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  1. #1
    Bloodsail Admiral Dashield28's Avatar
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    600k Sub Loss EXPLAINED

    First off, I would like to say to all of those people claiming "LOL 600k thats like 5% pff thats nothing" that you obviously have no concept of business or math. Please stop posting your "opinions" on any topics related to that.

    For everyone else who actually wants to understand how that works, please see below.

    I will start my estimations based on first quarter of 2010 announcement. This follows the recovery track after China rejoined, and the announcement of CATA release the following December.

    In January of 2010, there were 11.5mil subscribers. In October, there were 12mil. An increase of .5mil over 3/4ths of a year (roughly). Which is .667mil/year. This was a pretty steady growth as can be found on mmodata.net.

    In early May, Blizz announced the loss, meaning they are at 11.4mil subscribers. But this is only half the story.

    I give you this argument. The trolls who state that 5% decrease is nothing, WOULD BE RIGHT, if NO ONE JOINED WOW between October 2010 and May 2011. So Imagine that over a period of (for simplicity) 6 months, no one person opened an account. None of us believe that. So, here is what happened.

    We take the estimated growth from between Jan - Oct of 2011, average it out (.667mil/year or .333 mil/ 6 months).

    Next we add that to the 12mil announced in Oct. - 12.333mil. Why? Because this would be the total of subscritions we would estimate based on steady growth observed over 3/4ths of the year before 12mil to carry on until the announcement made in May.

    So, assuming that people joined wow at a steady rate and left at a steady rate (new accounts > cancelled accounts) Blizzard should have announced that in May they had 12.333mil subscibers.

    But, they said their new total was 11.4mil and they claimed they lost 600k subscriptions. THAT IS A LIE. BLATANT LIE. Those who do not know any better, would take them at their word.

    Everyone else would be like: So Blizzard, you mean to tell me that you stopped taking new subscriptions? o'rly? You closed wow to new people? LIAR YOU HAVE RECRUIT A FRIEND.

    Now that we all know that was a lie and people kept joining and given all same conditions blizzard should have 12.333mil, but they have 11.4 mil. SOOOOO the actual loss over the period of OCT - MAY is roughly (guestimated, on the low end, as in, it could be higher than this).

    933k Subs LOST

    Not such small potatos anymore? Is it? As less and less people joined, more and more people left creating a deficit.

    I hope more people understand this now.

  2. #2
    To Long Did Not Read

    Infracted.
    Last edited by Elysia; 2011-05-25 at 09:19 PM.

  3. #3
    Lies, damn lies and statistics.

    And yes, you're probably correct - perhaps even underestimating the level they were at before the drop offs imo.
    I remember when, I remember I remember when I lost my mind,
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  4. #4
    You do know that Cataclysm isn't out in China yet and shitloads of subs were lost when the massive ban-waves came out. Also it's normal for people to unsub when they have completed the raids already many times and there will be lots and lots of people re subscribing after 4.2 hits.

    Not so big potatos anymore? Is it?

    I hope you understand this now.

  5. #5
    Please stop posting your "opinions" on any topics related to this.

    You haven't been given any facts or figures on this topic, other than what Blizzard has provided us, therefore there is nothing we can do but take their word for it.

  6. #6
    I would be more glad if they would lose more. Maybe they can wake up and see where they are going.

  7. #7
    I didn't read that but i can accoutn for 1 for sure.

  8. #8
    Why does it even matter? Yes, in actuality they lost more than 600k but all you're doing is estimating without even knowing how many people joined over that period.

    Also, you yourself state that all of your estimations are based off of the assumption that customers leave and join at a steady rate, which is simply not true.


    Also, BLATANT LIE =/= Half Truth

  9. #9
    Bloodsail Admiral Dashield28's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roitto View Post
    You do know that Cataclysm isn't out in China yet and shitloads of subs were lost when the massive ban-waves came out. Also it's normal for people to unsub when they have completed the raids already many times and there will be lots and lots of people re subscribing after 4.2 hits.

    Not so big potatos anymore? Is it?

    I hope you understand this now.
    That has always been the case, people get bored people leave, new people join, happens with every expac when it is right before a new one. 30% of the people i know in game came back to the game after being bored in wotlk for CATA, meaning that number should have increased.

    Also you are assuming that the majority of the closed accounts are from china. and you are also assuming that just because one bot gets banned, he doesnt open 20 new accounts.

    I hope you understand this now.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Dashield28 View Post
    First off, I would like to say to all of those people claiming "LOL 600k thats like 5% pff thats nothing" that you obviously have no concept of business or math. Please stop posting your "opinions" on any topics related to that.

    For everyone else who actually wants to understand how that works, please see below.

    I will start my estimations based on first quarter of 2010 announcement. This follows the recovery track after China rejoined, and the announcement of CATA release the following December.

    In January of 2010, there were 11.5mil subscribers. In October, there were 12mil. An increase of .5mil over 3/4ths of a year (roughly). Which is .667mil/year. This was a pretty steady growth as can be found on mmodata.net.

    In early May, Blizz announced the loss, meaning they are at 11.4mil subscribers. But this is only half the story.

    I give you this argument. The trolls who state that 5% decrease is nothing, WOULD BE RIGHT, if NO ONE JOINED WOW between October 2010 and May 2011. So Imagine that over a period of (for simplicity) 6 months, no one person opened an account. None of us believe that. So, here is what happened.

