Former Hillary supporters: When and what made you turn away?

[schwarzkopf]

No polls did not predict her to win by a landslide.

Polls predicted her to win by as much as she did win by ... polls measure popular support.

The models (not polls) predicted a low chance of losing the presidency ... which was also true.

[ControlWarrior]

Obama's predictability was a blessing, his 'dreaminess' was his major flaw. He believed in people that shouldn't have been believed in. In a less polite fashion one might say he was weak.

He didn't fight when fighting was required, he continued to thing that people would 'see things rationally'... well he was wrong.

Predictability is not an asset in IR. Just means other state actors can make accurate assumptions about your behavior. In the case of Obama, he wouldn't retaliate.

- - - Updated - - -

The "media" didn't predict anything with any mathematical credibility. They can state their opinion on how people may vote but that's it. It's not the polls faults they misinterpreted them.

Well, that was the fault of their pollsters wasn't it? Cause all the major polls had her winning outside the margin of error.

[schwarzkopf]

Cause all the major polls had her winning outside the margin of error.

But she did win in the metric the pollsters measured... that's the point.

[Allybeboba]

The "media" didn't predict anything with any mathematical credibility. They can state their opinion on how people may vote but that's it. It's not the polls faults they misinterpreted them.

The media can sway public opinion. They do it each and every day.

[ControlWarrior]

But she did win in the metric the pollsters measured... that's the point.

I see where your going, but that isn't exactly correct. First you have state, and federal polls. Second, a lot of people where making predictions about the EC using the polling data.

[Deleted]

One person, one vote.

That viewpoint is so naïve in a country so big and diverse as the USA.

your vote in the state of NY would matter far less than if you were a resident of WY

Culture influences politics, and if the city, local politics and your upbringing is mostly democrat, you will likely vote democrat. If you were brought up on solidarity, you will most likely vote democrat. If you were brought up on freedom, you will likely vote republican.
The political map of the 2016 presidential election should show exactly why the Electoral College is a good thing. States still have autonomy, and as long as they do, no federal policy shall influence their say.

New York City is Wyoming 14 times over, in a fraction of the geographical area. Might aswell ditch the "united states" part and call it the American Federation at this point. Wyoming is just midwestern leftovers, right?

[Allybeboba]

Polls predicted her to win by as much as she did win by ... polls measure popular support.

The models (not polls) predicted a low chance of losing the presidency ... which was also true.

I bet the polls didn't predict that over 13%(8.75 million) of her votes would come from a single state.

[schwarzkopf]

I see where your going, but that isn't exactly correct.

It is exactly correct... the last poll results (from an aggregation):

POLL : Clinton 47.3%, Trump 42.0%, Undecided > 10%
ELECTION : Clinton 48.0% Trump 45.9%

What you are referring to is modelling, where they try to determine the winner of the EC, but that is not polling.

The modelling also got it right, they predicted a significant but small chance Trump would win, even specifying the conditions required for such a win. Guess what - those conditions they said were required, were what got Trump into office.

- - - Updated - - -

I bet the polls didn't predict that over 13%(8.75 million) of her votes would come from a single state.

Actually common sense would tell you that around one 1/8th of her vote might come from 1/8th of the country

[Celista]

That viewpoint is so naïve in a country so big and diverse as the USA.

Culture influences politics, and if the city, local politics and your upbringing is mostly democrat, you will likely vote democrat. If you were brought up on solidarity, you will most likely vote democrat. If you were brought up on freedom, you will likely vote republican.
The political map of the 2016 presidential election should show exactly why the Electoral College is a good thing. States still have autonomy, and as long as they do, no federal policy shall influence their say.

New York City is Wyoming 14 times over, in a fraction of the geographical area. Might aswell ditch the "united states" part and call it the American Federation at this point. Wyoming is just midwestern leftovers, right?

It is not naiive, it is *because* the US is so diverse that all votes should count EQUALLY to one another. Especially in federal elections, because we all have a stake in it.

