One year after Brexit referendum, economic slow down

[Natylyaz]

One year after the referendum, the economy of the UK has taken a hit:


(source: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...daily-chart-18)

I really have to leave this country before Brexit actually happens, Theresa won't save us.

[Mayhem]

@dribbles please tell the world how this is actually a win for the UK, the people are blind, enlighten them!

[Activi-T]

Blah blah blah economies fluctuate all the time, blah blah blah predictable until after Brexit deal is finalised, blah blah blah Tory scum hate the poor.

*Thread summary complete*

[Deleted]

Still really too early to see how this plays out.

I think it will play out extremely badly but you need to look at this in five years time to be certain.

[Natylyaz]

Still really too early to see how this plays out.

I think it will play out extremely badly but you need to look at this in five years time to be certain.

Agreed on both points.
But so far, actual wages have decreased, it's a factual net loss for everybody.

[Tomyris]

Hardly surprising. Not sure if brexit is a good or a bad thing for them but it was obvious it would have a negative impact short-term, like all drastic changes.

[Deleted]

Agreed on both points.
But so far, actual wages have decreased, it's a factual net loss for everybody.

Yes, it is just that I recall two months in from the referendum the Brexiteers were claiming the "doomongers" had got it wrong because Britain wasn't swallowed up in an earthquake or something. I'm reluctant to emulate that type of stupid reasoning on the other side of the argument even though the signals are not encouraging.

To be fair there are obviously a number of factors in wage decreases and I'd like to see the impact of Brexit separated from the random noise in a comprehensive study.

[Natylyaz]

Yes, it is just that I recall two months in from the referendum the Brexiteers were claiming the "doomongers" had got it wrong because Britain wasn't swallowed up in an earthquake or something. I'm reluctant to emulate that type of stupid reason on the other side of the argument even though the signals are not encouraging.

To be fair there are obviously a number of factors in wage decreases and I'd like to see the impact of Brexit separated from the random noise in a comprehensive study.

It's indeed most likely not a 1:1 correlation, but if you look at the situation during the year before June 2016, it's tough not to hint a strong correlation.
Especially on the pound value.

[cudomix]

I'd say this is not because of Brexit itself, but because of British goverment complete and utter cock-up of Brexit negotiations. Uncertainty is very bad for investors and markets.

[Natylyaz]

I'd say this is not because of Brexit itself, but because of British goverment complete and utter cock-up of Brexit negotiations. Uncertainty is very bad for investors and markets.

You have a point, but when you look at the Leave Campaign team, Britons could have been smarter and anticipate this.
And no mention of the single market on the ballot question is also a perfect recipe for disaster.

[dribbles]

One year after the referendum, the economy of the UK has taken a hit:

I really have to leave this country before Brexit actually happens, Theresa won't save us.

Please don't shut the door on the way out, and the more uk hating corbynistas that leave the better we will be.

@dribbles please tell the world how this is actually a win for the UK, the people are blind, enlighten them!

No the people were once blind, but now they see the light at the end of the Brexit tunnel. Strong and stable you see.

http://www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink....e-says-report/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/818...ver-jobs-boost

Even the biased state broadcaster is struggling now to find negatives about the UK following Brexit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40090366

[Natylyaz]

Please don't shut the door on the way out, and the more uk hating corbynistas that leave the better we will be.



No the people were once blind, but now they see the light at the end of the Brexit tunnel. Strong and stable you see.

http://www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink....e-says-report/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/818...ver-jobs-boost

Even the biased state broadcaster is struggling now to find negatives about the UK following Brexit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40090366

You suggest a link of the express as a serious source to discuss economy? And we're supposed not to laugh at your whole post? Next time, give us a link from the Sun or the Daily Mail, awesome neutral "journalism".
And you call me Corbynista? I'm a libertarian, this populist moron has no worthy idea in my opinion.

And about the negatives of Brexit, you have 5 graphs full of it from the economist.
Exports are irrelevant if actual wages and purchasing power are shrinking overall. Brexit was not supposed to benefit only the salmon fishermen.

And on my way out, you'll just lose my tax money and all the money I spend here, and no one to replace me since my company already has trouble finding Software developers. And ALL the money my company makes comes from Europe, so it's 100% loss for the UK if I leave.
But keep burying your head in the sand, North Korea will show you the light.

[Destump]

I'd say those are acceptable sacrifices, getting the power back to choose their own future as a nation in return.

I just don't get why people even accept the EU getting more and more powerful, and I'd say un-democratic(ignoring multiple referendums etc). EU officials just aren't accountable enough, and they act like it. Now, if the EU changed so that we can vote out people like Juncker etc more easily I'd be more accepting of it, but at the moment the EU just isnt transparent enough. Plus, they are threathening countries who don't take enough refugees in for their liking when they never have to deal with the bad sides of the crisis. At the moment, I would prefer my country to leave the EU too. If the EU changes, I would take a second look at it but the power the EU has is not acceptable. The EU was made as a peace project, and maybe an economic one. It was NOT ment to become a nation, at least they never presented it as much until it was pretty much too late to easily leave.

