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  1. #1

    Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    I’d like to discuss two issues that have bothered me while pugging VoA in WoW. It is not about the game itself, but about the attitude players have.

    EDIT: Fixed math.

    Too many of a single class?

    The first issue is the attitude that people have in regards to several players of the same class joining a pug for VoA. I often see the following sentence:

    “No more DKs, please. We already have 4.”

    I think there is a rational/mathematical problem with this argument (it does of course apply to all classes).

    Let’s assume you’re the only DK in a raid. The chance of a DK-tier item dropping is of course not high (I’m not sure how low. I believe Emalon and Archavon each drop 2x tier-items). But if it does drops, you have a 100% chance of obtaining it. If another DK joins the raid, your chance is reduced to 50%. Another one, 33,33%. Another one 25%. Another one, 20%.

    So I can understand why a single DK would ask that no other DKs join (which is possible in a 10-man raid, but probably too much to ask in a 25-man). However, if you already are 2 DKs, I’m not sure it makes sense to be concerned about another one joining. I guess that 17% less chance of getting the tier is a lot, but you were down to 50% already. Most raids won’t have a problem with 3 DKs, but 4 or 5 are too many. Going from 4 to 5 will only reduce the chance of getting tier by 5%. How is that a problem? Apparently, you didn't mind going to 50% or 33%, so why is it a problem to go from 25% to 20%?

    And it gets more silly when people transfer this logic to OS. Guess what? The tier-tokens in OS are shared by 3 or 4 different classes. Getting another Mage, Rogue or Druid would reduce the chance of getting the token just as much as if you got another DK!

    I guess that people simply “panic” when they realize how low their odds are becoming. But this is not a very rational as far as I can see. So while you may argue that you are okay with 33%, but not with 25%, please make sure you have a good reason before you complain.


    Too many melee?

    The second issue is about another comment that I sometimes hear in a VoA-pug:

    "Sorry, we have too many melee."

    I think this is an example of people deluding themselves into believing that an encounter require things that it really doesn't. Of course, it is true that melee get a minor disadvantage against Emalon. They lose a few seconds of attacking (and may get their rotation screwed up) when they run between the boss to the adds. This means that a raid full of ranged with 3K DPS each would kill Emalon faster than a raid full of melee with 3K DPS each. It also means that if Emalon was an extremely hard raid-boss, it may have been necessary for the top-raiding guilds to bring more ranged than usual.

    However, this is not the reality. Emalon is pretty easy boss, even for a pug. If you fail on killing the empowered add in time (or Emalon enrages), there can be two causes:

    1. Some of your DPS did not attack the add in time.
    2. Everyone did attack the add, but the raid DPS is incredible low.

    It is NOT because there was too many melee in the raid!! And the Rogue that you refused to invite could very well be doing 5K DPS while you have three ranged doing 1.5K.

    Conclusion: There is no such thing as "too many melee" for Emalon.

  2. #2
    Moderator Nyanmaru's Avatar
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    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Think about this:

    4 DKs in the group
    1 DK only needs the PvE Tank gloves
    1 DK only needs the PvE DpS gloves
    1 DK only needs the PvP gloves
    1 DK only needs the PvP pants
    1 new DK joings and needs all of the above items -> -50% chance for the other DKs

    It's just like the old "UBRS dilemma" where you only invited 1 per class because of T0 drops (I saw druid drop on the first run with my druid, and afterwards never again for 92 runs and that was a 1/8 drop chance).
    It's not about a mathematical chance, but all about "see it drop once, bite your arse if you lose the roll because it will never ever drop again"


    100% melee Emalon is very well possible, no doubt about that, but all melee needs all melee to be awake, a caster that realizes a second too late that he needs to dps the adds too just turns around and starts to cast on the add, a melee has to run 3s and then starts to dps just arriving as the add hits it's 6th stack. Though there isn't just the 1 melee that fucks up, but also the other 3 melees that watched the one cool rogue and just assisted him. "All melee" just is a lot more error-prone as a mixed strat. And you can never know before that the 5k dps rogue you just invited is a complete blunthead that dies on the first nova and then spams "lol I got aggro and dies" in the raid chat.

    Anyways, I you know everything about a perfect group make-up, why do you even join PuGs and not just start one of your own, then you can invite all the DKs out there, add 2-3 healers and BAM there you go...

  3. #3

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    You have a low enough chance as is to get any given item from emalon as he drops 81 items in total. Each person you add cuts the already low odds of getting something. Its best to be as fair as you can with the group since its not a hard fight anyway...

