OS3D Drake - Buying it - whats it worth?

[evan_s]

For 10 man- The simplest option is going to be setting up a group made up of guild/friends who are willing to help you get the mount. It really shouldn't be too hard the help if you are pretty close to the mount.

For 25man- GDKP runs is probably the best bet. Even if you don't win you build up Gold for the next run so you can spend more.

[Smoopie]

Worth and value can only be asserted by yourself. To me it is not a mount I would want, however I would easily pay for the mount in UP..

The 10 man is easily pugged on any server, 25 you might need to have 12-15 people in the raid that know what they are doing for it to work

[Shalaman]

I pugged both 10 in 3.0 and 25 in 3.1... yet its hard with ICC gear :/?

[Siton]

The problem is, that you have 4% chance every week of getting it (since in an os3d pug it's guaranteed that everyone wants the drake).
After 25 weeks the probability for you to get the drake is 64%. And that's half a year!
After 73 weeks you pass the 95% threshold.

That thing is really hard to get by pure luck.

Can't see how the rate would increase by running more times.
It's still your 4% chance every week unless you go with the same raid.

[Deleted]

on my server the top raiding guild was selling mount 5k and title 500g but this was before it was easy to get gear

[Mahmutti]

I made a raid for OS 10 today because it was the weekly. We weren't supposed to go 3d at first, but we decided to give it a try. After a few wipes (and replacing a few baddies) we got it down and I rolled a 94 and won it (some other guy rolled 94 too but the system decided that it likes me more because I'm such an awesome person). I don't have the skill to fly it. Some guy offered me like 2k for it, but I'd rather have the drake sitting in my inventory than another useless 2k.

[Deleted]

I cant see why would anyone buy this, both are easilly puggable. I have an alt hunter on EU-Aggamagan Alliance side, one of the worst realms in progress that has only 20%ish population on Alliance side and they pug it there weekly. Badge gear (232/245/251/264) is more than enough for this shit. Even much less than average DPSer can pull at least 4k in badge gear in raid and others simply pick up the slack.

[Shuyin]

I pugged both 10 in 3.0 and 25 in 3.1... yet its hard with ICC gear :/?

he doesn't mean buy the run from a guild run, but buy the drake from the one who wins it

OT: i bought the 25 man one for 20k because i have more money than i can spend, the chance to win it is really low and there aren't many 3d 25 man runs in my server
for the 10 man one i pugged it everytime i found a run (5 or 6 times i think) until i won it, as the chance to win it is 2.5 times higher than the 25 man run.

plus, even if i won it by myself, i had a friend in the same run who already had the drake and was going to roll and trade it to me if he won it.

then what you can do is
- buy it
- make a group to farm the instance until everyone has it (but the 25 man would take too long and Cataclysm will be out earlier)
- get some friends and farm the instance until everyone has it, pugging people, and everyone roll trading it to who needs it until you all have it


@Siton: the chance doesn't go up, it's 4% every week, but the chance to get it is higher considering more than 1 run.
let's say a monster that has a 10% chance to drop an item you need.
1 kill: 10% chance that you will have the item
2 kills: 19% chance that you will have the item
3 kills: 27% chance that you will have the item
4 kills: 34% chance that you will have the item
...
19 kills: 86% chance that you will have the item
20 kills: 88% chance that you will have the item

same goes with the drake, but with a 4% chance to get the 25 man and 10% to get the 10 man

[Smoopie]

I don't have the skill to fly it. Some guy offered me like 2k for it, but I'd rather have the drake sitting in my inventory than another useless 2k.

...wat

[Joels]

Like everyone else is saying, black drakes much cheaper and way easier to obtain. Twilight drake will probly go anywhere from 9-15k in a GDKP, as I got my twilight for 12.. Not too many people were even bidding on it, just myself and this other guy.

[Deleted]

Dont buy it, itll never be removed so in like cata you can 5 man 10 man or 25

It wont be removed but the 100% drop mounts like LK, Yogg0 and possibly OS drakes will go from 100% drop to 1%ish.

[alt-ithist]

Me and some friends/guildies actually 12 man it every week and only 4 of us are left to get it. We dont zerg. just burn down each drake the old fashin way.

1 tank 2 healers rest dps. drakes are tanked by a dps spec blood Dk in tank/pvp gear and are downed before the next drake shows up.

[Deathsenemy]

The problem is, that you have 4% chance every week of getting it (since in an os3d pug it's guaranteed that everyone wants the drake).
After 25 weeks the probability for you to get the drake is 64%. And that's half a year!
After 73 weeks you pass the 95% threshold.

That thing is really hard to get by pure luck.

Dont think thats correct. I think it always a 4% chance, even after a year. The percentage doesnt go up just because you run it more. Its like flipping a coin, just because it lands on head 3 times in a row doesnt mean the chances of tails next is any better than 50%. Maybe im wrong, but I though my math was pretty good.

** Just noticed someone else posted this.

[Migage]

A guildy of mine paid 5k for 25 OS3D drake the other day the other day

[evan_s]

Dont think thats correct. I think it always a 4% chance, even after a year. The percentage doesnt go up just because you run it more. Its like flipping a coin, just because it lands on head 3 times in a row doesnt mean the chances of tails next is any better than 50%. Maybe im wrong, but I though my math was pretty good.

** Just noticed someone else posted this.

The chance of you getting it on any specific run doesn't change but the odds that you will have gotten it goes up the more times you do the raid which is what they were figuring it out. So after 25 runs it's a 64% chance you will have gotten it as some point.

[jarhu]

...wat

2kG is like a one button press in a day at auctioneer. Even counting afking, crafting and shit that's made in a less than 10 minutes.

The chance of you getting it on any specific run doesn't change but the odds that you will have gotten it goes up the more times you do the raid which is what they were figuring it out. So after 25 runs it's a 64% chance you will have gotten it as some point.

Yeah, I think it should be said that the probability you have won the mount after 25 runs is 64%. It's not like you will get it, but just a probability.

Some basic math:

If your chance to get the mount is one of the 25 = ~0,04 = ~4% then your chance to lose ( 1 - 0,04 ) after two runs is 0,96 * 0,96 = 0,9216. Thus after 25 runs we get 1 - 0,96^25 = ~0,64 = 64% probability you have won the mount.

Edit: Oh and if you don't believe me, then read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

[Volitar]

It dropped i sent a tell to the winner saying 1k for it

he said sure

<happy shaman

[LoLHellcy]

yeah, i put it all the time, but never win.. i've organised about 17 so far.. even did it with guildies a few times and i lost by rolling a 90 when the winnin bid was 91.. just figured i'd ping the community to see what others have paid.. gold comes easy.. my time for this mount is getting slim.. thx

if you have put 17 together, i hereby allow you to ninja the drake, you've done more than your fair share of work

---------- Post added 2010-08-16 at 06:19 PM ----------

Dont think thats correct. I think it always a 4% chance, even after a year. The percentage doesnt go up just because you run it more. Its like flipping a coin, just because it lands on head 3 times in a row doesnt mean the chances of tails next is any better than 50%. Maybe im wrong, but I though my math was pretty good.

** Just noticed someone else posted this.

you're both right, just because you run it more often doesn't mean that you'll necessarily get it more (still a 4% chance each time that the drake drops) but statistically after 73 runs you have a 95% chance that one of the 73 runs had your 4% chance being the winning roll.

[Ducon]

2kG is like a one button press in a day at auctioneer. Even counting afking, crafting and shit that's made in a less than 10 minutes

And still he hasnt bought himself epic flying skill?

[Spartanoble]

I'd pay 1-2k for the 10 man one

4k tops for the 25 man one .