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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Coconut View Post
    This is exactly why I hate mounts with such abysmally low drop rates, because the effects of being unlucky are truly retarded. It's one thing when you are unlucky with Invincible or Elegon and it takes you 450 or 600 kills, that still only around 2 years with a reasonable number of 5 characters each week. Being unlucky with Sha or Oondasta, or any other, and farming with your regular chars, not 50 farming muppets, means you can farm for a decade or two without any results. And that's basically cruel mockery towards unlucky collectors.
    not trying to derail, there should be a bad luck protection on mounts too, cuz, yeah, u know, lifetime (bzzd doesnt want us to play 80h/week btw, 5xICC/week reasonable, kkhf)

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Avenging Wrath View Post
    not trying to derail, there should be a bad luck protection on mounts too, cuz, yeah, u know, lifetime (bzzd doesnt want us to play 80h/week btw, 5xICC/week reasonable, kkhf)
    Absolutely agreed. In early WoD I argued increasing the drop rate for world boss mounts to something more reasonable, and personally I'd still agree to it today because it was shit design to begin with, but I can understand how it's too late now, after many people raked up an insane amount of kills or paid millions for them at the BMAH (though that is relative, ppl payed gold cap for Ashes of Al'ar as well in MoP).

    P.S. 5xICC a week is very reasonable if you use a save and go straight to the LK, then it takes about an hour (and between demon hunters and the character boosts we had, many players probably have 5 chars).
    Last edited by Coconut; 2017-03-23 at 11:53 AM.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Coconut View Post
    First of all, we don't know if it's 1 in 2.000 or 1 in 1.000 or 1 in 666. These are just some numbers that players kept saying to each other since MoP and in time they became popular wisdom, sort of like people in the distant past used to believe that the Earth is flat.

    If you want to estimate the drop rate correctly, you need a relatively large sample size - not of collectors, but of actual mount drops: you take 300 Oondasta mounts, you find out how many kills it took for each one to drop, and you calculate the average. Obviously, it is impossible for us to compile this information, because even if we can find 300 ppl with the mount, we don't know how many kills they had on that account, or if they had any extra mounts drop or not.

    The only way to find out is if Blizzard tells us, but the problem is they seem reluctant to acknowledge the fact that people purposely farm these mounts. They weren't put in to be farmed, they were put in to be random and legendarily rare, something the devs thought was "cool" (but in a reward-driven mmo-rpg that is, obviously, retarded). The bosses were not designed around being farmed by max level characters 2 expansions later, hence the issues with Galleon and Oondasta in WoD and now with Sha.


    That being said, the numbers you mention are not out of the ordinary statistically. Let's say, for the sake of the argument, that the drop rate is 0,1%, or one in 1.000. In that case, there is a (1 – 0,999^2.800)x100 = 94% chance that the mount would drop in 2.800 attempts. So naturally, the vast majority of people who have the mount have less than 2.800 kills. Even if the drop rate was lower, 0,05%, or 1 in 2.000, the probability of getting a drop in 2.800 attempts would be 75%, still a vast majority of participants.

    The probability of getting a mount (well, of any probabilistic event being triggered) before you reach the average number of kills is always higher than the probability of getting it after. This is because there is no upper limit on bad luck, and in the end the numbers have to balance out. If it was usual for the drop to take 5.000 attempts, the drop rate would simply not be 1 in 1.000/2.000, but much lower. Just look at how probability progresses for a 0,1% mount:

    - there is a 10% chance you get it in 100 kills.
    - there is a 26% chance you get it in 300 kills.
    - there is a 40% chance you get it in 500 kills.
    - there is a 64% chance you get it in 1000 kills (chance is higher than 50% to get it before the average).
    - there is a 90% chance you get it in 2.300 kills.
    - there is a 99% chance you get it in 4.500 kills.
    - you will never reach 100% even in a million kills.

    Do you see how the number of kills required ramp up more and more for a smaller and smaller probability increase? This means it is very, very unlikely for the mount not to drop after so many kills, but it is certainly possible, and at this point the exact number doesn't even matter, you are just super unlucky with this one mount.

