[Warlock] Legendary Staff stuff

[gherkin]

It's in SimCraft now, so I ran the numbers for warlocks.
We know that the proc copies the damage done on a random chance. This means that the dot tick will be copied, not the dot itself. We don't know the proc chance by spec, and it appears that Blizzard is able to change the proc rate on a spec by spec basis.

So rather than wait, I figured "Hey, lets just do every % that seems likely."

This is our baseline:
http://simulationcraft.org/410/warlock_auto.html

Affliction (Shadow Bolt) 29160
Demonology 26723
Destruction 27549

First, I gave each profile the staff with full stat values, enchanted, with 3 Brilliant Inferno Rubies, and set the proc rate to basically 0 (0.00001). This gave us a baseline. From here, I increase the proc rate by 1% at a time and plot the trend:

	Base	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%
Affl	31590	31865	32083	32338	32576	32853	33057
Demo	29804	30021	30217	30448	30607	30824	31033
Destro	31568	31837	32048	32293	32541	32784	33036

I can then take these values and find out what % damage increase we get on a point by point basis:

	Base	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%
Affl	31590	31865	32083	32338	32576	32853	33057
Demo	29804	30021	30217	30448	30607	30824	31033
Destro	31568	31837	32048	32293	32541	32784	33036

The averages are:
Affliction: 0.78% DPS increase per 1% proc rate.
Demonology: 0.69% DPS increase per 1% proc rate.
Destruction: 0.76% DPS increase per 1% proc rate.


For those of you who don't like percentages, this works out to an average of:
Affliction: 248 DPS increase per 1% proc rate.
Demonology: 206 DPS increase per 1% proc rate.
Destruction: 243 DPS increase per 1% proc rate.


Please note that this degree of separation is so tiny that RNG, fight length, player skill, etc are all more likely to make a bigger difference than the staff itself.

---------- Post added 2011-06-27 at 01:14 PM ----------

To make it perfectly clear:

We do not know the proc rate of this staff.

[Deleted]

What proc chance seems most realistic? Can't tell... 1% most likely isn't.

Yes, I do know the chance is UNKNOWN - just looking for guesses. :3

[gherkin]

I can see 5-6% being possible. It's a legendary, the stats are good but not THAT good. Thus the proc defines it, and 1000-2000 dps from it seems likely.

[Eurytos]

i have a question. please dont think me stupid, as i have very little knowledge of simcrafting and such.

but, take it in reverse. if the proc rate was 100% that would mean everything you do is copied and therefore a 100% increase in your dps. ie doubling your dps.

so with that in mind, and assuming your numbers and percentages are also correct, ~.75% dps increase at 1% proc rate, then is it safe to assume that the %dps increase grows closer to the actual % proc rate the higher the proc chance?

maybe im way off, and dont know what im talking about, feel free to correct me

[gherkin]

The proc copies a spell when it damages the target. However, pet attacks are not considered our spells, they are the pets.

For the Base Affliction profile of 31590 dps, the pet did 6245 dps. If we remove the pet from the equation, we get 31590-6245 / 31590 = 80% of maximum dps. We also have to back out the Doomguard and the proc'd imps from bane of doom. This results in around ~75% of our dps being from spells which can be copied, or .75%

This is why they will adjust proc rates on a spec by spec basis. Arcane Mages get almost all of their damage from direct damage and ramped up spells. If the proc rate was high because warlocks needed it to counter the pet damage problem, then they would copy more large Arcane Blasts and get more dps from it. The goal here is equality and adaptability to class balancing.

[Ssateneth]

Blizz did mention that they were going to take pets into account, probably on a per class and spec basis, so specs that get a higher damage done from their pets will have a higher proc % on their staff to compensate. I need to go to work right now though so I can't be bothered to find the source.

[gherkin]

It's ok, I saw the source too

http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/2226155590


The initial guesses put locks at 5-6% or more with Mages and Druids at 1-3%.

[Eurytos]

i see now.
for some reason i thought they said in the "pet friendly" post that the pets dmg would be considered too.

regardless, am I to assume that afflic and destruction get more dps from there pets than demo? considering your numbers, demo is the lowest, meaning they get more dmg from their actual cast spells in relation to their pet than the other two lock specs

maybe i was mistaken on that as well, assuming demo pets did more dmg than afflic/destro pets in relation to their caster.

[Seranos]

Nice work gherkin. Cool to see some actual numbers, even if they are just guesswork at this point.

[gherkin]

i see now.
for some reason i thought they said in the "pet friendly" post that the pets dmg would be considered too.

regardless, am I to assume that afflic and destruction get more dps from there pets than demo? considering your numbers, demo is the lowest, meaning they get more dmg from their actual cast spells in relation to their pet than the other two lock specs

maybe i was mistaken on that as well, assuming demo pets did more dmg than afflic/destro pets in relation to their caster.

