Possible Cataclysm Release Date

[Duftehwarrior]

There has been a lot of speculation on this. Some say Q1/Q2 of 2010, some say summer, others fall. I fall into the latter camp - I think fall/winter 2010, likely in the October timeframe. Why? Well, because over the development of World of Warcraft, Blizzard has been focusing on a more consistent release cycle. The following table illustrats that (the designation of major/minor is based on my view of the patch as I experienced it):

Patch Date Type Content
1.1.0 7-Nov-04 Major Initial Release
1.2.0 18-Dec-04 Minor Marudon added
1.3.0 7-Mar-05 Major Dire Maul added; outdoor bosses added
1.4.0 8-Apr-05 Minor Honor added
1.5.0 7-Jun-05 Major Battlegrounds
1.6.0 12-Jul-05 Major BWL Added
1.7.0 13-Sep-05 Major ZG added; AB added
1.8.0 10-Oct-05 Minor Silithus finished; 4 Dream dragons added
1.9.0 3-Jan-06 Major AQ added; Silithus CC quest hub;
new Tier 2 models; timbermaw hold
1.10.0 28-Mar-06 Minor Weather; Tier 0.5 added
1.11.0 20-Jun-06 Major Naxxramas v1.0
1.12.0 22-Aug-06 Minor Cross-realm BGs; outdoor pvp
--------------------------------------------------------
2.0.1 5-Dec-06 Major TBC content patch
2.1.0 22-May-07 Major Black Temple added; new quest hubs; druid
epic flight; new arena
2.2.0 25-Sep-07 Minor Voice Chat
2.3.0 13-Nov-07 Major Zul'Aman; Guild Banks; level 20-60 revamp
2.4.0 25-Mar-08 Major Sunwell and Isle of Quel'Danas;
new instances and quest hub;
new badge gear
--------------------------------------------------------
3.0.2 14-Oct-08 Major WotLK Content Patch
3.1.0 14-Apr-09 Major Ulduar opened; Argent tournament;
Dual Talents
3.2.0 4-Aug-09 Major Crusader's Coliseum; new dailies; new BG
3.2.2 22-Sept-09 Minor Onyxia returns; minor talent tweaks
3.3 PTR 01-Oct-09 Major Icecrown Citadel

During the 1.x development cycle, patches were initially pushed out at about one per month. As the game matured, however, that slowed down to one patch per 2-3 months, and then beginning in 2006, it became 5-6 months between major patches.

In the 2.x development cycle, it was roughly 5-6 months between major patches. And this appears to be the case in the 3.x development cycle, with the exception of 3.2 coming about 4 months after 3.1.

Anyone who works in software development knows that the biggest hurdle to overcome is release predictability. As WoW has matured, Blizzard has gotten better and better about knowing what they can fit into their release cycle, and this is evidenced by the fairly consistent rate at which major patches are released.

Obviously, this is just my opinion and is pure speculation, but here's what I see happening:

3.3.0 will likely drop after the new year, probably in late January or early February. They will likely do an incremental release of bosses to avoid guilds from rushing through the content. IC will have 12 bosses, but I don't think all 12 will be available from the start, nor do I think they'll limit it to one per week. IC is supposed to have 4 levels. I see each level being release separately.

This means that IC won't be *fully* available until the beginning of March. They'll start the Cataclysm beta in April/May, and beta for roughly 4 months (wotlk beta was about 4 months), making the release sometime in September or October.

[Solveig]

I like how well planned out this is, and the amount of thought put in, however I cannot see ICC being on the PTR for too long.

It's to the most part complete. Testing won't take more than a month (two months max).


Judging by how fast they put ICC up on the PTR (coming no more than a couple of weeks after the release of Onyxia), they're obviously pushing to get cataclysm out as soon as possible. Another thing that has to be thrown in to the equation is that 3.3 is the LAST content patch, this has (I believe, correct me if I'm wrong) been confirmed by blues. The only patches to come out after 3.3 will either be minor fixes and/or adjustments to prepare for the release of cataclysm.


