The Mathematics of LFG DPS

[Breccia]

"This fight sucks for melee"

Ever hear this? Ever use this? Some fights are just better for some group configs than others. So what are the odds you're stuck with a crappy group?

Each LFG group will have 3 dps-members required. There are currently 22 DPS specs in the game, 10 melee 12 ranged. Blizzard seems to want them all to be viable and played, often buffing underused classes simply because they're underused, and nerfing overused/FotM classes because, if everyone's playing them, they must be too good. It's a ride on the buff-nerf waterpark, to be sure, but they seem to want them all usable. Let's pretend, therefore, they're equally common in LFD.

This, then, is the probability of getting a particular group situation:

All 3 melee: 9%
2 melee 1 ranged: 34%
1 melee 2 ranged: 41%
All 3 ranged: 16%

So far, it'd be valid for Blizzard to balance fights around 1 melee 2 ranged, the most likely result, despite a nearly 1-in-10 shot that you get gimped with an all-melee suckfest. It makes no sense for them to design fights around melee-heavy groups, which even their ideal all-specs-equal model cannot create often. This means most fights will suck for that 9% chance.

Variation 1: Removing PvP specs
Arms warriors and Subtlety rogues have a well-deserved reputation for being much better at PvP than PvE. Let's pretend these two groups never queue up for LFD at all, ever. The numbers get slightly better under such cases.

All 3 melee: 6%
2 melee 1 ranged: 29%
1 melee 2 ranged: 43%
All 3 ranged: 22%

There isn't actually a huge change here. The chance for an all-melee group drops, but only by about 3%, which is only really noticable if you run a LOT of dungeons.

Variation 2: Dual Spec DPS
Only druids and shaman are capable of switching from melee to ranged if the situation calls for it. Even with dual-spec, however, the odds of a random druid or shaman being coincidentally range/melee dual spec is 1 in 3 if all specs are equal (in my opinion, the odds are actually lower, since heal specs get you into more places than dual dps-specs). Then what?

The odds of being stuck with 3 melee DPS drops, but not much. It's about 8% if you include the PvP-classes. It still rounds to 6% if you remove the PvP-classes. Sadly, dual-spec DPS are doing themselves and their guild a favor (they themselves can never be locked in an all-melee group, because they can switch) but not the LFD-using world at large. Sorry.

Variation 3: What if you ARE a melee DPS?
The odds of being stuck in a group of melee-only DPS is a whole lot higher if you happen to be melee yourself. Even with the most helpful assumptions above (i.e. removing PvP-specs and counting in dual-dps specs), your chance of landing in a group with two other melee is 15%, which is pretty bad, like two-and-a-half times higher bad. it is a shame, seeing how melee DPS is only barely a minority in the DPS group, but the mathematics simply screw them by lumping them only in with each other about one time in six.

Conclusions:
-- Blizzard has no valid reason to make dungeon (and, therefore, raid) bosses best handled by pure melee DPS. It's the least likely situation by all accounts.
-- If you run a random dungeon every day, you will probably get an all-melee loser group more than every other week. If you are melee yourself, you'll see it once a week at least.
-- Dual-DPS spec characters don't help the odds much, except for themselves.

Breccia

[Ciderian]

5 mans are hard and require a certain makeup to get through a random?

since when?

[Atrea]

Your math fails to take into consideration the amount of people playing these classes.

Elemental Shamans, Frost Mages, Demonology Warlocks and Balance Druids are SEVERELY under-represented.
Paladins, Death Knights and Warriors, on the other hand are among the most played classes, none of which have a non-melee spec.

Your numbers are only accurate if every class and spec had a proportionate audience, and that's just not the case.

[Breccia]

Your math fails to take into consideration the amount of people playing these classes.

Yes.

I do not believe Blizzard stops, looks at an under-represented class/spec, and says "that's right. we don't really want anyone playing demonology warlocks anyhow". I think they want each class/spec to have solid numbers. I also believe they try to balance encounters on their own numbers, not on what players actually do/have. We have all seen them change encounters in later patches when players fail to live up to their ideals.

I would run these numbers again, using the correct percentages of toons that are each class/spec/dualspec combo, if I felt I could get these numbers accurately.

[Sunseeker]

Atrea brings up an incredibly valid point. It's likewise important to consider that blood elves and blood elf paladins, often outnumber the entirety of people playing other playable races.