    We take the estimated growth from between Jan - Oct of 2011, average it out (.667mil/year or .333 mil/ 6 months).

    Next we add that to the 12mil announced in Oct. - 12.333mil. Why? Because this would be the total of subscritions we would estimate based on steady growth observed over 3/4ths of the year before 12mil to carry on until the announcement made in May.

    So, assuming that people joined wow at a steady rate and left at a steady rate (new accounts > cancelled accounts) Blizzard should have announced that in May they had 12.333mil subscibers.

    But, they said their new total was 11.4mil and they claimed they lost 600k subscriptions. THAT IS A LIE. BLATANT LIE. Those who do not know any better, would take them at their word.

    Everyone else would be like: So Blizzard, you mean to tell me that you stopped taking new subscriptions? o'rly? You closed wow to new people? LIAR YOU HAVE RECRUIT A FRIEND.

    Now that we all know that was a lie and people kept joining and given all same conditions blizzard should have 12.333mil, but they have 11.4 mil. SOOOOO the actual loss over the period of OCT - MAY is roughly (guestimated, on the low end, as in, it could be higher than this).

    933k Subs LOST

    Not such small potatos anymore? Is it? As less and less people joined, more and more people left creating a deficit.

    I hope more people understand this now.
    You're right, WoW is dying, and will be dead soon. It will be replaced by all the other superawesomefudgetime games coming out.
    Seriously, just like all the doomsayers, you will be proven wrong in a few months.
    The 600k is just burned out people, most will return. The numbers fluctuate, always have, always will.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Roitto View Post
    You do know that Cataclysm isn't out in China yet and shitloads of subs were lost when the massive ban-waves came out. Also it's normal for people to unsub when they have completed the raids already many times and there will be lots and lots of people re subscribing after 4.2 hits.

    Not so big potatos anymore? Is it?

    I hope you understand this now.
    In the earnings call, they said the losses were in NA/Europe and that they had happened faster than in previous expansions. This is from the Blizzard CEO, so I think I'll believe it over a bunch of fanboy speculation on the internet.

  12. #12
    Bloodsail Admiral Dashield28's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brusalk View Post
    Why does it even matter? Yes, in actuality they lost more than 600k but all you're doing is estimating without even knowing how many people joined over that period.

    Also, you yourself state that all of your estimations are based off of the assumption that customers leave and join at a steady rate, which is simply not true.


    Also, BLATANT LIE =/= Half Truth
    Because it pisses me off when there are ppl out there saying that its just 600k when it is not and I am tired of trying to correct them.

    The assumption is based off mmodata.net, which shows a near stead increase. therefore the average over 3/4ths of a year.

    ---------- Post added 2011-05-25 at 03:46 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Masaowolf View Post
    You're right, WoW is dying, and will be dead soon. It will be replaced by all the other superawesomefudgetime games coming out.
    Seriously, just like all the doomsayers, you will be proven wrong in a few months.
    The 600k is just burned out people, most will return. The numbers fluctuate, always have, always will.
    I didnt say it was dieing, i dont want it to die, i just want people out there who think that 5% loss is nothing to see that it is more than that. I also want them to know that blizz really has to start stepping up.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Dashield28 View Post
    First off, I would like to say to all of those people claiming "LOL 600k thats like 5% pff thats nothing" that you obviously have no concept of business or math. Please stop posting your "opinions" on any topics related to that.

    For everyone else who actually wants to understand how that works, please see below.

    I will start my estimations based on first quarter of 2010 announcement.
    Stopped reading there.

  14. #14
    Bloodsail Admiral Fierae's Avatar
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    Your prediction model is as close as anyone else has come to actually guessing the real amount of lost players.

    It does statistically make sense, but facts will always prevail.

    Unfortunately, noone actually has any solid facts at all.

    People can argue boths sides, but it's all mostly guesswork.
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  15. #15
    Bloodsail Admiral Dashield28's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mokka View Post
    Stopped reading there.
    "Announcement" too big a word for you?

  16. #16
    sorry but there are too many assumptions here without any real sources (no, mmodata.net is not a valid source). based on my experience i'd say there is not a steady state change over time but is hugely spikey based on advertising campaigns, new games / patches etc.

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  17. #17
    There were ppl who didn't get that on first reading about the 600k loss? I didn't calculate it to see how much they would have gained by that period and they had fallen behind 600k (so the actual 933K like u mentioned) but i knew there were more ppl quiting then the 600k, its probably lower then 933k since the influx should have happened around cata launch? and the gain is never linear

    I get your point though

  18. #18
    why does this matter?
    Quote Originally Posted by TerraMagus View Post
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  19. #19
    Bloodsail Admiral Dashield28's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ophion1990 View Post
    There were ppl who didn't get that on first reading about the 600k loss? I didn't calculate it to see how much they would have gained by that period and they had fallen behind 600k (so the actual 933K like u mentioned) but i knew there were more ppl quiting then the 600k, its probably lower then 933k since the influx should have happened around cata launch? and the gain is never linear

    I get your point though
    Thanks. I actually think it is much higher than 933 since so many more people came back for Cata. Remember the OCT release was 2 months before CATA release. I still see people coming back to WOW even 6 months after release. Given the people coming back, and new people joining, i think the actual number would be around 1.1 mil.

  20. #20
    OP is delusional and has no real explanation other than "this is why I think it happened"

    This thread is SO original, try the search feature before stepping up to the soap box buddy
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