  4. #4

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Just say what I say to people who cry. I can only invite those who whisper me.

  5. #5

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by Sweetcheeks
    4 DKs in the group
    1 DK only needs the PvE Tank gloves
    1 DK only needs the PvE DpS gloves
    1 DK only needs the PvP gloves
    1 DK only needs the PvP pants
    1 new DK joings and needs all of the above items -> -50% chance for the other DKs
    I don't think that's really an argument for having only 4 Death Knights as it's likely not going to happen like that. It could also be that the 1st or 2nd DK need all items or whatever. But of course, it is a good idea to be aware of what specs/roles each DK are. You can for instance invite a DPS DK and a tank DK, and each of them will still have a 100% chance of getting item.

    In regards to melee on Emalon, you are of course right (as I said) that melee get a disadvantage (on the Nova as well). But if you fail on the adds, it will in all cases be better to kick the players who are causing the problem, instead of denying invites to innocent people who happen to be melee.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sweetcheeks
    Anyways, I you know everything about a perfect group make-up, why do you even join PuGs and not just start one of your own, then you can invite all the DKs out there, add 2-3 healers and BAM there you go...
    I don't "know everything about a perfect group make-up", I was just making an argument. And my reason for making a topic is to share my ideas, which I won't by simply making my own raid.

  6. #6

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    There is such a thing as raid balance, and yes there are encounters which are made exceptionally difficult by too many melee, to name a few.

    Thorim - Chain Lightning will wipe your dps
    Freya - Have fun with the Snaplasher
    Mimiron - Good luck with the head on p4
    Vezax - Shadowcrash the raid
    Yogg Saron - Crusher Tenticles

    outside of that, you lose raid buffs by bringing a lot of DKs so stacking up on them can also be detrimental to the raid

    As for VoA depending on the dps of the pug, those few seconds lost by moving (and the additional risk of people dying to avoidable damage) make the encounter more difficult than is worth, saying that you have too many melee or too many of one class (in my experience) has nothing whatsoever to do with loot, every VoA pug I have ran on my druid has had nothing to do with loot and everything to do with class balance and raid buffs.

  7. #7

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    I didn't say that raid-balance didn't exist. But I think that it mainly won't be an issue if people (not just melee) know what to do - especially at Emalon which is a relatively easy encounter. I must admit that I forgot to take the Chain Lightning into account. I suppose that having an extreme amount of melee will result in some melee getting killed by it (at least if you don't have great healers). However, I don't remember having died on Chain Lightning while meleeing Emalon, so I don't think it's an issue in general.

    In regards to raid-buffs, I'd surely agree that it's a concern when you are going to, say, Ulduar with your guild. But VoA is just one rather easy boss (and one incredible easy boss), so I wouldn't be concerned about it here. As I said, if your DPS fail on VoA, it's because some of your DPS are performing badly.

    And one of the reasons people don't want too many of the same class is, at least partly, because of loot. And if we assume that raid-buffs/balance is a concern, I think it would irrational to say "We have too many DKs" without giving a reason for it. I guess a reason could be "We need Mage for Arcane Intellect buff", but my reply to that would be "No, we don't really."

  8. #8

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by altiris
    How often do you fight Thorim, Freya, Mimiron, Vezax and Yogg Saron in a VoA pug?
    wut? He made two clearly different examples.
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  9. #9

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Even funnier in Vault25 when theres 4 ret pallies and 1 holy pally. and the holy says "OMFG! NO MORE PALADINS PLZ!"

  10. #10

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    WE SHOULD STACK ONE CLASS AND BRING ONE OF THE REST OF THE CLASSES TO MAKE THOSE CLASSES HAPPY. YAY, LETS STACK DKS.

  11. #11

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by altiris
    How often do you fight Thorim, Freya, Mimiron, Vezax and Yogg Saron in a VoA pug?
    lol

  12. #12

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by Force
    WE SHOULD STACK ONE CLASS AND BRING ONE OF THE REST OF THE CLASSES TO MAKE THOSE CLASSES HAPPY. YAY, LETS STACK DKS.
    I did not say that you should get as many of a single class as possible. Also, DK were just used as an example, it could be any other class.

  13. #13

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    I think this arguement more applies to say 25 sarth. I left a pug group that had 8 dk 5 ret pallies, 2 rogues, 1 hunter and 2 dps warriors. *i was one of the warriors*. The raid leader knew i had a good enough set of armor to tank it all and asked me to tank.

