An Interesting Theory about Rares Procc Chance in Archaeology

[Etdrit]

Hello fellow archaeologist rare (*cough* Zin'Rokh *cough*) hunters.
I was surfing around on the internet yesterday night whilst farming archaeology for Zin'Rokh, when I came across this interesting theory about how the procc/drop chances of rares work while solving artifacts.

Here's the link:
http://www.winterwolves.org/index.ht...-explained-r27

I immediately started levelling archaeology on my Warrior after reading this, however, I would like your opinion on this theory because I don't want all this farming going to waste for just the same percentages of getting Zin'Rokh.

So, what do you guys think about this theory?

[Bostitch]

His initial assumptions are consistent with what I've experienced myself (#3 is the important one), so from personal experience, his theory holds true.

[Deleted]

Got 525 arch on 2 toons , no zin'rokh , no dwarf staff , no tol'vir staff and all commons have been found. (started solving those races after getting 525skill, lvel-ed it on nelf/fossil only)
So i'd say , it's all up to that damn RNG ,you could level it on all your alts and still never see any of them.

[Samthemann]

Got 525 arch on 2 toons , no zin'rokh , no dwarf staff , no tol'vir staff and all commons have been found. (started solving those races after getting 525skill, lvel-ed it on nelf/fossil only)
So i'd say , it's all up to that damn RNG ,you could level it on all your alts and still never see any of them.

You, sir, are a sadist.

[marrefar]

Maby I'll start lvl arch on my rogue now :O

[vizzle]

No.

I leveled to 450 while only solving Fossils and Dwarves, collecting in Kalimdor. Saving all the Nelf fragments until I was 450, trying to go for Tyrande's Favorite Doll. But still, even though I hadn't completed 1 single Nelf artifact before 450, I didn't get TFDoll until long after I was 525 on my 80th something solve.

It's all RNG, take your tin foil hats off. It is always 1%. The most logical way, when you're down to just your rares and 1 more common artifact, would be that the 1 common artifact would have a 99% chance while the rare stays at a 1% chance.

[Samthemann]

lol 80th you poor thing, I've made over 275 after 450 skill (also not solving any until then) and have yet to get the doll. I have the professor title but never got the 1 rare i started it all for. I agree it is all just RNG and some people get what they want fast, and others just won't get it. C'est la vie.

[Farrago]

very interesting! just leveled arch on an alt going for the sword

[Mammoth]

It's all RNG, take your tin foil hats off. It is always 1%. The most logical way, when you're down to just your rares and 1 more common artifact, would be that the 1 common artifact would have a 99% chance while the rare stays at a 1% chance.

Did you read the link?

It is all RNG, but it is saying that the %s are all normalised for having every common available. However you can't get a duplicate common until you have the full set of commons. This means that the relative % for rares increases as the number of commons you have yet to collect decreases. Yet if you complete all your commons, then you can get any common come back again, this drasticly decreases the relative % for rares.

It makes sense as long as the initial assumption that "the %s are all normalised for having every common available" and is not simply split into an initial common/rare/epic roll. Personally the assumption sounds more likely.

[wowplayer]

i dont get it...i have all troll solves and many of them probably solved 2-5 times. so according to him, i should have had a 50% chance a long time ago...damn i am unlucky. although i do have the tolvir mount, dwarf staff, tolvir ring, and the doll (in addition to some of those useless ones).

the next patch will make the sword obsolete so i quit looking, plus my melee got the mace from the worm.

[Etdrit]

i dont get it...i have all troll solves and many of them probably solved 2-5 times. so according to him, i should have had a 50% chance a long time ago...damn i am unlucky. although i do have the tolvir mount, dwarf staff, tolvir ring, and the doll (in addition to some of those useless ones).

the next patch will make the sword obsolete so i quit looking, plus my melee got the mace from the worm.

I think you misinterpreted the idea of this theory. The thing is that when you have completed all commons, the chance of receiving a rare while solving is decreased drastically.

And btw, what do you mean "the next patch will make the sword obsolete"? Are they going to change something about it or is it because epics will be easier to get?
I don't want it just because it's epic though, it's also because it's so damn beatiful!

[Tziva]

The entire premise of the article rests on point 3, but it's not true. I have gotten duplicate common artifacts before I have completed the rest of them, sometimes multiple times in a row.

[Hulm]

The entire premise of the article rests on point 3, but it's not true. I have gotten duplicate common artifacts before I have completed the rest of them, sometimes multiple times in a row.

I've gotten this as well.

[Ozy]

The entire premise of the article rests on point 3, but it's not true. I have gotten duplicate common artifacts before I have completed the rest of them, sometimes multiple times in a row.

I agree, I had made 3 of one common before i had made all commons to that race....as a matter of fact the race was Troll...to which i still have not gotten a rare from.

[CookieEater]

However you can't get a duplicate common until you have the full set of commons.

Problem being that I got my second Fetish or Hir'eek, or whatever it's called, before doing all Troll commons once.

[jobdone]

And btw, what do you mean "the next patch will make the sword obsolete"? Are they going to change something about it or is it because epics will be easier to get?

No, it means new tier will be out, along with new weapons (higher ilvl) so this weapon will no longer be BiS (or close to BiS).

[Thomasaquina]

The logic feels right in his post. It makes sense, even though its not terribly helpful for most people. I would much rather fly around on my one toon with 525 archaelogy, then regrind that shit again. No f-ing way.

[Cernunnos]

Yeah seems logical enough, but i think he was just lucky, I made numerous duplicate commons for dwarf and troll before I had made every common those races have to offer.

I went from 450-525 with nothing but troll from having saved them all up since the beginning, back when you could get more than 200 fragments per race.

[Tziva]

The logic feels right in his post. It makes sense, even though its not terribly helpful for most people. I would much rather fly around on my one toon with 525 archaelogy, then regrind that shit again. No f-ing way.

In theory, it makes sense, is well thought out, and is a good theory... but it's all for naught since the foundation of it all is a premise that is false. Which means a lot of people are regrinding archeology for nothing, which is sad considering how time consuming it is to level.

[Kragragh]

The entire premise of the article rests on point 3, but it's not true. I have gotten duplicate common artifacts before I have completed the rest of them, sometimes multiple times in a row.

Same here.