An analysis of Alpha + Beta durations

[Deleted]

You’re getting caught up with the same labelling trap like the people arguing over whether the game is currently in Alpha or Beta. Focus on the state of the game rather than specific labels:

1 month before WoD launch we had the pre-patch, and beta servers about to close

2 months before WoD launch we had Challenge Dungeons being tested, pre-patch on PTR and launching soon, stress tests happening.

3 months before WoD launch we had all specs, dungeons, zones, heroic raids (mythic starting) and PvP content for quite some time.

4 months before WoD launch all specs available, most zones were available, PvP testing was under way, Heroic raid testing in progress, dungeons testing in full swing, release date announced (though it was announced later in MoP).

Seeing the above, obviously we are not 1-2 months away from launch. Given that not all specs are available and are in complete flux as deemed by Ion Hazzikostas, only half way through heroic testing and other critical features are still missing from Alpha (including zones, Adventure Mode, class campaigns, etc.), I don’t believe that Legion is 3 months away (ie. July 6) from launch. It sounds much more like 4 months. The most logical conclusion is that we are still ~4 months away from Legion launch. August seems like a likely release date as a best case scenario. Considering the major systems overhauls, delays are very possible and it could be pushed back even further.

It still makes you wrong. And no I'm not stuck in the labeling part. Because alpha or beta tag matters nothing with Blizzard, it's not like Alpha, Beta, Milestone builds with for example Microsoft which reflect the quality and coding of the product itself.

I'm going on the the correct data. You are not. You are trying to add a month by adding the incorrect data, and then you base yourself upon that incorrect data to conclude that Legion is behind. IF Legion is behind it won't be much and as someone who's actually very experienced in Blizzard beta's, unlike yourself, it's very clear that Legion does not need a lot of remaining work.

Tuning, whether it's classes, heroic, mythic normal or lfr, can be pushed and fixed in a matter of weeks, similar to how it's been handled previous beta's, it doesn't even need to be done before the game launches, it's generally also done during the first weeks of launch.

The only thing that is intensive in time is updating models, recreating models, but even that, with 90% of all the content in place isn't going to take longer than a month or 2. Comparing the quality of WoD and Legion, I'd say Legion is still quite ahead of WoD.

Not to mention comparing to WoD, you do realize that Legion is a far more rich expansion than WoD right. WoD didn't have an extensive class overhaul, had to create dozens of new animations, updating all gear models to 3D and then also adding Artifacts system, pvp system on top of that, new challenge mode system on top of that and so on. It would be more logical comparing to MoP if anything.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm not as concerned with raid testing right now, as I recall they have gone a lot of different directions with what they want publicly tested and in house tested. So we might not see Mythic raids publicly tested for Legion.

We don't have the 110 cap, but we have all of the leveling zones. I think they will bring 110 and Surumar out on the same build so that people will have things to do for 110. When that happens it will be nearly 100% content out. and out of the 35 specs we have 34 available, not exactly a tall mountain left to climb. Not to say that we are in line with your estimation but we aren't far off. I do think they are spending more time on class/spec testing then previous xpacs so im not complaining. Prepatch in late June I think, July-August release has been my expectation for awhile though.

They'll test mythic, they always do, just not the end bosses of both instances.

[Breccia]

I believe that we will be back on track in 1-1.5 month's time, so a mid-late August release seems likely (assuming there aren't any further deviations).

It's not that I disagree with your analysis. It's that I hope you're wrong. Personally, I'd rather see as much time put into the new expansion as fiscally possible, so it turns out to be a good one. Especially with so much attention being paid to classes, and what happened with Arms last time.

[Deleted]

It's not that I disagree with your analysis. It's that I hope you're wrong. Personally, I'd rather see as much time put into the new expansion as fiscally possible, so it turns out to be a good one. Especially with so much attention being paid to classes, and what happened with Arms last time.

Why do you think they need to have that extra time to avoid the same mistakes?

The mistake with WOD was the pull-out technique they used to finish testing and pushing the release by cutting things left right and center.

We don't see the same thing happening with Legion which is why I asked my question above.

[Celarent]

We're about where the Cataclysm beta was in July 2010 -- systems incomplete, encounters open but rough, zones unfinished.

I see a June hype/announcement for a September release.

Edit: Remember that Blizzard confirms launch no fewer than 2 months out as closely to the day as possible, and chose 3 months for WoD. We'll know about June and July soon.

[Svad]

Got an Alpha invite this week, and yeah. This alpha is at the 4,5 months WoD beta atm.

[styil]

It still makes you wrong. And no I'm not stuck in the labeling part. Because alpha or beta tag matters nothing with Blizzard, it's not like Alpha, Beta, Milestone builds with for example Microsoft which reflect the quality and coding of the product itself.

I'm going on the the correct data. You are not. You are trying to add a month by adding the incorrect data, and then you base yourself upon that incorrect data to conclude that Legion is behind. IF Legion is behind it won't be much and as someone who's actually very experienced in Blizzard beta's, unlike yourself, it's very clear that Legion does not need a lot of remaining work.

I have provided full evidence as to the state of the WoD beta 3 months before launch:

https://twitter.com/mumper/status/492368084477308928
https://web.archive.org/web/20141019...ic/13778007962
http://web.archive.org/web/201408221...ic/13841254588
https://web.archive.org/web/20140901...ic/13778017720

If you think that those links are incorrect, explain why, find me the correct links, and explain why yours are correct. Otherwise, those are WoD’s benchmarks 3 months before launch. And if you compare those benchmarks to Legion’s, it looks bleak.

Tuning, whether it's classes, heroic, mythic normal or lfr, can be pushed and fixed in a matter of weeks, similar to how it's been handled previous beta's, it doesn't even need to be done before the game launches, it's generally also done during the first weeks of launch.

The only thing that is intensive in time is updating models, recreating models, but even that, with 90% of all the content in place isn't going to take longer than a month or 2. Comparing the quality of WoD and Legion, I'd say Legion is still quite ahead of WoD.

What do you mean by “quite ahead”? Because assuming that Legion is "quite ahead" of WoD at the 3 months to launch mark, that is a release date of early July or before. I don't think that it is ahead of WoD’s 3 month to launch trajectory and I would argue it is just about to get to the 4 month trajectory. We still can’t test all the zones, specs (which Ion Hazzikostas has described as “in complete flux” and “very, very far from final”), Adventure Mode, spec campaigns, etc. yet. Does this sound like something that's ready to go on the PTR in a few weeks? Considering we haven't even officially entered beta yet nor tested Broken Isles.

Not to mention comparing to WoD, you do realize that Legion is a far more rich expansion than WoD right. WoD didn't have an extensive class overhaul, had to create dozens of new animations, updating all gear models to 3D and then also adding Artifacts system, pvp system on top of that, new challenge mode system on top of that and so on. It would be more logical comparing to MoP if anything..

This only reinforces the fact that even more time is needed to test Legion and that it will take even longer to get to each of the 4, 3 and 2 month phases shown in my previous post. And if they are taking feedback more seriously this time around, then the whole process will take that much longer.

[stormgust]

Other than that - there's really not much left to test.

The entire max level content, but raiding, for sure is more than "not much left". We're missing:
-Adventure mode, including the associated factions, quests, events, interace and rewards
-Challenge mode, which is an entirely new system and should require some extensive work
-Suramar (and by how complete Aszuna is reported, probably also parts of the Aszuna questlines)
-Raidtests for about half the HC encounters, followed by mythic tests

That's gonna take some time to test, and especially for the new systems, ought to require some iterations. It's not even close to "not much left"

And we can't even know for sure what Blizzard will decide they want tested by the public and what they will keep testing only internally untill it hits PTR\Live.

Testing entirely new systems only internally obviously is the logical explanation as to why this is not yet on alpha...? Sorry, but that just sounds ridiculous.

Destro has been said (by Blizzard) to not have changed that much (so not much to test there) and the only reason they haven't put it out for testing is that the Artifact quest isn't done yet.

Uhm, I wouldn't call four entirely new talent rows "nothing to test", at least some of those should be up for player feedback based changes. And they apparently have yet to get started on feedback based iterations on the PvP trees for all 36 specs. Guess what, once they're in code freeze, neither of that will happen (and if you check any past prepatch PTR, you should realize that PTR usually meant no more class changes, just number crunching). Going by class design alone, we're probably still several weeks away from PTR.

[Breccia]

Why do you think they need to have that extra time to avoid the same mistakes?

The mistake with WOD was the pull-out technique they used to finish testing and pushing the release by cutting things left right and center.

We don't see the same thing happening with Legion which is why I asked my question above.

If I were to rewrite that line "We don't see the same thing happening with Legion yet" you'd see what I mean.

[Fayenoor]

End August-September would be my bet. Releasing an expac in summer is not the best idea. Summers are usually bad for MMO attendance anyways. (People like to do outdoor stuff, camping, vacations).

[styil]

It still makes you wrong. And no I'm not stuck in the labeling part. Because alpha or beta tag matters nothing with Blizzard, it's not like Alpha, Beta, Milestone builds with for example Microsoft which reflect the quality and coding of the product itself.

I'm going on the the correct data. You are not. You are trying to add a month by adding the incorrect data, and then you base yourself upon that incorrect data to conclude that Legion is behind. IF Legion is behind it won't be much and as someone who's actually very experienced in Blizzard beta's, unlike yourself, it's very clear that Legion does not need a lot of remaining work.

Tuning, whether it's classes, heroic, mythic normal or lfr, can be pushed and fixed in a matter of weeks, similar to how it's been handled previous beta's, it doesn't even need to be done before the game launches, it's generally also done during the first weeks of launch.

The only thing that is intensive in time is updating models, recreating models, but even that, with 90% of all the content in place isn't going to take longer than a month or 2. Comparing the quality of WoD and Legion, I'd say Legion is still quite ahead of WoD.

Not to mention comparing to WoD, you do realize that Legion is a far more rich expansion than WoD right. WoD didn't have an extensive class overhaul, had to create dozens of new animations, updating all gear models to 3D and then also adding Artifacts system, pvp system on top of that, new challenge mode system on top of that and so on. It would be more logical comparing to MoP if anything.

- - - Updated - - -



They'll test mythic, they always do, just not the end bosses of both instances.

Seems like your extended "experience" in betas proved to be useless.

So speculation is pointless, this conversation is pointless, and your over exaggerations are also pointless.

Turns out that my "exaggerations" were on point.

End August-September would be my bet. Releasing an expac in summer is not the best idea. Summers are usually bad for MMO attendance anyways. (People like to do outdoor stuff, camping, vacations).

Spot on. Turns out Legion was indeed well behind WoD's release trajectory as predicted.

[MoanaLisa]

Now that we have a firm release date there's really no point to speculative beta threads and predicted launch dates.

Closing.