Tol'vir solves pattern

[Deleted]

I am currently between 150-200 solves and I haven't had a rare since 90 solves I think (it was the staff) this post actually gave me some faith to keep farming for 250+ solves so my mount might pop up.

[Sanctioned]

Another RNG is RNG topic. Why can some people not remember random means

Random - 1.proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern: the random selection of numbers.
2.Statistics . of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.

[Deleted]

Got the scarab thingie on my third solve followed by the ring on my 40:th solve. Just hoping that I can get the mount in a near future and of course the pet as I'm collecting them ^^

[rzzr]

Hmmn pattern holds for me so far, got the scarab thingie and currently working on ring.. I think OP is onto something..

[Leobald]

Hmmn pattern holds for me so far, got the scarab thingie and currently working on ring.. I think OP is onto something..

90% of people (estimated) get the ring and the scarab thingie within their first 10 Tol'Vir solves. No big mystery there. These two items have clearly much higher droprates than the other Tol'Vir "rares" (mount, staff, etc.), so unless you get unlucky, you are bound to get them early on.

[Shartadin]

Some programmer help me, but even RNG needs to be programmed. Why else do so many people have the raptor mount and pet and so few the Troll sword?

Computers are logical. They have no concept of true randomness. Instead, when you write a program that needs "random" numbers, you instead are generating what is properly called pseudo-random numbers.

In laymen's terms, your computer has a huge list of possible numbers (some power of 2, depending on your system and the particular implementation - i.e., 2^64 possibilities) and people implement algorithms that jump around and pass out numbers from that huge list in a seemingly random (but in reality, completely deterministic) way. The starting point for the algorithm is called the seed, and how you set your seed is often just as important as the algorithm for generating the "most random" numbers.

For all intents and purposes, though, the numbers are actually random. The reason so many people have those two items is because the probability of their appearing in your archaeology queue is higher than the sword.

The way I imagine it works is that all rare items in a race have some small probability of appearing (not the same across all items - for instance maybe the bug mount is a 0.1% pop in Tol'vir and the ring is a 10% pop - completely imaginary numbers). Then, say, the probability of solving 10 artifacts in Tol'vir and not getting the bug mount is much, much higher than for the ring. For that particular probability, given that which artifact pops is actually independent from previous finds (I'd guess it is, up to prevention of repeats) you still have a > 80% chance to not find the mount after 200 solves. The number I guess is probably too low, as I'd say significantly less than 80% of people who have done 200 solves in Tol'vir have the mount, but maybe not.

[Drakhar]

The cause of your 'pattern' is nothing more than variations in drop rate. Given a large enough sample size, it may appear that there is some rhyme and rhythm to it, but there in fact is not. Random numbers are random (no need for a debate over whether computers can actually generate a truly random number, see above, ninja'd :P). It's more than likely you're going to get the items with a 10% proc chance before you get the items with a 5% proc chance before finally that last pesky one with a 1% proc chance pops (numbers are obviously made up). In fact, we can probably determine the proc chance for each item with a large sample of which # solve they popped up for people.

/thread

[The One Percent]

I got the bug mount on my first and only tolvir solve. Never solved anything else, not common or rare.

[Speaknoevil]

I can confirm these.

I didn't keep track at what numbers... but:

1) Scarab Pendant
2) Ring
3) Recipe
4) Really hoping for the pet here

[morpsend]

This is going to be a very rough estimate aside from the recipe/mount:
~8 - Ring
~15 - Scarab
~35 - Staff
~55 - Pet
~80 - Sword
104 - Recipe (16'th Jar)
109 - Mount

Edit: My numbers make Morpsend cry

hmm let me guess mine

~10 - ring
~12 - pet
~30 - scarab
86 - mount
220 - sword
810 - staff

all commons above 100 solves
Canopic jars = 99 no recipe(cant get it)

[Deleted]

Morsend, your sig is very accurate. Holy cow..

I'm not much of a digger myself, I had the ring at 15, scarab at 22.. and never really continued. The pattern people seem to be confirming seems accurate with the Professors in my guild.

[Deleted]

Hey, got my bug mount just a few minutes ago, the 27st Tol'Vir solve with this char,
unbelievable, my other char just have about 270 solves and no mount as far
seems to be a very lucky day

cheers Chris

[Lotharfox]

I got one each of the grays, then the ring. THen I got one of each gray again, and the scarab. So I thought it was a pattern that way. Then I got three of the oasis tiles in a row, about a dozen grays, and no rares. I just want the hand.

[xxyn]

Over 40 canopic jars opened and still no pattern and no rares in all my other solves besides the ring and pendant =\ sigh... I know it's been said many times, but I really hate archaeology.

[coachuser]

good.i love this game.

[grandpab]

I had the mount recipe from my first jar, within about 5 tol'vir solves. It was actually the one and only jar I've ever gotten, and I was the first person on my server afaik. The mount I got at 29 solves, and then I got the pendant and ring before that.

[Blackwing-Lairz]

7 Scarab Storm, 16 Ring, currently sitting at about 120 with no luck on anything else /cry