I agree, political views are partially due to culture. But I also think there's something innate about them, as well. I grew up in a red state, had Republican parents, had adults that I liked and respected that were conservative. Went to youth group and church on a weekly basis.

By all measures, I should have been Republican. But I have been registered Green Party since I turned 18, and have always been a liberal. But, I think living in a red state has been a blessing in regards to understanding that people who have different political affiliations are not all that different from who I am and that fundamentally every person in this country wants the same thing, even when our views are divergent from one another.

[Allybeboba]

It is exactly correct... the last poll results (from an aggregation):

POLL : Clinton 47.3%, Trump 42.0%, Undecided > 10%
ELECTION : Clinton 48.0% Trump 45.9%

What you are referring to is modelling, where they try to determine the winner of the EC, but that is not polling.

The modelling also got it right:

- - - Updated - - -



Actually common sense would tell you that around one 1/8th of her vote might come from 1/8th of the country

The polls predicted her to win in certain states. Certain very important states. She did not win those states, that was the tipping point.

[schwarzkopf]

The polls predicted her to win in certain states. Certain very important states.

Name one such state ?

[Deleted]

Shes not a likeable person on any level. Not until after the election.. When she had a candid exxhange with a woman she ran into in the woods near one of their homes, only then did i see her as relatable,humane.

Policy wise they both seemned crap imo.

[ControlWarrior]

What do you mean outside the margin of error? Regardless, polls don't predict the fucking future, they can be off more than the margin of error, but they weren't.

- - - Updated - - -



What does this have to do with what you quoted?

It's okay, let me help. So, margin of error basically refers to the internal validity of the poll. Lower MOE means the poll has greater internal validity. Higher MOE means less internal validity. So, if a poll has Clinton ahead by 5%, and the poll has a 3% MOE, you can likely assume that the poll's result is an accurate reflection.

[schwarzkopf]

Policy wise they both seemned crap imo.

Indeed, the only rational choice was to avoid the mad man.

- - - Updated - - -

So, if a poll has Clinton ahead by 5%, and the poll has a 3% MOE, you can likely assume that the poll's result is an accurate reflection.

Here is OHIO's simulation results before election (aggregation):

The simulation uses poll results to attempt thousands of scenarios to determine likely outcomes..

[Height]

I feel like whichever party won the election was really just shooting themselves in the foot for the future. It's good now, but there's going to be karma.

[Stabbyfists]

It was the whole "Wanting to start World War 3" thing.

She wanted to enact a no fly zone over Syria which every military expert and his dog would tell you would cause Russia to go to war with the United States. She knew this and she wanted it. The fact one of her major sources of donations was a company developing a Military Fighter plane adds some credence to this theory. She was also shown to be very pro war in the past.

Don't get me wrong. Trump is a moron but I would take the POSSIBILITY over going to war over the 100% GUARANTEE any day of the week.

[ControlWarrior]

Indeed, the only rational choice was to avoid the mad man.

- - - Updated - - -



Here is OHIO's simulation results before election (aggregation):

The simulation uses poll results to attempt thousands of scenarios to determine likely outcomes..

Who did the polling? The margin of error is fairly low.

[Allybeboba]

Yes, she lost by less than 100k votes combined among those states. Well within the margin of error. Now, please stop talking about things you have zero fucking clue about.

That is why a recount was asked for. Gasp!! And wouldn't concede until one was done.

[ControlWarrior]

Name one such state ?

Michigan...

[Allybeboba]

Yeah, I know how statistics work. Just making sure you knew what a margin of error was before telling you that you're wrong. Because you are. Polls predicted margin of error for popular vote, which she won. The electoral college prediction was based on the number of combinations of states each candidate had to win and the most unlikely ones weren't counted. As in, Trump would never win California so that wasn't part of any path to victory for Trump. Clinton had many more paths to victory than Trump. He ended up winning with a combination of states that was considered extremely unlikely.

We all should have taken that Vegas bet!!