Mysterious Egg: The Mystical Green Proto-Drake

[Dwane]

So wowhead says 2% drop rate so its 1 of 50. If some1 got it from first egg, some1 else will get it after 100 eggs to meet average droprate, thats math.

[Boobies]

I am the only one that is not bothered about proto-drakes?

They are SO ugly.

Red, Green, Rusted, who cares? I have a couple but do not ride them.

The only reasons some of the proto-drakes are nice are (1) for prestige (but so many people have rusted drakes now, who cares?) and (2) because some of them, have an increased flight speed.

The normal drakes are far nicer. Red, Bronze, Black and especially Twilight. Hippogryphs are really nice as well but proto-drakes - ugh!

Most of the normal drakes look hideous, bronze especially (twilight and black look alright), not to mention how infested the game is with them (them being bronze drakes, not all of the regular old-world drakes)

[Eluniar]

I got my drake on like the 12th egg, just got to keep at it. Funny enough, I had got my Red Proto Drake the day before.

I love the look of them though, like T-Rex with wings
Have 3 now, the Red, Green and Violet.

Good luck!

[aenimax6]

So wowhead says 2% drop rate so its 1 of 50. If some1 got it from first egg, some1 else will get it after 100 eggs to meet average droprate, thats math.

No, thats common stupidity.

Each drop rate works individually for each egg.

[Imp]

When it comes to dropping mounts RNg usuallyu loves me, its when your säposed to roll about the mount that it starts to hates me :<. got my green proto on the fourth egg, but dont use it.

Ironbound FTW \o/

[Dwane]

No, thats common stupidity.

Each drop rate works individually for each egg.

It sure does, but statistical math is probably mystical for u.

[Valilor]

Statistical Probability is a funny thing. Check this out for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

The two posters above are both correct though. If you approached this before getting an egg, you would estimate you would get an egg in the first 50. Using "OR" and adding up the 2% gets you to 100% when you get to egg #50.

Once you've started the "next" egg will always have a 2% chance of being "the one" so you're never more likely to see if it you're on your 1st, 49th or 1000th!

Excuse me if any of the above is incorrect, i haven't done stats for a while and I didn't use Excel (I never do any maths without it).

OK LETS STOP TALKING ABOUT MATHS!

WTB 1 Green Proto Drake Please. Thanks.

[zizfizziks]

Farmed for my ~2% rare Druid Bird mount drop from Sethekk Halls well over 200 times. Still nothing. Sometimes I really hate RNG.

Also I do enjoy a good statistical exercise as much as the next guy so here you go.
The probability of getting your drop (as a decimal where 1 = 100% chance) with X% chance to drop after exactly N tries = [ (1-X)^(N-1) ] * X

Example X = 50%
probability to wait exactly N tries before seeing the drop:
1 = 50%
2 = 25%
3 = 12.5%
4 = 6.25%
.
.
.
50 = 0.000000000001421085%


If you want to find what percentile you are for waiting until N tries you need to add up all of the probabilities from N = 1 to N = total tries, then you can see what percentage of people would have seen that drop by then.

Example X = 50%
probability of getting the drop by N tries:
1 = 50%
2 = 75%
3 = 87.5%
4 = 93.75%
.
.
.
50 = 99.9999999999986%

Given that your drop rate is 2% and you've been trying for 48 weeks (N = 48), compared to you only 62.1% of the people you know doing the same farming would have gotten a mount by now leaving you in the unlucky 37.9% without a mount.
(twice as long farming now) N = 96 weeks moves you to see that 84.4% of people have their mount now. You = unlucky 15.6%
(three times as long farming) N = 144 weeks 94.1% of people have it. You = unlucky 5.9%
(four times as long farming) N = 192 weeks 97.8% of people have it. You = unlucky 2.2%

Using the numbers we can figure out that about half of people will have their mount before 39 weeks. The other half will have to wait longer, perhaps forever.

As you can see you're never guaranteed to have the mount since a 2% chance over a given time will never HAVE TO happen. You slowly move toward HAVE TO (100%) but you never reach it even after infinite tries. You can just be infinitely unlucky and never see the drop much like I have been with the druid bird mount, over 98.1% of people in my situation of farming everyday for 200+ days would have seen the mount by now...

