1. #1

    Can someone helpe me calculate what the odds are for this happening?

    Hello,

    After farming long and hard for the Night Elf Archaeology trinket I eventually got it and decided it was time to head to Eastern Kingdoms to try to farm the Dwarf staff. I have now worked my way through 132 (yes, I keep count) dig sites in Eastern Kingdoms, and out of those 132 dig sites 0 have been Dwarf dig sites.

    Now, as according to what I've read, 33.96% of all Eastern Kingdoms dig sites are dwarf, what are the odds of not getting a single one when going through a total of 132? I suck at math so I will leave this problem solving to someone who is better at it.

  2. #2
    Bloodsail Admiral Koen's Avatar
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    You honestly made a thread for this haha?

    I am actually really wondering how you can calculate that now.. so bring it on!

  3. #3
    its probably something like .001,

  4. #4
    shit, thats some serious bad luck there

  5. #5
    Stood in the Fire Ano's Avatar
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    0,00000000000000000000016% apparently
    Last edited by Ano; 2011-01-11 at 10:23 PM. Reason: typo :D

  6. #6
    Bloodsail Admiral Koen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diaxx View Post
    its probably something like .001,
    Well ye most likely! :P I want to see that calculation! :<

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Ano View Post
    0,00000000000000000000015% apparently
    Damn. Seems I defy the laws of probability more than I thought. :O

    EDIT: And woop woop! I just got a dwarf dig site!!! *fireworks* My 138:th dig site was a dwarf one!

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Koen View Post
    Well ye most likely! :P I want to see that calculation! :<
    Or, instead of wasting others times, you could be looking for some sites =D

  9. #9
    wish i didnt get any dwarf sites

  10. #10

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Ohly View Post
    Hello,

    After farming long and hard for the Night Elf Archaeology trinket I eventually got it and decided it was time to head to Eastern Kingdoms to try to farm the Dwarf staff. I have now worked my way through 132 (yes, I keep count) dig sites in Eastern Kingdoms, and out of those 132 dig sites 0 have been Dwarf dig sites.

    Now, as according to what I've read, 33.96% of all Eastern Kingdoms dig sites are dwarf, what are the odds of not getting a single one when going through a total of 132? I suck at math so I will leave this problem solving to someone who is better at it.
    1.6388e-24.


    To calculate the odds of something not happening, you simply do y = 1 - X, where x is the chance of it occurring.


    So, in this case,
    y = 1 - 0.3396
    y = 0.6604

    Then you take that amount and power it to Z (the amount of events).
    so
    Probability of it not occurring = y^z
    = 0.6604 ^ 132
    = 1.6388e-24.
    = aka a really, really fucking small number.

  12. #12
    Herald of the Titans Ynna's Avatar
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    More fuel for the Improbability Drive.
    Resurrected Holy Priest

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Ohly View Post
    Damn. Seems I defy the laws of probability more than I thought. :O

    EDIT: And woop woop! I just got a dwarf dig site!!! *fireworks* My 138:th dig site was a dwarf one!
    This proves that qqing about rng works for some people...once during a fishing daily, i go 50 times, no drop, i say something about it, next catch it drops... but dood...that is some crappy luck you got there.
    Quote Originally Posted by Henry Ford
    Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably why few engage in it.
    This explains a lot.

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