I think Winnipeg is the bigger threat to Carolina than Tampa Bay, but I still feel that Carolina will end the season with the division win by a big margin.I was like half asleep when I wrote that, which is why I didn't go into depth at all. Without Ward, Carolina and Tampa are actually pretty even. Their blue line and goalie skill is close, Lindback has a higher ceiling than Ellis, but for this season they're similar. I disagree that Carolina quite matches Tampa in skill up front though. Carolina improved a ton during the offseason obviously, and I had actually originally picked them to win the division. But, I like Tampa's offense more than I like Carolina's. Carolina's not too far behind Tampa, there's only like a .3 goals per game difference. But, the fact is that Semin tends to be pretty streaky. He's absolutely on fire right now, but I don't see that lasting all season. Whereas Stamkos, Lecavlier, and St. Louis are all pretty damn consistent. Tampa's been on a slide lately, but I can see them coming out of their funk to make a strong second half playoff push.
As for Washington, it's completely going to hinge on goalie play. If Holtby can just be more consistent, he can steal a hell of a lot of games for them just like he did last postseason. It completely depends on him though. If he isn't stellar, then yeah I agree with you that they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.