    When i saw how much dps in the raid was going to want to roll on the flight of the 5 dragonflights i said i would only if i got the trinket. Sorry but i'm not taking a what 1/15 +1/18 chance. *15 possible items and 18 people going after the one and only item i want out of the instance.* after 17 people saying that's not how it works *1/2 of them in blues and greens* i just said fine find a tank that doesn't want it and left the group.

  14. #14

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by Marath
    Mimiron - Good luck with the head on p4
    Vezax - Shadowcrash the raid
    You can use Baby Spice on the bottom part in P4 to allow the melee to hit the head, and healers can take the shadowcrashes at Vezax.
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  15. #15

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaemi
    You can use Baby Spice on the bottom part in P4 to allow the melee to hit the head, and healers can take the shadowcrashes at Vezax.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marath
    There is such a thing as raid balance, and yes there are encounters which are made exceptionally difficult by too many melee [...]
    I believe you've demonstrated (and not disproven) his point.
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  16. #16

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    This thread is full of so much fail.

    It's amazing how much you can disagree with someone and tell them they are wrong by bringing out retarded one in a million exceptions to their rule and twisting what they say to some black and white absolute that no one with an IQ above 75 would have ever imagined they meant. If telling someone they are wrong involves a scenario that less likely than winning the lottery you should probably just keep your troll mouth shut.

    OP: Yes, you are correct that too many melee isn't really an issue unless they are all worthless but if everyone is worthless you're going to fail either way. Its a factor but not as big as everyone makes it. Passing over that well geared rogue because you have too many melee is ridiculous.

    You are also correct that adding a 5th+ of a given class doesn't hurt their chances all that much but I think it makes perfect sense to prefer a 20% chance over a 16% chance. Every bit helps. Everyone should want as few of their class as possible.
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  17. #17
    Moderator Nyanmaru's Avatar
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    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    My point about "make your own raid" was more about "it's their raid, it's their rules, don't complain".

    You wouldn't join a raiding guild that uses the "allmighty raidleader" lootsystem, where only the big tard that thinks he's the boss decides who gets the loot. So you don't talk into him but you just say "darn it, I'll find something better". Don't you?
    There is absolutely no point to try to reason with a PuG you will never see again. It's not about "playing the game" it's just about "getting the loot" and noone wants to hang himself a millstone around his neck if his chance to get the loot is fucked up anyway.

  18. #18

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by Sweetcheeks
    My point about "make your own raid" was more about "it's their raid, it's their rules, don't complain".

    You wouldn't join a raiding guild that uses the "allmighty raidleader" lootsystem, where only the big tard that thinks he's the boss decides who gets the loot. So you don't talk into him but you just say "darn it, I'll find something better". Don't you?
    There is absolutely no point to try to reason with a PuG you will never see again. It's not about "playing the game" it's just about "getting the loot" and noone wants to hang himself a millstone around his neck if his chance to get the loot is fucked up anyway.
    Listen here, Sweetcheeks...

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  19. #19
    Dreadlord dawawe's Avatar
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    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by Draenors

    I think there is a rational/mathematical problem with this argument (it does of course apply to all classes).

    Let’s assume you’re the only DK in a raid. The chance of a DK-tier item dropping is of course not high (I’m not sure how low. I believe Emalon and Archavon each drop 2x tier-items). But if it does drops, you have a 100% chance of obtaining it. If another DK joins the raid, your chance is reduced to 50%. Another one, 25%. Another one 20%. Another one, 16,66%.

    Conclusion: There is no such thing as "too many melee" for Emalon.
    100%/1=100% check
    100%/2=50% check
    100%/3=25% not check
    100%/4=20% not check
    100%/5=16.66% not check

    made an account just to point out math fail.
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  20. #20

    Re: Logic-failure in the loot-pinata

    Quote Originally Posted by Sweetcheeks
    There is absolutely no point to try to reason with a PuG you will never see again.
    Actually, I think there's a good chance that I will run into several of the people from the pug on another char or on a different day. Also, I don't really care if I don't. Most of the people reading this topic, for instance, are not from my server, obviously. It's about the argument/message, not about my personal gain.
    It's true that I wouldn't bother a lot to try and change a leader's decision in a pug. However, I wouldn't mind saying it out loud if I have a comment or disagree with something. After all, everything you say do go out to up to 24 people.

    quote author=dawawe link=topic=82606.msg1204573#msg1204573 date=1248477445]
    made an account just to point out math fail.
    [/quote]

    Corrected it, thanks. However, I'd like to points out that your comment consisted of a quote-fail in which you are taking the conclusion out of context. So I guess we're quits.

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