    So you are looking at it the wrong way, it's not that there is a bug because you can't find people who got it in more than 2.800 attempts, it's that the situation you want to find it implies a combination of two very very very rare occurrences: a) someone having that many attempts in the relatively limited time since the boss was added in game, and b) someone being that incredibly unlucky with it*, with c) said person actually reading your post and wanting to respond being the icing on the cake.


    This is exactly why I hate mounts with such abysmally low drop rates, because the effects of being unlucky are truly retarded. It's one thing when you are unlucky with Invincible or Elegon and it takes you 450 or 600 kills, that's still only around 2 years with a reasonable number of 5 characters each week. Being unlucky with Sha or Oondasta, or any other, and farming with your regular chars, not 50 farming muppets, means you can farm for a decade or two without any results. And that's basically cruel mockery towards unlucky collectors.
    Very interesting post once again for one who likes statistics like me.

    It's to be said that I already knew most of this stuff btw, as in the chance keeps increasing (over the course of kills) slower and slower without ever reaching 100%, so that you can never be sure you'll get it.

    But true, actually someone started saying 0,05% drop for these mounts, but no one ever got precise info, because we are wasting a lot of possible sample size here since wowhead doesn't track the drop of these mounts, unlike for example onyxia etc., these mounts appear straight in inventory (and at this point this fact is the biggest reason for me to wonder if there's some bug with it, the rest really makes sense) and for this reason people with wowhead client don't help determining a drop rate.

    There's wowdb which lists oondasta as a 0,1%, not sure how accurate it could be, but it could make sense it was indeed 1 in 1.000 for each attempt, as in kill + roll counts as 2, since we start to have quite a few people who got really unlucky for a 1 in 1.000: a couple with 2.200, one with 2.372, one with 2.800, 2 with 4.600 or more.

    And yes, also makes sense that it's really hard to find people with the 3 features, as in unlucky enough, who have enough chars to be able to have so many kills, especially with only 7 months after spawn rate has been reduced to 15 min, and who see the post.

    And actually, the mount you get as a reward for having 300 mounts, that heavenly azure cloud serpent is now higher but used to be 0,5% when the achi was still decently hard to do, this would hint that there are 1 in 200 serious collectors in the world, and with an assumption of 10.000.000 players it would be 50.000 who probably would continue farming a mount for thousands of kills before giving up, so me checking the top 100-150 collectors is really a small sample size to find extremely unlucky people, in fact 2.800 is already a lot, if we assume even a top 40.000 collector would do 2.000 oondasta kills if he had to.

    And yes, I hate these kind of drop rates too, and they're exactly the reason why I haven't bothered with oondasta thus far: I knew drop rate was at the very least lower than 1 in 200, so at the very least I wanted a 15 min respawn to farm it, and to be honest, I still didn't have galleon when it has been fixed (spawn time), it was early august, and I did NOT touch it, since I was sure its drop rate was bad enough (1 in 1.000 or 1 in 2.000 or the likes for sure): I simply farmed oondasta and kept checking bmah till it finally spawned on draenor in mid november and got it for 1,412 mil and let me just say after my oondasta experience: I DO NOT regret paying 3,35 mil total and doing very few kills for nalak + sha + galleon.

    And bad luck protection would be something good too, only for the mounts that have such a bad drop rate that they need it, so the typical 7: love rocket, rukhmar, timereaver, 4x mop world bosses (and I have 5 out of 7 of these, doesn't make their drop rate any more fair than the others).

  4. #44
    Back in MoP, wowhead showed a single, very low drop rate for every personal loot item, meaning everything from world bosses and LFR. I can't remember if it was 0,2 or 0,5 or 0,05%, or even 0,02%, but I think that's where it started. Because people would just click on the mount itself and it would show that drop rate. That, or people simply went from "it's too rare to be 1%, must be 0,1%", to "it's 0,1% WITH coin" and they came up with 1 in 2.000. Would be nice if Blizzard actually told us.

    I don't think loot going directly into bags can cause any bug. That has nothing to do with drop rates. Bad luck protection could, but there is no bad luck protection related directly to the mounts (that I know of), and the one for loot works as intended, so there probably is no bug. Again, why exactly would this bug trigger at 2.800 kills or whatever the record was? That could only happen if there is a line of code linking the drop rate of the mount to the number of kills, and there is no reason for such a line to exist.

