Possible Countries in the Future

[Techno-Druid]

Possible new countries in the future and countries that are failed states or using a system that will ultimately lead it to collaspe *cough* North Korea *cough*.

I've heard about Calatonia wanting sovereignty from Spain. I also think there's a chance of a Scottish secession from the UK. China can only hold on to Hong Kong, Macua, Tibet and Xinjiang for so long, but the government seems so insistent on sending ethnic Han to Tibet and Xinjiang in order to "sinify" these areas. I think Veneto in Italy is going through a sovereignty movement, isn't it?

[Nefarious Tea]

Kosovo's status is also currently up in the air and it's quite a bit further along than any of your examples. It declared independence in 2008 and last I heard nothing had really happened.

North Korea is unlikely to fragment into new countries like the USSR did when it fell apart (partially because it is so tiny). If anything it'll be a bitter period of civil war as South Korea gradually reunites the country after dismantling the petty warlords all vying for control of North Korea as a whole. At least one nuclear device is likely to be used either against a rival warlord or against South Korea.

The Scottish secession referendum was actually in... 2014? And it failed, albeit narrowly. There is unlikely to be another one until the mid 2020's as it will take a while for the bureaucracy to churn, although some Scottish parliamentarians were calling for a referendum immediately after the Brexit and had they managed to have one this year it likely would have gone through, because the Brexit was fantastically stupid.

Hong Kong is fairly independent already, is it not? Similar to the Interbellum period Free City of Danzig (now Gdansk in Poland). Or am I thinking of Taiwan? >.>

I've never heard of Macua or Xinjiang, but until China is a true democracy (not the "people-totally-voted-honest "democracy" " which is so popular in Asian countries - by which I mean the continent not ethnically; I include Russia and the Middle East) it is unlikely to ceded nominally independent territory and create new sovereign nations.

[netherflame]

Hong Kong is fairly independent already, is it not? Similar to the Interbellum period Free City of Danzig (now Gdansk in Poland). Or am I thinking of Taiwan? >.>

It operates mostly independently but is considered to be property of China.

Unpopular opinion.

There have been people suggesting that America might be a candidate to eventually split into separate countries and then form a EU like union. Something like the West Coast, Southern Midwest and Southeast, The Plains, and the North Eastern Seaboard. Its honestly not that crazy of an idea because of the dramatic differences in climate and topography, but the government would never let that happen.

[Independent voter]

Canausa or Usacana. 10chars

[Laerrus]

North Korea is unlikely to fragment into new countries like the USSR did when it fell apart (partially because it is so tiny). If anything it'll be a bitter period of civil war as South Korea gradually reunites the country after dismantling the petty warlords all vying for control of North Korea as a whole. At least one nuclear device is likely to be used either against a rival warlord or against South Korea.

Koreans are nothing like that and there will not be "warlords" rushing in to do a power grab like what usually happens in the Middle East. The Kim crime family will not likely fall for a while, the resistance is much too weakened and the majority of the populace is too brainwashed to mount an effective rebellion. The odds stacked against the individual are overwhelming, this is why those people that "awaken", make a desperate attempt to defect to the RoK via China.

[Nefarious Tea]

Koreans are nothing like that and there will not be "warlords" rushing in to do a power grab like what usually happens in the Middle East. The Kim crime family will not likely fall for a while, the resistance is much too weakened and the majority of the populace is too brainwashed to mount an effective rebellion. The odds stacked against the individual are overwhelming, this is why those people that "awaken", make a desperate attempt to defect to the RoK via China.

You don't think military commanders will turn on each other in powergrabs if there was a vacuum in North Korea? Not all power comes from silver and gold; the very brainwashing you mention means the military is fanatically loyal to its commanders. I would expect military takeover attempts not terribly dissimilar to ancient Rome.

[Bumbasta]

I think that Scotland is the most likely at the moment, still not very likely.

Or Rhodesia!.. meh..

edit: Kurdistan might be a possibility as well in the near future. Since Turkey is moving closer to Russia and the Kurds are battling IS, the USA might actually support it. But that's very speculative though.

[Deleted]

I heard tencharopolis is about to evolve

[Docturphil]

Scottish secession from the UK...

Finally, William Wallace's death will not have been in vain.

[Techno-Druid]

I think that Scotland is the most likely at the moment, still not very likely.

Or Rhodesia!.. meh..

edit: Kurdistan might be a possibility as well in the near future. Since Turkey is moving closer to Russia and the Kurds are battling IS, the USA might actually support it. But that's very speculative though.

