The Texas Conundrum

[Mormolyce]

There was a shift in 2008, then it plateaued again.

Look at the decline in the red base though. Increasing number of independents.

Even the hatred of Obama in his second term only gained them a few percent.

[Kellhound]

I never said that ND should stop pumping. I said while they still can, they should start diversifying their economy. The more shale oil the US pumped, the lower the price of crude is going to be. OPEC countries are not going to stand by for long and watch the US take over their share of the market. Most of these countries can produce their oil cheaper than shale oil.

As an aside, in the latest sign of crude glut, aging supertankers are being used to store unsold oil off Singapore and Malaysia!

OPEC cannot afford to pump cheap oil, even less so than tight oil in many regards. And my point stands, ND has few viable options beyond natural resources.

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Look at the decline in the red base though. Increasing number of independents.

Even the hatred of Obama in his second term only gained them a few percent.

Increase in independents is not necessarily a shift Left.

[Mormolyce]

Increase in independents is not necessarily a shift Left.

Irrelevant, you use simple majority voting for everything so it will cause a vote split that leads to a blue victory.

But it is rather amusing watching you try to tell me that "less right" isn't "more left".

[Daelak]

Democrats have been predicting demographic destiny for a long time now. Heck after Obama it was supposed to be impossible for Dems to lose the White House right?

Census works on 10 year timescales, not whatever you are thinking in your mind.

[Kellhound]

Irrelevant, you use simple majority voting for everything so it will cause a vote split that leads to a blue victory.

But it is rather amusing watching you try to tell me that "less right" isn't "more left".

Because more independents does not mean "less right", just less Republican, there is a difference. (I will give you a hint, some voters feel the GOP is too liberal).

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Census works on 10 year timescales, not whatever you are thinking in your mind.

Well, Obama was President during the last one.......

[Daelak]

Well, Obama was President during the last one.......

Yeah, and 2010 showed the same trend as 2000, cities and their immediate suburbs are growing, while rural areas are struggling to sustain a population. The only constant is that representation, being a fixed number since the depression for some unknown reason, has made rural districts and states have an incredibly outsized representation on the federal level, which leads to the distortion and dysfunction of our political process currently.

[Kellhound]

Yeah, and 2010 showed the same trend as 2000, cities and their immediate suburbs are growing, while rural areas are struggling to sustain a population. The only constant is that representation, being a fixed number since the depression for some unknown reason, has made rural districts and states have an incredibly outsized representation on the federal level, which leads to the distortion and dysfunction of our political process currently.

Yet those fixed representors are dispersed based on population, which is why Nebraska has 3 and California has 53. The real cause of the issues with our current political process is the narrow ideology two party system that is very much fostering an "us vs them" mentality.

[Daelak]

Yet those fixed representors are dispersed based on population, which is why Nebraska has 3 and California has 53. The real cause of the issues with our current political process is the narrow ideology two party system that is very much fostering an "us vs them" mentality.

That is a symptom of the problem. You increase the amount of representation tenfold and abolish the senate, you would have representatives that actually represented their districts and could vote online instead of being in Washington. Let there be one or two major legislative weekends where all 4,350 representatives come to the district to make coalitions, or better yet have committee meetings in the communities, states, regions, where the coalitions are formed. This will objectively show the real popular support of political ideologies than any other action.

[Kellhound]

That is a symptom of the problem. You increase the amount of representation tenfold and abolish the senate, you would have representatives that actually represented their districts and could vote online instead of being in Washington. Let there be one or two major legislative weekends where all 4,350 representatives come to the district to make coalitions, or better yet have committee meetings in the communities, states, regions, where the coalitions are formed. This will objectively show the real popular support of political ideologies than any other action.

The House/Senate split was done intentionally to prevent tyranny of the large.
You could increase the House to 43500 and you would STILL have two narrow blocks.

[Daelak]

The House/Senate split was done intentionally to prevent tyranny of the large.
You could increase the House to 43500 and you would STILL have two narrow blocks.

There's no evidence that would occur, if anything coalitions would be formed on a regional economic basis, not by a state or political basis. Political identity would be aligned with local politics and issues, not a manufactured national identity that the major political parties do now.

[Kellhound]

There's no evidence that would occur, if anything coalitions would be formed on a regional economic basis, not by a state or political basis. Political identity would be aligned with local politics and issues, not a manufactured national identity that the major political parties do now.

Which is why state and local politics is not dominated by the two main parties

[Daelak]

Which is why state and local politics is not dominated by the two main parties

Which is more of a ingrained historical preference enjoyed by them, but the popularity of the major political parties are not anywhere near acceptable, so there is no reason to dismiss a change towards real community representation when citizens can actually see their representation has grown.