[Natylyaz]

I'd say those are acceptable sacrifices, getting the power back to choose their own future as a nation in return.

Because the UK is utterly powerless and has had all its liberties annihilated by joining the EU and having the ECJ which is virtually useless in 99.99% of cases.
But it's so much better to be poorer.

The UK had the best deal imaginable in the EU, which is governed by all its members, including the UK. The UK opted out of many programs, and still had a say in the decisions.
You need to read something else than the Sun to broaden your horizon.

[dribbles]

You suggest a link of the express as a serious source to discuss economy? And we're supposed not to laugh at your whole post? Next time, give us a link from the Sun or the Daily Mail, awesome neutral "journalism".
And you call me Corbynista? I'm a libertarian, this populist moron has no worthy idea in my opinion.

And about the negatives of Brexit, you have 5 graphs full of it from the economist.
Exports are irrelevant if actual wages and purchasing power are shrinking overall. Brexit was not supposed to benefit only the salmon fishermen.

And on my way out, you'll just lose my tax money and all the money I spend here, and no one to replace me since my company already has trouble finding Software developers. And ALL the money my company makes comes from Europe, so it's 100% loss for the UK if I leave.
But keep burying your head in the sand, North Korea will show you the light.

Since you asked I feel obligated.... https://www.thesun.co.uk/uncategoriz...t-bashing-imf/
but if graphs have more legitimacy heres one.... http://www.cityam.com/267157/british...lmost-30-years

But reference the bolded part in your post, your company exporting to Europe ought to be at least 15% more competitive since sterlings devaluation, how can you say Brexit is bad? Your company should be booming like most of the UK is.

If you really really must that week in magaluf during summer will still be possible after brexit you get that right? Isn't that libertarian enough for you?

[Natylyaz]

Since you asked I feel obligated.... https://www.thesun.co.uk/uncategoriz...t-bashing-imf/
but if graphs have more legitimacy heres one.... http://www.cityam.com/267157/british...lmost-30-years

But reference the bolded part in your post, your company exporting to Europe ought to be at least 15% more competitive since sterlings devaluation, how can you say Brexit is bad? Your company should be booming like most of the UK is.

If you really really must that week in magaluf during summer will still be possible after brexit you get that right? Isn't that libertarian enough for you?

As long as the UK imports more than it exports, the overall situation is a net loss. And that's what is happening, overall, purchasing power has decreased since the referendum (see the graphs from the economist, you're showing me the situation of manufacturing companies, this is not the UK overall).
Moreover, devaluation isn't a good way to boost exports, it's just a proxy for decreasing salaries, not a sign of actual improvement. It decreases the earning power of all residents, not just the overvalued ones, and it wouldn't work if every country started doing the same thing, that's not magic. Why do you think China doesn't devaluate to death all the time?

My company fares reasonably well, but that's not the point I was making, I was talking about me leaving, which is a net economic loss for the UK (hence for you): less software, less sales, less money.

What does Magaluf has anything to do with Brexit or libertarianism?

[Destump]

is everything about money for you, tho?

[Edge-]

is everything about money for you, tho?

Considering money was a big focus of the pro-Brexit campaign, if memory serves, it seems especially relevant to post-Brexit discussions.

[dribbles]

As long as the UK imports more than it exports, the overall situation is a net loss. And that's what is happening, overall, purchasing power has decreased since the referendum (see the graphs from the economist, you're showing me the situation of manufacturing companies, this is not the UK overall).
Moreover, devaluation isn't a good way to boost exports, it's just a proxy for decreasing salaries, not a sign of actual improvement. It decreases the earning power of all residents, not just the overvalued ones, and it wouldn't work if every country started doing the same thing, that's not magic. Why do you think China doesn't devaluate to death all the time?

My company fares reasonably well, but that's not the point I was making, I was talking about me leaving, which is a net economic loss for the UK (hence for you): less software, less sales, less money.

What does Magaluf has anything to do with Brexit or libertarianism?

It is not just manufacturing or exports though. Just looking at what today that eminent economist bank of england governor mark carney said about the economy overall and how if the UK continues to boom too quickly, interest rates may need to rise in the near future to try and control it.

Doesn't the future look bright? Why on earth would you leave, in fact it is so attractive for business here because of Brexit I don't believe you ever will.

[Pann]

It is not just manufacturing or exports though. Just looking at what today that eminent economist bank of england governor mark carney said about the economy overall and how if the UK continues to boom too quickly, interest rates may need to rise in the near future to try and control it.

Doesn't the future look bright? Why on earth would you leave, in fact it is so attractive for business here because of Brexit I don't believe you ever will.

Is that what you got from Carney's speech?

Anyway, I am sure this will make you happy - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40433450