I think im gonna not train past 75 skill on an alt so i can get all the troll fragments i can get without stupid twilight highlands or vash locations
No world! You put YOUR hands up!
I understand how probability works, in the MOST simplest form it can be said to add probability to get the principle value of getting an item. For instance, Given : 50% chance to obtain object A on one attempt.
In the simple form I used, it could be said that you have a 100% chance to get the item after 2 attempts. REALISTICALLY
it would be .5 times .5 = chance of NOT getting the item (25%).
Btm line, DUH don't pretend you're a genius if you know how probability works. And don't be a douche just because someone wants to change their perspective.
An even more bottom line is that MATH is a agreement. If you could make the entire world agree that 2+2 = fish, that'd be a principle.
Over 4000 trollfrags + tablets used across my main and one alt, no drop, currently lvling a 70 alt to 85 thru arch, saving frags for 450+, by the time i reach 85 i estimate over 6k trollfrags.
If this fails aswell I'll have to go on my 60 alt with 150% flying. Fun stuff is fun.
That's really not how it works. Every 1% chance to drop is unaffected by the other times. Every time you solve a project you have 1% and 1% only unrelated to how many you solved earlier. New projects don't have anything to do with each other in any way when it comes to the probability of getting a rare or not.
The chance of getting something on your 101 924 912 094 510 295th try is just as high as getting it on your 1st try.
EDIT: Didn't see page 2 D:
Last edited by Xeley; 2010-12-22 at 05:15 AM.
This is, bar none, the stupidest thing I've ever heard, ever. Whoever gave you what rudimentary knowledge of math you have should be fired, and then castrated by his peers.
Bottom line? Math is not defined by popular opinion. It is defined by what is true and not true. 6 billion people saying that the earth is flat doesn't make it any more true than 6 billion saying 2x2= 6.73 in base 10.
Failure. You proceed to claim that math is natural. You made several logical fallacy as well but I won't go into them (besides that you're trying to disprove one fact by bringing another popularized notion).
Math is neither natural nor man made, it is a tool. Like any tool we can use it as we like.
After this point please stop posting about percentages, your made-believe knowledge of math and facts.
Instead please continue about Zin'Rokh and how man troll frags you've burned post 450 to get it. (Or have yet to get it)
just a friendly heads up For you guys arguing about the probability, i would like to extend a hand and help you out
the amount of tries is 135, the droprate is estimated at 1%, so the droprate of anything BUT that is 99%. therefore:
(99%)^135 x (01%)^0 = % to get that specific scenario
(.99)^135 x (.01)^0 =
.2574846067... x 1 =
= ~25.75% chance, to get 135 artifacts WITHOUT getting Zin'Rokh
so if you were to try the 136th try (and got it) it'd be
.99^135 x .01^1 = .2574846067... x .01 = .002574846.. = .25%
still better than having a .01% if you had miraculously gotten it on your first try!
Over 200 troll solves, over 300 fossil solves, just under 200 dwarf solves, ~30 night elf solves, 30ish nerubian solves, 70ish vyrkul solves.
No zin'rokh.
I did get the piece of crap Vrykul BoA, but I'm considering just throwing it out to not waste bag or bank space.
Just thought I'd share something to all the math ragers here...
img401.imageshack.us/img401/15/baronmountgraphic4.jpg
from wowhead comment (wowhead.com/item=13335#comments:id=418081)
Found this useful during my baron rivendare runs, which fyi took me 161 runs according to the achieve tracker.
On topic of the thread, I'm currently at 68 troll completes. My soul died and i went insane long ago doing these kinds of things... now its just instinct driving my corpse forward...
(MMOchamp doesnt let me post links atm so youll have to copy paste...)
The only way this logic would work is in a situation where you for example have 100 balls in a jar, 99 white balls and 1 black ball and you want the black ball and you pick out 1 ball at the time and see if it's black without puting it back for the next attempt then after 100 attempts you have 100% chance of getting the black ball on 1 of the attempts. And that is because the odds is getting better and better with each attempt, but here you still only have 1% chance of getting it on each and every attempt wich means you don't have a 100% chance of getting it after 100 attempts but you have 1% chance of getting it in 1 attempt after another. I have a pretty limited understanding of probability but I think that even if you try 135 times with 1% chance each try you still only stand att 1% chance of discovering it.
I know this was commented on earlier, but you are missing the point. The world agreeing to this would actually be changing our word for four, not changing the value of 2+2. Any term we use to represent something can be changed, you are right, but that doesn't change what that something is. Math, like most things, is defined by more than what we call it. It is not possible for 2+2 to equal fish. or kindergarten's around the world would be putting fishmongers out of business.
On topic, I'm up to 191 troll artifacts (though at least 10 or 15 would have been leveling before I got to 450). 4k fragments since I started counting, at least 80 troll tablets I think, still nothing. I've basically given it a bit of a backseat, and just do it while watching movies or something. I just wish they would make the common items sell better so that the time spent wasn't wasted entirely. All those solves netted me around 30g, which is pretty pitiful given the time invested.
hehe yours is what they're looking for, for some reason i had just remembered the wrong formula XD tho mine is good if you want to know the % of it happening, regardless of when you win it! lol.
XD should have remembered RDP (random discrete probability)
but yea that looks right, P= 1 - (.99 ^ 100) = 63.34%
Last edited by Davoo2080; 2010-12-22 at 06:39 AM.
As soon as I hit 450 in archaeology, I started solving my troll pieces.
After 6 solves, I got Zin'rokh.
Hopefully this gives some of you hope! Keep at it.
I got Zin'rokh after 3-4 solves on level 525
Now I'm after dorf fragments to make that staff for my alt, but all I get are fossil and troll digsites Sitting on over 700 fragments from both, and I already have every artifact from them :P
Ive got it after the 6th or 7th solve after i hit 525, standing in the middle of zul gurub were the old Rokh dropped!
10min later i also found the epic caster staff from dwarfs, gues im lucky on that one to