You also have to consider the fact that tanks are melee. which means that every group must have a minimum of one melee member. which by extension means that any group with 1 melee dps, actually has two melee members. Another important note is healadins, who often need to physically hit things to regen mana and need to come in close range for one of their most awesome heals. making healadins a sort of a psuedo-melee class.

I think there's a great deal you're ignoring, and beyond this, guild groups are not so perfectly randomized. the under-geared dk may get run by the well-geared tank and dk dps, then needing a third they might grab a rogue, and a 4th, either a healer or another dps. which again, significantly weighs the group towards melee.

Fights will always be naturally melee unfriendly just due to the nature of being closer to the boss is always more dangerous than being far away. but there's a lot you left out of your calculations.

[Iralien]

But wait, there's more!

It's pretty obvious that the LFD system not only tries to avoid placing you in a group with a person of the same class. Paladin tanks rarely ever get in a group with a Ret or Holy Paladin. Likewise for DPS DKs, Druids, and Warriors.

Since Warriors, DKs, Paladins, and Druids account for 6 of the melee specs, your tank type can reduce the chances of getting an all melee group even more. Is your tank a Warrior? Then you are all but guaranteed to NOT have a Fury or Arms warrior in your LFD group.

[Atrea]

Yes.

I do not believe Blizzard stops, looks at an under-represented class/spec, and says "that's right. we don't really want anyone playing demonology warlocks anyhow". I think they want each class/spec to have solid numbers. I also believe they try to balance encounters on their own numbers, not on what players actually do/have. We have all seen them change encounters in later patches when players fail to live up to their ideals.

I would run these numbers again, using the correct percentages of toons that are each class/spec/dualspec combo, if I felt I could get these numbers accurately.

Wanting a perfect environment so your math is primary school-easy doesn't mean you're going to get one.

[Deleted]

I'm really sleepy but I think OP based his theory on wrong assumption that every class/spec is played by the same amount of players.

Let's pretend, therefore, they're equally common in LFD

We could also pretend everybody is a healer. Or a tank. Or even better that for every 3 dps there is exacly one healer and tank. See, that theory doesn't matter much as it's based on assumptions, not facts.

Don't take it hard kk ?

[frostybeef]

Stats for calculating this stuff.

It isn't going to be perfect because you can't take into account spec choice but it's better.

[Breccia]

You also have to consider the fact that tanks are melee

Not doing tanks. Talking about DPS only.

guild groups are not so perfectly randomized.

Not talking about guild groups only. Talking about LFD groups.

Wanting a perfect environment so your math is primary school-easy doesn't mean you're going to get one.

Or even better that for every 3 dps there is exacly one healer and tank.

Blizzard makes these kinds of assumptions all the time. Dungeon drops, and the chances of getting each item, are based on the group makeups that Blizzard wants to see, not what actually happens. Grab any dungeon boss on wowhead.com and look at the loot spread. They're pretty even, based on the number of class/specs out there that can use the item, not how well/poorly classes the target classes are represented. Dungeons call for a 3-1-1 and that's what you get, even if it means the vast majority of people are waiting 10, 20, 30 minutes for their turn to play. In fact, I'm fairly sure that part of the reason this 15% Luck of the Draw buff is being applied, is because it's easier to add stats than to ensure that the already slow queue gives a good mix of melee and ranged, or to avoid the double-DK-dps groups (which I have been in).

I think you're taking the "let's pretend" part the wrong way. Maybe I should have said "this is what Blizzard thinks they're doing to you"?

[Deleted]

Well ofcourse he doesnt take the ammount of played classes into consideration. Its kinda impossible, he does show a valid point. But how about fights where ranged are not all that good? Melee´s ahve only one advantage over ranged: Movement. how about more abilities ranged dps have to take into consideration.

[frostybeef]

Blizzard makes these kinds of assumptions all the time. Dungeon drops, and the chances of getting each item, are based on the group makeups that Blizzard wants to see, not what actually happens. Grab any dungeon boss on wowhead.com and look at the loot spread. They're pretty even, based on the number of class/specs out there that can use the item, not how well/poorly classes the target classes are represented. Dungeons call for a 3-1-1 and that's what you get, even if it means the vast majority of people are waiting 10, 20, 30 minutes for their turn to play. In fact, I'm fairly sure that part of the reason this 15% Luck of the Draw buff is being applied, is because it's easier to add stats than to ensure that the already slow queue gives a good mix of melee and ranged, or to avoid the double-DK-dps groups (which I have been in).

