought that issue to a head.

UKIP started to rise just after the 2010 election, when Farage came back as leader and that led to a sense of urgency in the Tories to stop defections from the madder sections of the party - a split in the Tory Party would have inevitibly led to a future Labour administration.

[caervek]

I am not seeing that at all, as far as I recall some Tories have always wanted a referendum and UKIP brought that issue to a head.

UKIP started to rise just after the 2010 election, when Farage came back as leader and that led to a sense of urgency in the Tories to stop defections from the madder sections of the party - a split in the Tory Party would have inevitibly led to a future Labour administration.

It was being promised by the Tories prior to the 2010 election, the only reason we didn't get it in the 2010-2015 term is because they lacked a majority.