    Now, people who come on the forums to post about the mount are either those who get very lucky, or those who get super unlucky. As I said in the previous post, statistically the percentage of people who get it at 100 attempts is equal to the percentage of people who don't have it at 2.300 (if the drop rate is 1 in 1.000). But the people with 100 attempts are vastly more numerous than those with 2.300, because by now it is reasonable to get 100 rolls even without trying to farm it, but 2.300 is still far off even for many collectors (I am at 1.400 attempts and I consider myself a serious collector, though sometimes I did skip farming and I occasionally take breaks from WoW). So you will see a lot of people bragging they got it early, but only a handful who didn't get it by 2.300. It's normal.


    As far as serious collector go, it's hard to judge them by the achievement, because there are almost 50 store, RAF and TCG mounts, so there's a large gap between people who only farm in game and people who pay cash for mounts and/or have a lot of gold to buy TCGs on the AH (or are from the US, where TCG mounts are a lot cheaper), not to mention there are a lot of discontinued mounts too.

    Back in WoD, when the achievement was introduced, it was very hard as a veteran player with ~10 discontinued mounts to reach 300 in game-only, and as a new player you literally NEEDED world boss and mythic mounts to make the cut. But if you just bought the store & RAF mounts and added in a few TCGs you'd break it easily. So it's not a good indicator of people who would farm world bosses intensively.

    I'll tell you one thing though... I would never pay millions of gold for a mount I can technically get in game. I don't even have enough to buy the spider yet (well, not on a single server), and if I had the gold I'd rather spend it on mounts that are impossible to get, or save it for future gold sinks, maybe buy a boost run so i don't have to farm a mythic boss 2 expansions in the future. You better not touch Galleon, Sha and Nalak ever, or they might randomly drop a mount just to spite you :P

  5. #45
    Bloodsail Admiral Explicit Teemo Nudes's Avatar
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    When did they change it so that you can coin them?

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Explicit Teemo Nudes View Post
    When did they change it so that you can coin them?
    It's always been this way for the MoP world bosses. Well, after they were actually added to the loot tables for Sha and Galleon.

    Doesn't apply to Ruk or the MoP raid mounts though.

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  7. #47
    Bloodsail Admiral Explicit Teemo Nudes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PuppetShowJustice View Post
    It's always been this way for the MoP world bosses. Well, after they were actually added to the loot tables for Sha and Galleon.

    Doesn't apply to Ruk or the MoP raid mounts though.
    Hm. I recall a dev or a blue once stating that we can't coin them, but guess I remember it wrong then.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Coconut View Post
    Back in MoP, wowhead showed a single, very low drop rate for every personal loot item, meaning everything from world bosses and LFR. I can't remember if it was 0,2 or 0,5 or 0,05%, or even 0,02%, but I think that's where it started. Because people would just click on the mount itself and it would show that drop rate. That, or people simply went from "it's too rare to be 1%, must be 0,1%", to "it's 0,1% WITH coin" and they came up with 1 in 2.000. Would be nice if Blizzard actually told us.

    I don't think loot going directly into bags can cause any bug. That has nothing to do with drop rates. Bad luck protection could, but there is no bad luck protection related directly to the mounts (that I know of), and the one for loot works as intended, so there probably is no bug. Again, why exactly would this bug trigger at 2.800 kills or whatever the record was? That could only happen if there is a line of code linking the drop rate of the mount to the number of kills, and there is no reason for such a line to exist.

    Now, people who come on the forums to post about the mount are either those who get very lucky, or those who get super unlucky. As I said in the previous post, statistically the percentage of people who get it at 100 attempts is equal to the percentage of people who don't have it at 2.300 (if the drop rate is 1 in 1.000). But the people with 100 attempts are vastly more numerous than those with 2.300, because by now it is reasonable to get 100 rolls even without trying to farm it, but 2.300 is still far off even for many collectors (I am at 1.400 attempts and I consider myself a serious collector, though sometimes I did skip farming and I occasionally take breaks from WoW). So you will see a lot of people bragging they got it early, but only a handful who didn't get it by 2.300. It's normal.


    As far as serious collector go, it's hard to judge them by the achievement, because there are almost 50 store, RAF and TCG mounts, so there's a large gap between people who only farm in game and people who pay cash for mounts and/or have a lot of gold to buy TCGs on the AH (or are from the US, where TCG mounts are a lot cheaper), not to mention there are a lot of discontinued mounts too.