I think you're taking the "let's pretend" part the wrong way. Maybe I should have said "this is what Blizzard thinks they're doing to you"?

The problem is Blizzard does something completely different. Your conclusions are based off purely statistics that have 0 experimental data behind them. Blizzard uses algorithms that no one else knows to determine party composition in LFD groups. your calculations neither take into account the fact that certain dps specs are played more than others or anything in Blizzards algorithm.

In short, because you aren't doing what Blizzard is doing, you can't say you are doing what Blizzard is doing.

[Sunseeker]

Not doing tanks. Talking about DPS only.

then you're tipping the equation in favor of a preferred result. granted this is how most statistics work, but still.

Not talking about guild groups only. Talking about LFD groups.

right, but the complaint of "melee heavy" is from "people in dungeons" who aren't necessarily "lfd groups"

[Allìus]

why does it matter? ive cleared every heroic sub ilvl 329 gear with 3 melee and only 1 cc. you're group comp doesnt really matter....

[SilkforCalde]

They shouldn't make it so 5 man boss fights are "best done" with full melee. They should simply make it so all 5 man bosses are possible to complete with full melee. This is true for most of them.

BRC:
1st boss - no penalty for melee vs ranged
2nd boss - need someone to break the beam unless you plan on killing the adds. Assuming tank + healer each on a beam, that leaves one dps and melee can do it, but they won't be contributing much to dps. Not optimal but viable.
3rd boss - no penalty for melee vs ranged
4th boss (Beauty) - as long as you have the proper CC ranged vs melee makes no difference. easier to satisfy the dps requirements with ranged (hunter, warlock, mage) but druid, shaman melee works.
5th boss - need 2 dps on the boss (no diff between ranged and melee) and one kiter. kiter can be an enhance shaman / fury warrior no problem. but ret pally can't do it. feral druid can't do it. rogue can do it but will require a bit more trickiness. dk can do it inefficiently. elemental shaman and hunter are best by far.

Most of the heroics are similar to this. There are only a couple bosses that are flat out impossible with full melee, like Corborus.

---------- Post added 2011-02-07 at 10:09 PM ----------

why does it matter? ive cleared every heroic sub ilvl 329 gear with 3 melee and only 1 cc. you're group comp doesnt really matter....

This is false. You cannot kill Corborus without ranged AOE.

[takolin]

They shouldn't make it so 5 man boss fights are "best done" with full melee. They should simply make it so all 5 man bosses are possible to complete with full melee. This is true for most of them.

BRC:
1st boss - no penalty for melee vs ranged
2nd boss - need someone to break the beam unless you plan on killing the adds. Assuming tank + healer each on a beam, that leaves one dps and melee can do it, but they won't be contributing much to dps. Not optimal but viable.
3rd boss - no penalty for melee vs ranged
4th boss (Beauty) - as long as you have the proper CC ranged vs melee makes no difference. easier to satisfy the dps requirements with ranged (hunter, warlock, mage) but druid, shaman melee works.
5th boss - need 2 dps on the boss (no diff between ranged and melee) and one kiter. kiter can be an enhance shaman / fury warrior no problem. but ret pally can't do it. feral druid can't do it. rogue can do it but will require a bit more trickiness. dk can do it inefficiently. elemental shaman and hunter are best by far.

Most of the heroics are similar to this. There are only a couple bosses that are flat out impossible with full melee, like Corborus.

---------- Post added 2011-02-07 at 10:09 PM ----------



This is false. You cannot kill Corborus without ranged AOE.

Frost DK + howling blast say hi for the bolded bits.

[frostybeef]

The major problem is that your going to have all of your melee absurdly close to the shards when they spawn. It is do able but it's about 10 times harder without a ranged.

[SilkforCalde]

Frost DK + howling blast say hi for the bolded bits.

Howling Blast will still cause the DK to get hit by the adds because he will be in range of the exposion. It's also a very poor solution and after 4.0.6 will not be viable after the devastating howling blast nerf.

[Waynhim]

Can't really think of a fight where my alt enh shaman is gimping the group. (Gimping as go below 9k DPS).

Maybe last boss Vortex if no priest.

I'd venture that there are more fights favouring melee dps, since they can dps on the move, then casters that rely on cast times.