In the end though, we can only watch, wait and hope, that they don't fuck this up. I'll be very disappointed if a lot of the things released are to a poor quality. As I for one am particularly excited about this expansion (A lot more so than previous Xpacs).

[Bazgab]

Even if ICC wasn't released until late Jan. or early Feb. there would be no way to stretch the content to October 2010. That is 8 months with the 12 bosses in ICC, which is way too long for a raid. Take your other guess that the bosses will be gated (not a bad idea), start with 4 bosses available and open up one per week. That would still mean that Arthas would be available at the end of March or early April. That would point toward a summer release for cataclysm then giving 3ish months on Arthas.

I think blizz wants this new xpac out asap. It has a lot of content but is much more focused than previous expansions and only takes us to level 85 which leads me to believe a lot is already done and we will see the xpac in Q2/Q3 of 2010.

[Adwyn]

Blizzard said that the Cataclysm beta will be up before the end of this year. And I think you can get banned even if you type "possible release date". Just saying...

[Duftehwarrior]

lulz i just ripped this off of someone on my guild website. i hope it is summer, and that's what i think too

[Dayle]

Yeah right, I won't be surprised if 3.3 came either today or next week. They're been burning through content SO fast lately, I can't keep up with all the Tier. It's like, if you didn't get into a Guild at the start of the expansion, you're screwed.

[Alienshroom]

This is a good post but I hope its wrong. I agree with pretty much everyone else, that's way too long for 12 bosses.

[bak00777]

I swear Xpac will be out March-April 2010, because 3.3 will be around winter and they said they don't want Arthas to be a farm boss, also 3.3 will be last major patch.

[Imashayman]

I'm agreeing with the OP on this one. Even if they were further along than any other x-pac at the announcement, thats still 2 continents of quests needed to be completed(they said they were redoing many zones) to update them to wotlk standards. 2 continents of terrain to work on. And I'm not even including the underwater area(s). They also have twice as much raid content at launch than both previous x-pacs and the original release. On top of that they're completely redoing talent trees, all specs, reworking hunters with the whole focus bs. Adding ranked BG's, reworking the stat system. Now granted they're far along, maybe into alpha stage, but writing all those quests, bug testing all the new raids and instances, testing, tweaking and fixing hunters (so they're not like DK's at launch), and just making sure that everything is in proper working order is going to be a long process.

[Nangz]

In b4 OP ban

[Adlian]

3.3 will be rdy around the end of November or mid December

[Deaths]

In b4 OP ban

[Mogrein]

3.3 out 12th of November, because it's a day when non battle.net accounts becoming unavailable.As we all know blizz making some changes with friend list in 3.3, so we can add friends from battle.net (just like Steam).

[Rosencratz]

I'm agreeing with the OP on this one. Even if they were further along than any other x-pac at the announcement, thats still 2 continents of quests needed to be completed(they said they were redoing many zones) to update them to wotlk standards. 2 continents of terrain to work on. And I'm not even including the underwater area(s). They also have twice as much raid content at launch than both previous x-pacs and the original release. On top of that they're completely redoing talent trees, all specs, reworking hunters with the whole focus bs. Adding ranked BG's, reworking the stat system. Now granted they're far along, maybe into alpha stage, but writing all those quests, bug testing all the new raids and instances, testing, tweaking and fixing hunters (so they're not like DK's at launch), and just making sure that everything is in proper working order is going to be a long process.

Not even the OP agrees with the OP.

lulz i just ripped this off of someone on my guild website. i hope it is summer, and that's what i think too

Cata will not be released any later than early summer 2010

[Imashayman]

Not even the OP agrees with the OP.

??

[Conbot]

The longer this game exists, the quicker content will (and needs to) become available. People are impatient and 3-4 months is enough for most people to do everything that they want to.

3.3 is absolutely going to hit before the end of the year (probably before December) and 4.0 is going to be out in April or May at the latest.

[Rosencratz]

??

I quoted it for you, if it still makes no sense to you try and re-read the thread...