2 Kills, 2 Glaives: How Rare?

[Thanntos]

So, my guild killed Illidan last week, for the first time and got the MH Warglaive.
Tonight, killed him for the second time, we got the OH Warglaive.

I think I only know of 1 other guild that has done this, but how many more have, and whats the chance on this ever happening? I almost fell out of my seat when I saw it and on vent everyone was going nuts.

[numblocke]

Mh glaive -6% chance of dropping
Offhand Glaive- 7% chance of dropping

Given 2 weeks there is roughly a 4.76% chance of getting 1 of each glaive. Thus of the 1400 guilds that have killed illidan roughly 295 of them have had this happen at SOME point in their history.

Although some guilds (sk-gaming for instance) take 277+ days to get their first MH glaive, so its all luck

[Deleted]

we have my main (set completed) on the 15th kill, offhand on the 16th and another offhand on the 17th ^^

[HeyMonkeyFace]

So, my guild, The All Mighty of Suramar PvE, killed Illidan last week, for the first time and got the MH Warglaive.
Tonight, killed him for the second time, we got the OH Warglaive.

I think I only know of 1 other guild that has done this, but how many more have, and whats the chance on this ever happening? I almost fell out of my seat when I saw it and on vent everyone was going nuts.

ZOMG hax seriously tho...damn good luck on that one

[vaepor]

We got a MH glaive this week and a MH glaive last week.

[furydeath]

I think the rares drop I've ever seen was both parts of TF dropping one night.

[HeyMonkeyFace]

we got 6 epix on trash pulls going to the first boss in SSC once

[exhaze]

I'd like to end out a collective **** you from everyone who has farmed him for months and doesn't have a single rogue with a completed set >

Seriously though, congrats, don't let that rogue go

[Timding]

On top of that... a guild on my server, Barthilas got 3 MH glaives in 3 kills! WTF!

but anyways grats voodoo

[Flawedhero]

I'd like to end out a collective **** you from everyone who has farmed him for months and doesn't have a single rogue with a completed set >

Seriously though, congrats, don't let that rogue go

Amen to that. We've been doing one night clears for 6 months and only have one glaive which we got on our first kill...

EDIT-I've taken it upon myself to put in a ticket to the GMs every time we kill him and another one doesn't drop ;D
Will it resolve anything? Nah, probably not. Will I get a kick out of the GM responses? Probably so.

[15JAN2008]

the drop rates are buffed... its 10% for mh and OH is 15% ..... so donnt be surpise.

Glaives arent that good now... kiljaeden swords can easily compared

[Deleted]

Glaives arent that good now... kiljaeden swords can easily compared

What!? Glaive's are fantastic, There wont be any better weapon for the people that use them until WotLK, And what Swords from Kil'jaeden are you talking about exactly? as far as I am aware he doesn't drop any 1H Swords.

[Luminair]

Two guilds on my server, including my own, got our glaive on our first kill.

RNG, I guess.

[numblocke]

What!? Glaive's are fantastic, There wont be any better weapon for the people that use them until WotLK, And what Swords from Kil'jaeden are you talking about exactly? as far as I am aware he doesn't drop any 1H Swords.

Kil'jaeden drops 1h fist weps with more dps but less abilities, and 2 yellow slots.

http://static.mmo-champion.com/mmoc/...hedeceiver.jpg

[Deleted]

Kil'jaeden drops 1h fist weps with more dps but less abilities, and 2 yellow slots.

http://static.mmo-champion.com/mmoc/...hedeceiver.jpg

1) I know full well about the Fist

2) It isn't a sword.

3) No Warrior or Rogue with the MH Glaive is going to give it up for that, Enhancement Shamans rejoice

[d8abyte]

Aerie Peak - Uprising - Both Glaives In first 2 kills.. and another rogue has the off hand and after many more kills have not had the main hand drop.. Messed up drop rates if you ask me.

[gouly]

omg onyxia is deep breathing more this patch?????????????????

[numblocke]

1) I know full well about the Fist

2) It isn't a sword.

3) No Warrior or Rogue with the MH Glaive is going to give it up for that, Enhancement Shamans rejoice

I'm not disagreeing with that at all, *shrug* I'm just informing you as to what the other person was referencing. Shaman loot... just like EVERY other thing that drops ... *sigh*

We have a loot whore shaman of epic proportions in our guild... 3 offsets of full t6 and he's trying to whore sunwell loot with no dkp, lol.

[Alphanaut]

3 kills so far, first two were two MH glaives ;D.

[Dsswoosh]

Mh glaive -6% chance of dropping
Offhand Glaive- 7% chance of dropping

Given 2 weeks there is roughly a 4.76% chance of getting 1 of each glaive. Thus of the 1400 guilds that have killed illidan roughly 295 of them have had this happen at SOME point in their history.

Although some guilds (sk-gaming for instance) take 277+ days to get their first MH glaive, so its all luck

Hehe, not quite right.

Assuming a 6% chance for Main hand an 7% chance for Offhand, a more accurate way (although still kinda simplistic and doesn't take into account every possible outcome) to calculate the probablitly of this happening in 2 consecutive weeks is -

P = number of specific outcomes / total number of possible outcomes

and would work out as -

P = (6%) x (7%)
or
P = (6/100) x (7x100)
or
P = (0.06) x (0.07)

= 0.0042
= 0.42% of seeing successull main hand and offhand drop in a single occurrence (ie in 2 consecutive kills)

I couldn't find the number of guilds that have killed Illidan, but there are currently 1881 guilds that have killed Kalecgnos (http://www.wowprogress.com/), so based on this number (although im sure the number to have killed Illidan is probably double this)

0.42% of 1881 = (0.42/100) x 1881 = 7.9

So there should be approximately 8 guilds that have kill Kalegnos to see this happen.

The actual number should be lower than this though as you would also need to calculate the chances of 2 main hands dropping consecutively, 2 offhands dropping consecutively, no warglaies dropping at all. And im simply not clever enough to put this all together :'(