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  1. #881
    Quote Originally Posted by Loosecannon View Post
    So, I have a theory that 'badluck protection' is not actually a thing, and that Blizzard just said that it was so that people wouldn't cry about when they didn't get a legendary. They've never released any information on it, and the only way to 'increase' it is to spam the content which can drop legendaries, until one eventually drops.

    Statistically, spamming this content will increase your chance of getting a legendary, and provided the drop chance isn't so uber low it's ridiculous I'd think that's possible. I'm sure there are people who do a lot of content who aren't active on MMO-C or other sources, so we don't get to hear their vain cries about never getting any.

    Just a theory, but who knows?
    BLP is definitely a thing. The actual droprate of the legendaries is very low. That's why you can predict when you're getting next legendary to roughly a week if you do the content at the same rate. Anything +/- 2 weeks is very rare. Higher droprates of the first two legendaries is also a thing.

  2. #882
    Quote Originally Posted by barackohmama View Post
    BLP is definitely a thing. The actual droprate of the legendaries is very low. That's why you can predict when you're getting next legendary to roughly a week if you do the content at the same rate. Anything +/- 2 weeks is very rare. Higher droprates of the first two legendaries is also a thing.
    I work in finance, and did a Physics degree quite a while ago so I'm by no means a statistician. Isn't that what would happen with a low drop rate without BLP (sounds like a vaguely normally distributed result)?

    I definitely agree that the chances are higher on the first couple though.

  3. #883
    Quote Originally Posted by Loosecannon View Post
    I work in finance, and did a Physics degree quite a while ago so I'm by no means a statistician. Isn't that what would happen with a low drop rate without BLP (sounds like a vaguely normally distributed result)?

    I definitely agree that the chances are higher on the first couple though.
    No, what would happen without BLP is bindings, mount or glaive drop rates which are all over the place. Legion legendary are really damn consistent because you always get to that point in BLP where you have a very high chance to get one at about the 10 day mark if you do a lot of content. You can get very lucky and get one the next day, or unlucky and get one in 2 weeks but there isn't much variance other then that.

  4. #884
    Quote Originally Posted by Loosecannon View Post
    I work in finance, and did a Physics degree quite a while ago so I'm by no means a statistician. Isn't that what would happen with a low drop rate without BLP (sounds like a vaguely normally distributed result)?

    I definitely agree that the chances are higher on the first couple though.
    The deviation would be higher. I have now over 90 legendaries over 14 chars, and I can pretty much predict +-4 days when my next legendary is due. You can be lucky and get it significantly earlier, but I am yet to be unlucky and get it significantly later.

    A few numbers: With just doing the EC daily plus the legion supplies you get via the app you are getting a legendary every ~35 days. Considering the chance is equal for all those events, we are looking at 35 daily caches plus ~20 legion caches plus ~5 paragon caches, so about 60 chances to get a legendary.

    So if it was linear (getting one legendary every 60 attempts), we would have a chance of 1.6% to get a legendary. Using this fixed drop percentage, it would mean you would have a chance of over 50% to get it within the first 42 chances ((1-0.016)^42), which equals about 24 days . And looking at the other end, it would mean you would still have a 15% chance of not getting a legendary in 120 chances ((1-0.016)^120) which equals about 70 days.

    We don't have this kind of deviation ingame, at least I have not experienced this. As I said I can narrow down the latest expected drop of a legendary to about one week, this would not be possible with a fixed probability.

  5. #885
    I think there is something dirty about legendaries.
    In my experience, almost half of the legendaries I got, were from emissary caches that I skipped for 2 days.

    What I mean is that if you Skip day 1, skip day 2, and make 3 caches on day 3, you have much higher chances to get a legendary than make cache on day 1, make cache on day 2 and make cache on day 3.

    They enhance drop rate not for those with bad luck. They enhance chances on those that seems like are stopping playing game!

  6. #886
    You cant get legos from Paragon chests right?! Atleast that's what i heard
    R.I.P Cityfella 2004-2016 <Warrior for life>

  7. #887
    Quote Originally Posted by Puri View Post
    The deviation would be higher. I have now over 90 legendaries over 14 chars, and I can pretty much predict +-4 days when my next legendary is due. You can be lucky and get it significantly earlier, but I am yet to be unlucky and get it significantly later.

    A few numbers: With just doing the EC daily plus the legion supplies you get via the app you are getting a legendary every ~35 days. Considering the chance is equal for all those events, we are looking at 35 daily caches plus ~20 legion caches plus ~5 paragon caches, so about 60 chances to get a legendary.

    So if it was linear (getting one legendary every 60 attempts), we would have a chance of 1.6% to get a legendary. Using this fixed drop percentage, it would mean you would have a chance of over 50% to get it within the first 42 chances ((1-0.016)^42), which equals about 24 days . And looking at the other end, it would mean you would still have a 15% chance of not getting a legendary in 120 chances ((1-0.016)^120) which equals about 70 days.

    We don't have this kind of deviation ingame, at least I have not experienced this. As I said I can narrow down the latest expected drop of a legendary to about one week, this would not be possible with a fixed probability.
    Good Response, I have only one character with 10 leggos, so my sample size is obviously quite small, can certainly see the rationale there.

