Something SUPER Creepy Just happened.

[Heenk]

The law of attraction is total bullcrap, just so you guys know.

[Gleem]

These threads are retarded, e.g. i've done the baron run over 500 times and it still hasn't dropped, the first couple of times i thought "it's gonna drop" and then obviously for a while i thought meh, i'll just keep spamming it as the probably is that i'd eventually have it drop.

Now that i have done over those 500 times it means that i have just went through RNG so i should eventually come to that drop. However, i may run it 2000 times and not drop, but the next 2 times i run it it may drop consecutively because RNG is RNG.

Whereas the actual chance doesn't increase of it dropping in reality as the drop rate stays the same, think of it as a 1 in a million diseases that someone may have, such as if you watch the program house (yes it's a tv program, but still) it shows that some people have those medical conditions, even though the doctors may not think it at first.

Long story short - RNG is RNG. While thinking that you can or will do something does often help (like believing that you can kill x boss as positive reinforcement and confidence is good), believing or trusting in RNG is stupid. Flukes do happen no matter the probability.

I'm sorry, you clearly have no understanding of mathematical probability. You understand the basic mistakes the average player makes which is to follow the logic I'm about to display.

The mount is a 2% drop, or 1 in 50 chance. I run ZG 5 times and it doesn't drop. So now the chance of it dropping are 6/50.

However, every attempt you make on the boss does change the probability that it will drop as I will demonstrate.

This is easier demonstrated from the view of the mount repeatedly dropping rather than the mount not dropping. you have a 1/50 chance to get the mount, you kill the tiger boss, it drops, huzzah. Now you're probably thinking, "The chance of me getting this again are 1/50," But this isn't so. Because you've already had the mount drop at a 1/50 rate you have to compound that, so it becomes the chance that it will drop twice in a row. Which is actually 1 in 125 chance.

Now do this for it not dropping. 49/50^X where x is the number of times you've actually ran the dungeon and not had it drop. The chance of the mount dropping after 2 runs of it not dropping only goes up slightly. It should be noted you can never actually reach a 100% drop rate. The droprate in probability will steadily climb towards 100% without ever actually reaching it. So you'll eventually have a 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 chance of it dropping.

[Voltarus]

Mathematical probability is nice, but the basic is the drop chance, which is from a statistic. And those mostly never are right for single persons, because there are unlucky and lucky persons.
I got the raptor mount at my sixth run, so it would be 16.66%, and not 2% for me. I also know a person, which was over 100 times in ZG without a drop, let's say he was there 120 times. If it would drop at the 121th run, the drop chance for him is 0,8264%.

Probably the mathematical probability is right, and probability it's wrong.
Just as I had all 3 brewfest-drops at once.

(Sorry if I wrote something confusing, I'm more than tired..)

[PetersenII]

These threads are retarded, e.g. i've done the baron run over 500 times and it still hasn't dropped,

I pity you, sir. And I thought my 228 was bad. =-/


EDIT:

I'm sorry, you clearly have no understanding of mathematical probability. You understand the basic mistakes the average player makes which is to follow the logic I'm about to display.

The mount is a 2% drop, or 1 in 50 chance. I run ZG 5 times and it doesn't drop. So now the chance of it dropping are 6/50.

However, every attempt you make on the boss does change the probability that it will drop as I will demonstrate.

This is easier demonstrated from the view of the mount repeatedly dropping rather than the mount not dropping. you have a 1/50 chance to get the mount, you kill the tiger boss, it drops, huzzah. Now you're probably thinking, "The chance of me getting this again are 1/50," But this isn't so. Because you've already had the mount drop at a 1/50 rate you have to compound that, so it becomes the chance that it will drop twice in a row. Which is actually 1 in 125 chance.

Now do this for it not dropping. 49/50^X where x is the number of times you've actually ran the dungeon and not had it drop. The chance of the mount dropping after 2 runs of it not dropping only goes up slightly. It should be noted you can never actually reach a 100% drop rate. The droprate in probability will steadily climb towards 100% without ever actually reaching it. So you'll eventually have a 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 chance of it dropping.

There's so much wrong with that I'm not even sure where to begin...

Let's do something simpler, say, coins.

The odds of flipping two heads is 1 in 4.

If you flip a coin and it lands on heads, the probability of your next toss being a heads is still 1 in 2. You have not magically changed the composition of the coin or the laws of physics. Any toss of a coin has a 50% chance of being heads or tails (yes, I know it depends on the kind of coin and isn't precisely 50%, work with me here). If you have, in your experiment, flipped 99 heads, when you are flipping the coin the 100th time the chance of getting a heads is still 50%. Independent events will always have the same probability of occurring regardless the number of times of occurrence or the result of those events. That's what defines and independent event. And since the stats tracking page most likely has no impact on drop percentages, each drop is an independent event.

You can say that the likelihood of having done 1,000 Baron runs and not seeing the mount is infinitesimal, but that doesn't mean that having done it 1000 times that on your 1001st time it is all but certain to drop. It still only has a 1% chance to drop.

[Kilpi]

I've noticed something with my friend. Everytime we are farming for a rare quest drop or anything else like that, and you've been doing that for quite a while, just QQ to your friend about it. And what do you, it drops in 30 seconds! (I'm looking at you, Glowing Soul Gem!)

---------- Post added 2010-09-24 at 03:44 PM ----------

Mathematical probability is nice, but the basic is the drop chance, which is from a statistic. And those mostly never are right for single persons, because there are unlucky and lucky persons.
I got the raptor mount at my sixth run, so it would be 16.66%, and not 2% for me. I also know a person, which was over 100 times in ZG without a drop, let's say he was there 120 times. If it would drop at the 121th run, the drop chance for him is 0,8264%.

Probably the mathematical probability is right, and probability it's wrong.
Just as I had all 3 brewfest-drops at once.

(Sorry if I wrote something confusing, I'm more than tired..)

And I know for a fact, that my friend got the tiger mount on the first kill we did. Talk about lucky.

[Kooshkrusher]

My tiger dropped the first day I did ZG and I didn't even know it dropped. Maybe you should clear your memory of the tiger and it will drop?

[Wysard]

I must be tired this morning. Remind me again how this is Cataclysm related?

MODS: can this thread be moved to General WoW forum?

[Voltarus]

I must be tired this morning. Remind me again how this is Cataclysm related?

MODS: can this thread be moved to General WoW forum?

AND FYI, im posting this in the cataclysm forums because I was farming it so i'd have it before cata.

He wrote it, because the mounts will be removed in cataclysm.

[hmc]

"I have a feeling this girl in my class' pants will drop."

Ok, I said it, now I wait.

[Sunshine]

Closing this; it's not Cataclysm related and there's not really much to discuss.