Random is random, but when it's you in the lower percentile it just doesn't feel fair does it ?

[Raenas]

Sadly I have more Polar Bears from the blue ladies than I know what to do with (warrior has an extra set of reins in the bank while my shaman has two extra sets of reins). My shaman got the Time-Lost drake three or four months ago followed by Rusted about a month and a half ago.

That's about where my luck with mounts ends.

Across two characters, I've done ~150 Strat runs, 32 sethekk runs, more 10/25m OS+3 than I care to remember, same thing for ZG mount bosses, and ~30 eggs. All without seeing/winning any of those mounts. >_>

Oh and not to mention farming Headless Horseman with guildies and their alts and my alts for a good 50 or so kills a day for the duration of the event to not see the mount drop once. Also watching the kodo and ram drop time after time after time during brewfest and not getting a single damn one (probably watched that damn kodo drop at least 15 times during the event).



At the moment, I use a macro that randomly chooses either the time-lost drake or the rusted drake. My warrior just uses her CE hippogryph as she has no proto yet.

[xivit]

i got my green protodrake the first egg i ever buyed ...

[Bukkit]

Farmed for my ~2% rare Druid Bird mount drop from Sethekk Halls well over 200 times. Still nothing. Sometimes I really hate RNG.

Dammnnnn! I got my Raven mount just the other day....on my third try since completing the Epic Flight quest.
Heres proof: http://www.wowarmory.com/character-a...ibo&gn=Respect

[Radaney]

Got it on my 3rd egg on my main, so three weeks. Still haven't even got to revered on my DK. ;D

[bengaltd]

I GOT MY RED PROTO-DRAKE YESTERDAY!!!!! <3

I think the normal LK drakes look terrible and I agree with whoever was talking about the bronze drakes from CoT being everywhere--that really takes away from my desire to acknowledge I own one.

I buy eggs every week and I've yet to see one, been going since June I believe, but I'm not particularly worried anymore since I got the red one which I think looks 100x better. The blue drake from Skadi in H UP is awesome too and I would use that if I ever won it

[kudzupo]

1 year and 2 weeks of buying the eggs on 3 different characters, got mine today

[Borahk]

I have actually gotten 2 mounts in my hunt for the whelpling pet! I got the first one a after a month if i recall right, and the second one a good 2 months after.

It's now residing in my bank, hoping for one day Blizzard will make them BoE

[Vrachara]

I am the only one that is not bothered about proto-drakes?

I dunno... when I first heard of an obtainable Red Drake from Wyrmrest I went bonkers, was the first rep I grinded on my main... then I got it and was like "yay, yay, ya.a..hm.. this is boring". I don't know why, they're just not impressive. Way too..generic, there's just nothing special about them, I like the Netherdrakes more.

As for Proto Drakes, I didn't like them much at first, but they do grow on you quite a bit. Right now I love them, but not all - green I don't find very exciting, red is okish, but the raid ones are pure love. No it's not the prestige (whatever's left of it now), they just look great. The Rusted one looked shit on a picture and I wasn't interested in it, but when I first saw one in game (before I got my own) I loved it, the colours just work great. The Ironbound is cool too, I'm not sure which one I'd prefer as I don't see them too often, although I am into black/gray stuff so wouldn't surprise me to love it even more.

[Deleted]

Well it's coming up to almost a full year now of buying mysterious eggs (I have bought an egg 48 weeks in a row now without fail) and I've still not got the reins of the Green Proto-Drake. That's quite a long time!

How long has anyone else gone? I started not long after I dinged 80 and WotLK launched so I guess there can't be many people waiting that much longer than me at the moment? I've seen 2 guildies get the Drake on their 1st or 2nd egg and then fly it in my face...the pain!

It's been about the same for me, its nuts!

[riflemancho]

Im just like you m8, every week...i still dont have it ;[. Atleast i have the violet one.

[Deleted]

Been a year for me as well.

[Thylos]

I have bought the egg every week since the day i got revered still no luck.
Got Rusted Proto-Drake and Violet Proto-drake though, but i still want the green one