Completely forgot about Kurdistan. I could see the Kurdish-controlled regions in Iraq and Syria uniting, but it would take a miracle for the Kurdish regions in Turkey and Iran from uniting.

I doubt Rhodesia will ever come back, but I think if and when Mugabe dies, there may be some changes, I've heard that some of the land has already been given back to the white farmers and even if that doesn't work...I guess there's Namibia and Botswana...

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It operates mostly independently but is considered to be property of China.

Unpopular opinion.

There have been people suggesting that America might be a candidate to eventually split into separate countries and then form a EU like union. Something like the West Coast, Southern Midwest and Southeast, The Plains, and the North Eastern Seaboard. Its honestly not that crazy of an idea because of the dramatic differences in climate and topography, but the government would never let that happen.

Macau was a Portuguese-controlled island "returned" to China in the 90s, while Xinjiang was a Turkic, Islamic territory annexed by China.

[Afrospinach]

I doubt Rhodesia will ever come back, but I think if and when Mugabe dies, there may be some changes, I've heard that some of the land has already been given back to the white farmers and even if that doesn't work...I guess there's Namibia and Botswana...

That is a WTF. Zim has problems, but not those kind of problems. Why would any of the neighbouring countries want anything to do with them politically anyway? More likely something will happen in the Congo, seeing as their president has lived up to the stereotype of African politicians and refused to give up his power. But again, that is not really a sovereignty issue.

There are a couple of good youtube vids out there about this, Catalonia is probably the most likely but they are all moonshots, even USA makes the list for countries that will split up just for perspective.

Scotland is already it's own country, succeeding from the union not really the same thing.

[Youn]

The United States isn't likely to split up at this point. We have people that complain all the time but a centralized government that would immediately squash any attempted succession. We did this one in 1876, it failed miserably. It won't happen a second time.

Unlike the USSR that was built of a large number of conquered countries with totally different social political systems. Most Americans are fine with their current method of governing. You may see social unrest at times but that is the very nature of our political system. Also, any rift you see in Republican vs Democrats is more a rift of Urban vs Rural population. The coasts have large urban democrat areas and the central area has large Rural Republican areas. But, the people in the city cannot survive without the people in plains. Well, unless they import everything they want to eat.

[Deleted]

Canausa or Usacana. 10chars

Never gonna happen. USA will be annexed by the PRC anyway, and Canadians will cheer in the streets.

[Tijuana]

Possible new countries in the future and countries that are failed states or using a system that will ultimately lead it to collaspe *cough* North Korea *cough*.

I've heard about Calatonia wanting sovereignty from Spain. I also think there's a chance of a Scottish secession from the UK. China can only hold on to Hong Kong, Macua, Tibet and Xinjiang for so long, but the government seems so insistent on sending ethnic Han to Tibet and Xinjiang in order to "sinify" these areas. I think Veneto in Italy is going through a sovereignty movement, isn't it?

California from the US, not because we let them secede, but because we will kick them out.

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Never gonna happen. USA will be annexed by the PRC anyway, and Canadians will cheer in the streets.

Get serious. China couldn't defeat East LA gangs, much less the actual military of ours. They don't even have a way to get here.

[nextormento]

I suspect these secession movements (Catalonia, Scotland, Quebec, Wallonia...) to eventually be resolved or soothed through concessions. Their cultural struggles are easily swayed by economic interests, and it just so happens that our world is shaped by massive political unions. In that line, I imagine some countries will join up in federations. The most obvious being the EU, but that'll happen bit by bit with things like an Iberian federation joining Spain and Portugal or something.
Other than that, I also expect mars colonizers to try and form their own state that may or may not join into any earth union.

[Deleted]

China couldn't defeat East LA gangs

Neither could your own military, otherwise they'd already have done so.

[Tijuana]

Neither could your own military, otherwise they'd already have done so.

Actually that is illegal in the US. We don't have a Tieneman Square here. Just sayin...

Seriously though, China and it's 5 most powerful friends are no match for the US, and most acknowledge that.

[Deleted]

Actually that is illegal in the US. We don't have a Tieneman Square here.

That's not the same, the military would be justified to defeat them because they're a serious threat to public security.

[Tijuana]

That's not the same, the military would be justified to defeat them because they're a serious threat to public security.

Yeah, no. Our military does not operate within our borders against us. That is not how our government works. We don't drive tanks down main street, crushing protesters and the like.

[Deleted]

Yeah, no. Our military does not operate within our borders against us. That is not how our government works. We don't drive tanks down main street, crushing protesters and the like.

"Us"? "Protesters"? Gang members are no such thing, they're domestic terrorists.