Hit rating at 85

[Jenerena]

It is a difficult one, I gotta say. I mean, 10 iterations is more practical. If 20 out of 40 iterations show hit to be superior to intellect, this makes me wonder how useful simulating hit rating at 10000 iterations actually is. We're not going to kill a boss fight 10000 times. It is likely one week we will miss loads, the next not much at all. We simply cannot predict what will happen. My instincts tell me we can't really win either way - we get to the hit cap with lower intellect and risk lower overall damage. Or, we go for intellect instead, being under the hit cap but risking those 'bad nights'.

I personally think that you should get as close as you can by reforging, then just leave it. I don't think it is worth gemming/enchanting hit unless you are nowhere near the cap (anything under 14% maybe). It's too uncertain to both be going crazy with it, and ignoring it completely.

[Krunklock]

The point is NOT to be so damn anal about hit. Do what you can to reach the cap, but don't pass up a trinket with +325 intellect for a trinket with +200 hit if you're close to the cap already.

Yes, it sucks missing a haunt, because you're screwed for a while...but that haunt isn't going to haunt you (see wut i did thur?)...granted I know we've all had encounters where we've wiped with the boss at <10k health...and having that haunt would have meant profit...but it's just one friggin pull.

You can miss. Yeah, you can...you can also fat finger your doomguard, or your connection could have been cut, or any other reasons that are more probable than you missing one spell which is directly related to a wipe.

You're not a tank. You can never 'not' miss as a warlock...it's just preferred you don't.

Now, int > hit.

---------- Post added 2010-12-17 at 12:01 AM ----------

Note: this is all just for gemming, since you can't reforge int as it's a base stat. Also for some random trinket decisions.

[gherkin]

I personally think that you should get as close as you can by reforging, then just leave it. I don't think it is worth gemming/enchanting hit unless you are nowhere near the cap (anything under 14% maybe). It's too uncertain to both be going crazy with it, and ignoring it completely.

Agreed completely.

[Fela]

Guaranted 100,000 Vs very likely 1,000,000.
I'd take the 100,000 without any hesitation because it is guaranteed.
Keep in mind if you go for the 1,000,000 and do get the wrong answer then you get 0.

This answer has me thinking you SERIOUSLY need to consult someone about angst issues, seeing how my example was completely overexaggerated (which was pointed out by someone else - in my defense, I intended to bring accross a point and not scale correctly).

Let me phrase it differently and at the same time a bit more realistically/practical for your purpose.

You're wiping at a boss 100 times in a row by a measly 10000 HP remaining on the boss. Your raid leader has a magical and very accurate analysis tool running all the time.
He approaches you with his findings: Everyone - including you - was doing perfect performance during the fight, but the DPS was just not enough. However, had you not given up INT on your gear to reach that final percent for being hit capped, your raid would instead have wiped ONCE with the boss at 30000 HP. The other 99 times the boss would have been defeated.

How would you feel?

That's precisely how the simcrafting works - provided that lost synergy effects from missing spells have been taken into account - and again, i'm not fit to judge THAT. But you simply can't persist that if someone DId simcraft this and came up with something better than +hit after a certain point they MUST be wrong.

[Pridelock]

The cap isn't actually as important as it used to be...the design has shifted so that there isn't such a set rule to getting hit capped before starting raiding. The simcrafts are showing hit to be inferior to intellect. In practise this only really affects how you gem considering you actually can't pass intellect for hit being a primary stat. I therefore won't be gemming full hit which I would have had to do pre-wrath.

It's always worth simcrafting your character to be sure, but you should still be taking hit over crit, mastery and haste until capped.

Pay attention to the above quoted post - This is indeed correct - Although hit has a varible value not a static value like intellect. If you never ever hit then your going to see your DPS drop off. However reaching the cap may not be as key as you think.

[Deleted]

reforge all mastery to hit and go full int on gems

[knumskul]

Personally I wouldn't want my Immolate to miss as destro or Haunt to miss as Aff. Big dps loss if Haunt drops off. As for Immolate, time wasted recasting it and dps loss of the next queued spell not benefitting from loss of Immolate.

[Vaez]

this is somewhat moot..as there is no gear that you would be giving up int for hit...

ALSO its very easy to hit 16-17% hit with bis pre-raid gear. I haven't been trying all that hard to get a perfect set to start raiding in, I just threw together what I've gotten in heroics and what I can get from tailoring and rep rewards.. without reforging, gemming or enchanting for hit..I'm sitting right around 17%...

for me, being completely hit capped has never been the hugest deal to me and I've never had a problem with giant miss streaks, every blue moon or so I miss an important spell..but probability is in my favor

[Fela]

Ok I'm giving up. You're beyond hope regarding applied maths.

[angelise01]

Honestly, I'm not sure why there are even arguments that the math is not correct. It seems pretty straightforward, at >15% hit, the chance to miss is small so even if you do, it doesn't make up for the loss in Int.

The way I would view it is, I could buy insurance against lightning striking me but it wouldn't be worth it if because of that I couldn't buy car insurance because the probability that I get struck by lightning is pretty low compared to getting hit by another car.

I mean it used to be that below 17% hit, the chance to miss did not compensate for the increase of dmg expected from getting another stat. Thus, the stat weight for hit was higher until 17%. It has been true, at selected times in some cases, for other classes that getting hit capped is not been entirely the best for maximizing dps. So this phenomena is not unheard of, just in general uncommon for casters.

Yes, the possibility that you may miss on Haunt/Hand of Guldan/other important spells or you may miss on the last spell you cast when the boss is at 3000 hp and you're the only one up. It would suck but they are unlikely. Yes, Simcraft is not completely accurate but it's a good statistical representation and other than going in yourself and going through your rotation many many times then calculating your own statistics, a decent alternative.