[Kellhound]

Which is more of a ingrained historical preference enjoyed by them, but the popularity of the major political parties are not anywhere near acceptable, so there is no reason to dismiss a change towards real community representation when citizens can actually see their representation has grown.

Which is why there is so much diversity in the number of viable local political parties.

[Daelak]

Which is why there is so much diversity in the number of viable local political parties.

Again, this is a historical preference both the republican and democratic party have enjoyed over the century, but it isn't some immutable truth in our democracy, a sweeping change like the one proposed would definitely give other political parties and coalitions a voice.

[Rasulis]

OPEC cannot afford to pump cheap oil, even less so than tight oil in many regards. And my point stands, ND has few viable options beyond natural resources.

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Increase in independents is not necessarily a shift Left.

Sooner or later, OPEC countries will stop holding back production. Especially when US shale oil production kept increasing.

Demand worldwide is expected to slow down even more due to stricter emission regulations in Europe (no surprise) and China (this one surprised even me). It is part of the reason that Volvo is going full electric by 2019. It is getting tougher to meet the new stricter emission threshold limits.

Keep in mind ND is not the only state in this situation. There are about a dozen states in the US whose economy is tightly tied to Oil/Gas.

Another little extra.

During the third annual Tight Oil Reservoirs California 2014 conference in Bakersfield, Chevron and Santa Barbara County-based Santa Maria Energy showcased technological advancements that have made working in the diatomaceous formations of western Kern county safer and cleaner.

The diatomites are so named because of the tiny marine organisms (diatoms) deposited millions of years ago in western Kern County and Santa Barbara County. It is relatively shallow rock formation. The most common technology is called cyclic steaming, also known as "huff and puff," or "steam fracking." The process injects steam at high pressure over a several-day period, lets it soak for a few days and then draws oil from the same well. It was considered a dangerous procedure because steam used in the procedure was rising to the surface and carrying with it oil and rocks that in some cases were flying hundreds of feet away.

Chevron claimed that they have come up with solutions to the problem. Petroleum engineer Ramon Elias, a vice president at Santa Maria Energy, said that using new procedure his company has experienced almost no seeping at its project in Santa Barbara County.

Elias said California's diatomites could contain as much as 80 billion barrels of oil, though he estimated their reserves at closer to 25 billion. The production cost? $10 per barrel.

[Deleted]

Entirely possible.


http://www.270towin.com/states/Texas

If it did then that would trigger the collapse of the 6th party system, and the political parties of today would have to do some drastic realignment.

This just shows that Texans didn't like Trump. It doesn't show that Texas is moving to the left.

[Crissi]

This just shows that Texans didn't like Trump. It doesn't show that Texas is moving to the left.

800k more Texans voted for Democrats this time vs 2012, while Republicans only gained 100k.

That's a fairly significant jump.

In addition to the much faster growing urban centers, which tend to be blue (Ft. Worth being an exception, but even Ft Worth is more moderate than the rural communities)

[Deleted]

Democrats have been predicting demographic destiny for a long time now. Heck after Obama it was supposed to be impossible for Dems to lose the White House right?

It's what happens when you live in a bubble. To them it seems like everyone is a leftist, because they only associate with leftists. It's exactly why Clinton strictly stuck to leftist friendly areas during her campaign. Texas isn't about to become blue because you have a few tech workers moving in... In fact, those people will more than likely come to see how Texas does things right when it comes to taxes and regulations. Jobs are moving to Texas because Texas is good for business. If anything happens Texas will likely just become more libertarian.

[Crissi]

It's what happens when you live in a bubble. To them it seems like everyone is a leftist, because they only associate with leftists. It's exactly why Clinton strictly stuck to leftist friendly areas during her campaign. Texas isn't about to become blue because you have a few tech workers moving in... In fact, those people will more than likely come to see how Texas does things right when it comes to taxes and regulations. Jobs are moving to Texas because Texas is good for business. If anything happens Texas will likely just become more libertarian.

What will make us more blue is if out current shitheads in Cruz, Abbot, and Patrick insist on pushing social conservatism over economic conservatism. Not to mention the insistence on getting into local business because "we must protect conservative citizens. Liberals though, screw them".

[Deleted]

800k more Texans voted for Democrats this time vs 2012, while Republicans only gained 100k.

That's a fairly significant jump.

In addition to the much faster growing urban centers, which tend to be blue (Ft. Worth being an exception, but even Ft Worth is more moderate than the rural communities)

Correlation is not causation. Texans didn't like Trump (he's not an actual conservative, and he's an asshole), and therefore less people came out to vote.