There really is no example in history proving your point. You aren't suddenly facing war even less in this time and age. What has your focus, Russia, done that was not predictable? Ukraine was very unstable for a very long time reaching the breaking point with annexation of Crimea. This was not a sudden military "oh look we win, so take it"-action but a 99% political thing. And since I am not living under a rock and indeed have vast knowledge about social and political science I tell you that only people living in echo-chambers, rocks and whatnot will let their politics lead them into a full-out physical war.
Hell tbh any kid playing fantasy games like Civilization successful have more rationality than your scenario & reaction. Play it - you will be constantly the superpower that could easily take over all neighbors who bully or annoy you. But you will not win this game.