If it bothers people so much, get 17% hit, it's your perogative, but don't try to argue against statistics. If you don't care about applied mathmatics and stat weights, what's the point with trying to calculate BIS and optimizing gear. Might as well pick the prettiest gear and go do whatever.

[Khadjid]

@TobiasX
This discussion is pointless as there are two views on the discussion and those two views cannot convince each other.
1. I will never, ever, ever rely on chance, no matter how small.
2. If it averages out to be better in the long run, I don't care if I will perform worse sometimes.

A lot of people don't mind being in the second group, just look at the number of participants in lotteries. That doesn't mean it's wrong to be in the first group either, in the end it won't matter. Those in the second group will sometimes peform better than the first group, and sometimes they will perform worse, it will average out to be about the same.

[nocturnus]

If you are not hit capped, there is a chance you can miss. The fact that this chance is not zero means you can lose dps. How big this chance is does not matter at all; it isn't zero, therefore it's a dps loss.

What kind of ridiculous statement is that. Hahaha, having a chance to miss isn't a dps loss - there's a chance to lose dps by missing frequently. If this is what you mean, please do your best to formulate it correctly. Let me make it even easier for you to comprehend MISSING above a certain int/hit balance isn't even a dps loss compared to capping your hit and having less int.

Why are you being this obsitnate?

Math proved that capping your hit, thereby landing every single spell will result LESS damage done than not fully capping your hit, missing a few casts but having harder hitting nukes. If 50k iterations aren't enough for you to accept this very simple principle go ahead and cap your silly hit. Just don't barge in here pretending to know it all when you clearly haven't done the math. And please, stop providing us your ridiculous "what if" situations.

[Gurnolla]

Simcrafting is statistical modeling. The spreadsheets use BiS gear and other specific parameters. To make a statement that doesn't reflect that fact is only going to create long threads that don't go anywhere. Int > Hit in specific circumstances. If those conditions aren't met then Hit > Int up to the Hit Cap, any hit beyond that is a waste. If your raid comp provides "Hit Buffs", you can tune your gear to take advantage of that and choose Int over Hit.

Unintentionaly implying that one stat is always greater than another is a common issue when the model used to arrive at that "state specific" conclusion isn't an integral "quoted" part of the discussion.

"Doing the Math" doesn't do much good when the data isn't used in it's proper context.

Cheers!

[nocturnus]

Simcrafting is statistical modeling. The spreadsheets use BiS gear and other specific parameters. To make a statement that doesn't reflect that fact is only going to create long threads that don't go anywhere. Int > Hit in specific circumstances. If those conditions aren't met then Hit > Int up to the Hit Cap, any hit beyond that is a waste. If your raid comp provides "Hit Buffs", you can tune your gear to take advantage of that and choose Int over Hit.

Unintentionaly implying that one stat is always greater than another is a common issue when the model used to arrive at that "state specific" conclusion isn't an integral "quoted" part of the discussion.

"Doing the Math" doesn't do much good when the data isn't used in it's proper context.

Cheers!

And exactly how does what you've said in so many words differ from what I've said? Also, there is no such thing as a 'hit debuff' - The cap is 17% - the question is: "Is gearing towards 17% a gain in pre-raid gear?" Math provided us with a simple answer: "No, it isn't".

ALL stats have different values in different circumstances. The 'circumstances' variable is obviously the amount of that particular stat you currently have.

[nocturnus]

I'm going to leave this thread.

About time. You keep missing the point at hand anyway.

[Nythiz]

A lot of people seem confused why suddenly "hit has lost value"...

It hasn't; it's just the fact that intellect is now a hugely powerful stat. You used to have seperate spellpower and intellect, and now it's rolled into one stat giving you both spellpower, mana and some crit. Which is affected by kings and the like as well.

I personally think the difference is really minute anyway. There is never going to be any situation where you miss a boss kill due to being under hit capped. Seriously there are a million more factors that can influence your dps more than being slightly under hit capped. I mean i've seen the example "but what if you play perfectly and.... "; nobody ever plays perfect.... ever.
By the same reasoning you should be critcapped, because what if only you had that x% extra crit and killed that boss; nonsense too.

On the other hand when you do get that miss once in a blue moon, you might be annoyed by it. 9 out of 10 times that miss will be a regular thing you hardly even notice. But that 1 out of 10 times it will be that vital interrupt or that long cooldown that misses.
Question is whether you care enough for that oddity and bring down your average dps to prevent it.

Like said there are 2 ways to go; 3 actually:
1. You go for the best averages and you just eat the chance you'll miss; perform better overal (only slightly) and once that oddity happens you just deal with it. It's not like you can ever really be blamed for it (unless it's that vital interrupt but see point 3 for that).
2. You get to the hit cap; better save then sorry. Getting slightly slightly less overal dps, but keeping that security. Some people prefer knowing that if they launch that 30 sec CD ability that it's sure to land.
3. You are flexible. In general you go for min/max in that you pick the best stat, thus eat the hit penalty. But you keep some extra gear / food / whatever at hand so that in case you get a vital function like interrupting, that you can reach that 100% hit mark.

In the end; it really doesn't matter. Unless you're really on the cutting edge.
I mean it's just like those forum posts where someone says: "I'm doing too low dps, but i don't know what's causing it". And then some jackass answers with: "Well duuuh... you're using Int/Crit gems instead of Int/Mastery gems.... Fix that !"
Like that is going to make a huge difference. Generally with things like this and that, you're talking about a few hundred dps difference. The major dps gains are always in the execution of your rotation; placement in fights; class knowledge, when to use cooldowns, etc etc.