Demo being the lowest means it gets MORE damage from their pet, and thus has a higher proc rate.
The guy who plugged the proc into SimCraft suggested that Affliction 6%, Destruction 6.5%, and Demonology 9% was close. We have to see what it is on live though.

[Gobuchul]

What is the point of this thread? The proc is extremely uninteresting from a mathematical point of view. Your simulations are basically just calculating how large a percentage of each spec's damage comes from pets and guardians. You could have gleaned that information from published simulation results using simple arithmetic instead of running all of these simulations.

The only interesting part about the proc, and what will ultimately decide who the staff is most valuable for, is how bad Blizzard is at estimating the dps contribution of pets for each class/spec. If they do a perfect job on that, and set the various proc rates accordingly, the staff's proc will be 100% identical in value to every caster.

Of course we know they won't do a perfect job, but we'll just have to wait and find out who gets lucky. Trying to do "math" on this at the current time is entirely pointless.

[Shadowdoom]

http://simulationcraft.org/410/warlock_auto.html

Demo spec in this sim still use succubus as a pet and glyph of lash of pain instead of Incinerate/Corruption. If you change the pet and glyph I think demo would get a lot higher dps.

What is the point of this thread? The proc is extremely uninteresting from a mathematical point of view. Your simulations are basically just calculating how large a percentage of each spec's damage comes from pets and guardians. You could have gleaned that information from published simulation results using simple arithmetic instead of running all of these simulations.

I dont think it's only about the ratio of the lock : pet, but it also shows the benefit of each spec in terms of spells that the staff will duplicate. For exp, dots, from affliction = UA+Cor+Doom and dots from destro = Immolate+Cor+BE+Doom. All dots from affliction average crit dmg are more than 12k while BE of destro for exp, only ticks for about 1.2-2k and no crit, and Corruption of destro average crit dmg is only 6-7k.

So the chance that the staff will duplicate the dots dmg from affliction will have more chance of duplicate the higher dmg than the dots from destro. This is just an example only the dot and I bring this exp up because we have too many dots so the chance of the staff duplicating the dot will be higher than the nuke spell like SB or Conflagate. This is why I think the result of the OP's simcraft is not only about the ratio of the pet and its summoner as you said.

[gherkin]

What is the point of this thread? The proc is extremely uninteresting from a mathematical point of view. Your simulations are basically just calculating how large a percentage of each spec's damage comes from pets and guardians. You could have gleaned that information from published simulation results using simple arithmetic instead of running all of these simulations.

The only interesting part about the proc, and what will ultimately decide who the staff is most valuable for, is how bad Blizzard is at estimating the dps contribution of pets for each class/spec. If they do a perfect job on that, and set the various proc rates accordingly, the staff's proc will be 100% identical in value to every caster.

Of course we know they won't do a perfect job, but we'll just have to wait and find out who gets lucky. Trying to do "math" on this at the current time is entirely pointless.

People asked, I did the leg work. I know it's basically Proc Rate x % of damage from player.

If you don't need to know, or think it's pointless, then this post was not for you. I'm sorry the title is misleading. I'll change it.

[kosuko]

Talking about the staff and % chances.. Anything known yet about the drop chances of the 25 (living? embers), the 25 legendary shards and the heart of ragnaros? Aswell as the difference between 10 and 25 man?

[gherkin]

This is my guess, so double check it :P
First 25 shards: 100%
Second 25 shards: 100% in 25 man, 33-50% in 10 man
Heart of Ragnaros: 100% if you're on the quest.

[Lumikor]

while we at it, how hard is it going to get it?

we are three top raiders, all three of us want to get it. i'm the third on the list. 10 man raids, four times a week.

Is there a chance i'll see it while it's still hot?

[Penguin FTW]

Started my Legendary collection, guild leader hadn't said who would get it until Shannox died and he passed out the embers so I'm hyped as fuck

[kosuko]

hm, apparantly the first 25 items have a 100-300% drop chance.

[Aeiri]

while we at it, how hard is it going to get it?

we are three top raiders, all three of us want to get it. i'm the third on the list. 10 man raids, four times a week.

Is there a chance i'll see it while it's still hot?

If the Embers are 100% chance then it takes a month to finish that part of the quest(a few bosses on the 4th week will go towards the next person in line). Then say 1-2 months depending on drop chance/luck to get the next 25 shards. Depends on how long this tier will be out.

[-Zait-]

Random, but I wonder if it duplicates your spell animation also o: