UK already entering recession say economists

[Bollocks]

UK already entering recession say economists


Britain has likely already entered the early stages of a technical recession likely to persist into early 2017 economists polled by Reuters have said, as post-Brexit uncertainty weighs on sentiment.

From a broadly stable forecast that growth would continue close to the 0.6% expansion achieved in the second quarter, economists now expect it to fall to 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.

The survey followed sentiment surveys suggesting that the British economy was slowing at the fastest pace since early 2009.

‘The recession will largely be driven by sharp falls in business investment over the coming quarters,’ Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics told the news agency.

‘Most firms will hold off investment until there is a bit more clarity over whether we are likely to remain in the single market... and to see how much other firms are impacted by Brexit.’

More than two thirds said that they expected chancellor Philip Hammond to reverse the austerity policies of his predecessor with a ‘significant’ fiscal stimulus when he delivers the autumn statement, in a recognition that monetary policy was reaching the end of its usefulness.

The survey followed the National Institute of Economic & Social Research’s flash GDP estimate for July, suggesting output fell 0.2% in the month.

The NIESR said that growth was likely to flatline for the remainder of the quarter, and described the likelihood of the UK entering a technical recession as roughly 50/50.

‘The month on month profile, suggests that the third quarter has got off to a weak start, with output declining in July,’ said NIESR research fellow James Warren. ‘Our estimates suggest that there is around an evens chance of a technical recession by the end of 2017.’

Source: http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager...omists/a941878

[Deletedaccount1]

I doubt the long term consequences will be that serious. Many economists are failing to take into consideration that the UK might seek freer trade with the rest of the world, primarily North America and Africa.

NGDP is more likely to fall in smaller, poorer EU countries that rely on larger ones like the UK or Germany. I would expect the UK to rebound to pre-Brexit GDP growth levels by next year.

[Kallisto]

I doubt the long term consequences will be that serious. Many economists are failing to take into consideration that the UK might seek freer trade with the rest of the world, primarily North America and Africa.

NGDP is more likely to fall in smaller, poorer EU countries that rely on larger ones like the UK or Germany. I would expect the UK to rebound to pre-Brexit GDP growth levels by next year.

No Economists are not failing to take that into consideration at all. What you are failing to take in consideration is the UK really isn't all that great. That these countries will get better deals elsewhere and no deal for the UK is anywhere near as good as what the UK had in the EU.

[Acidbaron]

No Economists are not failing to take that into consideration at all. What you are failing to take in consideration is the UK really isn't all that great. That these countries will get better deals elsewhere and no deal for the UK is anywhere near as good as what the UK had in the EU.

One never takes Knadra serious on these forums, best to move on and ignore the troll account.

OT: This was fully predicted it has some benefits for the tourist sectors with the pound being 10-11% below the euro. Less great for other economies that depend on imported goods and materials. So i can fully see it preventing companies to invest in the UK again before they see some brighter future outlook, what again will just hurt the average citizen, however half of them did vote for this so...

[Cosmic Janitor]

I just hope the clowns at FTDI won't go down the shitter in the future.. after all the effort to design their USB chips into my projects I'd rather not do that again with another manufacturer..

[icausewipes]

None of this really matters. The rest of the world only wants to know when the new season of Doctor Who will start and why it was removed from Netflix.

[Deleted]

I doubt the long term consequences will be that serious. Many economists are failing to take into consideration that the UK might seek freer trade with the rest of the world, primarily North America and Africa.

Does the UK have the 100+ skilled, educated, and trained foreign service negotiators for those trade deals? and the decade its going to be until they are done? - The answer by the way is no.

NGDP is more likely to fall in smaller, poorer EU countries that rely on larger ones like the UK or Germany. I would expect the UK to rebound to pre-Brexit GDP growth levels by next year

because magic treaties you negotiate in 5 minutes? - That you cant negotiate until after you leave the EU? - that you wont have done by next year by the way.

[Kuntantee]

Does the UK have the 100+ skilled, educated, and trained foreign service negotiators for those trade deals? and the decade its going to be until they are done? - The answer by the way is no.

100 is a joke number for Britain. In fact, it's a joke number for any country with similar demographic figures. Their population is around 65 million. Also, Britain has one of the best foreign departments in the world, certainly the best in Europe.

I wonder why do you think the answer is no.

[starlord]

i am enjoying the weaker £ for my online shopping, its almost as nice as ordering from canada.

[Deletedaccount1]

One never takes Knadra serious on these forums, best to move on and ignore the troll account.

OT: This was fully predicted it has some benefits for the tourist sectors with the pound being 10-11% below the euro. Less great for other economies that depend on imported goods and materials. So i can fully see it preventing companies to invest in the UK again before they see some brighter future outlook, what again will just hurt the average citizen, however half of them did vote for this so...

You have no idea what you are talking about.

- - - Updated - - -

No Economists are not failing to take that into consideration at all. What you are failing to take in consideration is the UK really isn't all that great. That these countries will get better deals elsewhere and no deal for the UK is anywhere near as good as what the UK had in the EU.

Neither do you.

- - - Updated - - -

Does the UK have the 100+ skilled, educated, and trained foreign service negotiators for those trade deals? and the decade its going to be until they are done? - The answer by the way is no.

because magic treaties you negotiate in 5 minutes? - That you cant negotiate until after you leave the EU? - that you wont have done by next year by the way.

I have no idea what you are even saying. The UK drafting something similar to NAFTA with other countries, even EU countries in the future is almost certainly going to happen to keep their economy afloat.

[primalmatter]

Isn't all of the EU in recession?

I don't see what has changed...

[Aeula]

Meh, we knew there would be a bit of an economic farse.

Short term stuff like this is irrelevant, we need to hurry up the deal with the EU so our economy doesn't end up bouncing like a yoyo every time something brexit-related is announced.

[Vash The Stampede]

Why fix it when you can Brexit? How much is the pound worth? Cause I see it dropped like a rock. You were warned.

[Deleted]

Britain has one of the best foreign departments in the world, certainly the best in Europe.

and still they still have a huge problem in negotiate the Britt-exit.....You think negotiate with a one large unit is hard, think to individually negotiate with all the nations of Africa.....

[ranzino]

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/br...2019-6kxb7sgrr

seems the train never starts at all ? lot of excuses, nothing substantial....c'mon, call it off and be done with the charade.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/br...2019-6kxb7sgrr

seems the train never starts at all ? lot of excuses, nothing substantial....c'mon, call it off and be done with the charade.

And if it is delayed until 2019 then they'll postpone it until after the general election.

[nextormento]

Are this the same experts that brexiters, out of principle, never listen to?

[ranzino]

And if it is delayed until 2019 then they'll postpone it until after the general election.

end of 2019 means they will invoke Article 50 in late 2017. general election's result is irrelevant: whoever wins has to deal with brexit consultations and live with its final decisions, they cannot call it off for any reasons! it's an automatism as soon the article is invoked and i assume nobody wants to take that risk.

[thealmightymoo]

sounds a lot like "the sky is falling" to me.

we wont really know untill they actually get round to doing it propper

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

end of 2019 means they will invoke Article 50 in late 2017. general election's result is irrelevant: whoever wins has to deal with brexit consultations and live with its final decisions, they cannot call it off for any reasons! it's an automatism as soon the article is invoked and i assume nobody wants to take that risk.

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty does not say that the exit process cannot be stopped or cancelled.