    Back in WoD, when the achievement was introduced, it was very hard as a veteran player with ~10 discontinued mounts to reach 300 in game-only, and as a new player you literally NEEDED world boss and mythic mounts to make the cut. But if you just bought the store & RAF mounts and added in a few TCGs you'd break it easily. So it's not a good indicator of people who would farm world bosses intensively.

    I'll tell you one thing though... I would never pay millions of gold for a mount I can technically get in game. I don't even have enough to buy the spider yet (well, not on a single server), and if I had the gold I'd rather spend it on mounts that are impossible to get, or save it for future gold sinks, maybe buy a boost run so i don't have to farm a mythic boss 2 expansions in the future. You better not touch Galleon, Sha and Nalak ever, or they might randomly drop a mount just to spite you :P
    Instead, because of the bug which I argued about, I ALWAYS kill nalak when I go to tot if it's up etc., they have such a drop rate that bug or not bug they never drop, I never dropped a mop world boss, ever, and even if it dropped again at this time I wouldn't mind!

    I also don't like paying millions of gold for a mount, for example stuff like mimiron's head etc. I'd have never paid since they're easily farmable, I just draw a line at 1 in 200 drop usually, if it's under that and it's buyable with reasonable amount I will, so I bought those 3 and would've got even oonda, but only BEFORE doing so many kills, if it were on BMAH, if a timereaver dropped in group to someone poor on my realm who didn't care, I'd pay 1 mil for that, and so on, if I didn't have the others with silly drop I listed.

    Because I can't do anything with "I can still get this mount" if when I try to farm it I will embark in a several years long farming with 81 chars a week + coins, at that point I ignore the thing completely and farm gold in that time, more efficient.

    But yes, I didn't get spider yet and prefer saving gold for boosts for example, gul'dan and other mount that will come, before drop rate is lowered, since spider is always there, when vendor is there ofc.

    And also I am against paying several millions for a single mount, most expensive for me was the blue spectral tiger 2,3 mil (indeed in us people have it easier than eu to get tcg mounts) and even 3 mil for swift spectral felt too much for me, so you can bet I wouldn't buy it now that it's 10 mil +, if something is that expensive I just don't buy it unless I have 100 mil + and especially unless I can make a lot, right now I have 19,5 mil but can make very little, it's all from wod.

    Quote Originally Posted by Avenging Wrath View Post
    some call it insanity, others commitment, pls quit gaming and develop a cure for cancer

    2200x5min=183,33h=7day15,33h
    Well, oondasta takes me around 8h average with all chars, coins included, calculating about 30 resets that's 240 hours spread across 7 months on it (might want to add some when current) but it's really nothing for a world boss mount where you get unlucky, example lifebinder's handmaiden, with much better drop rate took me 254 kills and around 230 hours back at 90 with wod pre patch, spread across 6 weeks + some kills before that; going to need a bigger bag, the insane timeless achi, 540 hours across 1,5 months, and finally if someone farmed oondasta and galleon when they were 2h respawn (and some did) even just with 10 chars a week, that's an average of 20 hours per week spent across the 2, if they didn't get it in 12 resets, as in 240 total attempts each including coins (and that's super lucky to get them so early) they would spend more time than me, in fact whoever farmed them when they were 2h respawn for a while is likely in the thousands of hours spent on world bosses.

    So blame blizzard's drop rates, not the player, I wouldn't have farmed oonda if I could've got it for 1 mil like the others!
    Last edited by Esploratore; Yesterday at 12:25 AM.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by Explicit Teemo Nudes View Post
    Hm. I recall a dev or a blue once stating that we can't coin them, but guess I remember it wrong then.
    They said that you couldn't coin the raid mounts (MSV, ToT, and SoO mounts), but you could coin the world boss mounts (Galleon, Sha, Oon, and Nalak). And as the person you quoted said, they said you couldn't coin the Rukhmar mount.

    MoP: https://twitter.com/olandgren/status/428229005221691392
    Rukhmar: https://twitter.com/warcraftdevs/sta...762561?lang=en
    Last edited by masterhorus8; Yesterday at 12:34 AM.
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  10. #50
    just rng base took me 3 tries and I got the mount to drop

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