    Question: do you think this would still hold true if:

    1. The chances for every source were not equal (some things having higher drop %, as we seem to see in game)
    2. You heavily inflated the amount of attempts you were having by doing a lot of content?

    As I said, my statistics is rusty, but I would imagine above could have a compression effect on the time distribution of drops, leading to an answer which is more easily predictable? (As well as shorter tails?)

    I'm sure I could prove this out myself if i used a pen and paper and a lot of agonising over precisely how this worked from a mathematical point of view, but that's my gut feeling.

  8. #888
    Quote Originally Posted by Loosecannon View Post
    Good Response, I have only one character with 10 leggos, so my sample size is obviously quite small, can certainly see the rationale there.

    Question: do you think this would still hold true if:

    1. The chances for every source were not equal (some things having higher drop %, as we seem to see in game)
    2. You heavily inflated the amount of attempts you were having by doing a lot of content?

    As I said, my statistics is rusty, but I would imagine above could have a compression effect on the time distribution of drops, leading to an answer which is more easily predictable? (As well as shorter tails?)

    I'm sure I could prove this out myself if i used a pen and paper and a lot of agonising over precisely how this worked from a mathematical point of view, but that's my gut feeling.
    Using fixed probablity, we are looking at a assymetrical gaussian distribution bell with an open end at the right side.
    What you want to achieve is to narrow the body of the bell, this is not possible by either changing the drop chance or increasing the number of attempts - the first will just linearly grow the bell, and the latter will just narrow down your samples of attempts to the center of the bell.

    To make the main body of the bell larger you need to increase the probablity with every attempt, which is pretty much how they told us BLP works.

    Obviously there are many questions left on how the BLP really works, what increases it and by how much. But considering the predictability of legendary drops out of experience I am fairly certain it works as they say it does.

  9. #889
    I been tracking my Legos every time I got a new one. I do the same content every time and I now have all of mine for Havoc DH. It took roughly 3 weeks per Lego for the last 4. All I do is as follows: all the LFR's, Mythic+ till I have a 15 or 16 done, Current raid on heroic and normal, and the emissary's each day that is it.
    Xenodrake (Shadowpriest) <Infallible>US 7th (T13) US 12th (T12) US 7th (T11)

    Anticipation of Death is worse then Death itself.

  10. #890
    Its been 4-5 months since I went back to wow, and during this time I've found 15 legendaries so far on my warlock.

    I started tracking my legendaries/killpoints from rsuurd.github.io on my 6th legendary. Using the killpoints tracked I was able to predict a lot of legos drop.

    Here are some information about it

    Aff Lego Nbr Total Killpoints Legos Kps
    6 2653 265
    7 2974 321
    8 3390 416
    9 3765 375

    Changed Spec to Destro after last legos hit

    Destro Lego Nbr Total Killpoints Legos Kps
    5 4067 302
    6 4465 398

    Changed Spec back to Afflict after last legos hit

    Aff Lego Nbr Total Killpoints Legos Kps
    10 4734 269
    11 4865 131

    Changed Spec to Destro again after last legos hit

    Destro Lego Nbr Total Killpoints Legos Kps
    9 5644 779


    Statistics got a little messy in the end since I was changing spec a lot to get loot from ToS for my affliction main spec while other raids on destro. I will try to improve while doing that from now on ...

    As you can see, one lego between 300-400kps almost all the time, which corresponds to 1 week, or even 2 if you really really not that lucky.

    I felt a little change in the past weeks, because it seems it is not that regular anymore, I could find a legendary before 250kps, and the last one with 700kp, way far from 400kp which I was used to. I am not sure if they changed something related to drop rates in 7.2.5

    Every week, I complete all 4 raids in 3 difficulties Lfr / Normal / Heroic (except for Avatar/kj Heroic), I also complete all the emissary quests, weekly 15 cache, and a lot of legionfall supplies. I dont do reg mythic runs anymore since while I was tracking I ve found it very low help, kps gained on reg mythics arent worth for the time invested.



    Well, sry my bad english, hope this info can help to get some ideas...

  11. #891
    I feel kind of foolish looking back at my approach. Currently I have 13 Legendaries on my Mage, but wanted to complete Fire first. Although I have all the Fire legendaries, it now takes ages to get a good Frost one. I wish I checked out how it works months ago..\

    Edit: and a few days later I loot 2 good legendary's from Broken Shore caches. More than a month dry.
    Last edited by Nohara; 2017-08-15 at 08:28 PM.

  12. #892
    Hey Guys,

    small question related to bad luck protection increase.

    So I read this thread and a lot of people writing that they do all raids in all difficulties a week. On first page of this thread it says 2 Killpoints / boss in LFR mode.

    Also it says 2 Killpoints for each Heroic...

    So why doing LFR? Bosskills in Heroic will be way faster... or does it mean 2 Killpoints for each completed Heroic Dungeon?

    Also... I did not played for quite a longer time. Whats currently the fastest way to get another legendary? I still do not have my best in slot ... but ALL utility ones

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