i like them
A lot of people seem to think that our 4pc bonus is extremely powerful, I don't share that opinion and already presented my reasonings on the Blizzard foruns. Now i'll back up my post with a model that calculates the T13 4pc bonus and compares it to the T12 4pc bonus.
Original post:
Quote:
I'm concerned about our t13 4pc bonus. It is lackluster in comparison with the t12 bonus.
The 4pc bonus was designed to reduce the impact of bad RNG, specially in the opening phase, and accomplishes its design. Having a guaranteed source of shadow orbs helps us get empowered shadows running as soon as possible instead of wasting procs waiting for a shadow orb.
The problem is that the opening is a small part of the fight and we can already maintain an uptime higher than 96%, so even if the bonus could bring us to 99% uptime it wouldn't be that much of an increase.
Also, we are limited by MB cooldown. It doesn't matter how many shadowy apparitions or shadow fiend attacks we get in between mind blasts, we'll only be able to use the first proc and even then the bonus won't be completely useful since we usually have shadow orbs from MF and SW:P.
Another problem is that most of the bonus is tied to shadowy apparitions and we know the buggy nature of this talent on encounters with flying phases or platforms. The last boss in this expansion is a dragon and most likely will have a flying phase, I don't want to change back to T12 because T13 is useless.
What I suggest is to tie something else to the 4pc bonus, I'd like to see a MB cd reduction. I know this was supposed to be the T12 bonus before it was changed, but it makes more sense now. There is a synergy between both bonuses, MB cd reduction greatly reduces the number of wasted orb procs and the shadowy apparitions (the orbs) counters the lesser usage of mind flay and the lower empowered shadow uptime we'd get, mainly in a multidot scenario.
The MB cd reduction also provides some change to our current rotation after 4.0. The rotation would feel more fast paced without becoming overwhelming.
Whatever our bonuses are I'd like to see something changing our rotation.
Finally, I'm not advocating for overpower bonuses, but I don't want to be stuck in T12 nor I want a bonus bugged on some fights.
Now the math:
Let's start with a no movement single target patchwerk fight.
The T12 bonus is pretty easy to calculate, it's a 25% bonus applied after all other calculations and does not depends on your mastery nor shadow orbs nor other procs and it's up all the time (assuming you don't let it fall, which is a reasonable assumption in a patchwerk fight).
The T13 bonus is a little more complex as it depends on mastery rating, the ratio of mind blasts with 0, 1, 2 or 3 shadow orbs over the total of mind blasts cast and the proc rate of shadowy apparitions.
I'll suppose the shadow orbs increase MB damage by 30% per orb (you can use any number depending on your mastery).
The contribution of the bonus depends on the number of shadow orbs you'd have at the moment MB hits, if MB was to hit without any orbs we gain 90% dmg (190 / 100 - 1), if it was to hit with 1 shadow orb the increase is 190 / 130 - 1 = 46.15%, the gain over a MB2 is 18.75% (190 / 160 - 1), there's no increase over a MB3, obviously. Let's call this Mind Blast bonus (MBb), so we have:
MB0b = 90%
MB1b = 46.15%
MB2b = 18.75%
MB3b = 0%
Now we need to know how the total number of MBs is split between MB0, MB1, MB2 and MB3.
I could calculate the expected number of orbs by multiplying the proc rate (18%) by the number of events that proc shadow orbs (MF and SW:P ticks) over the MB interval and then use a Poisson probability distribution table to get the MB distribution, but I'd need to make some correction to account for game mechanics that would add unneeded complexity to the model. Instead, I'll use simulation data.
From simulationcraft.org T12H patchwerk:
MB0 = 6.0
MB1 = 12.2
MB2 = 14.2
MB3 = 18.3
This is the average number of MBs over a 450s fight, the total number was 50.7 MBs, let's call this Mind Blast frequency (MBf), so:
MB0f = 6.0 / 50.7 = 11.83%
MB1f = 12.2 / 50.7 = 24.06%
MB2f = 14.2 / 50.7 = 28.01%
MB3f = 18.3 / 50.7 = 36.09%
The average damage bonus is the sum of the products of each MBbonus multiplied by its frequency.
The expected damage bonus of the T13 proc is:
(90% * 11.83%) + (46.15% * 24.06%) + (18.75% * 28.01%) + (0% * 36.09%) = 27.00%
Now we need the proc rate. Using the data from the simulation we have the shadowy apparition interval as 14.97s and the MB interval as 8.88s, therefore we have an expected value of 0,593 apparitions per MB cast. Using a Poisson calculator we get a proc rate of 44.73%.
Now we need to add the shadow fiend contribution to the proc. The shadow fiend will give 3 guaranteed MB3 every 91.19s or 10,27 MBs, equivalent to a proc rate of 29.21%, since 44.73% of these would be wasted we get a total proc rate of 44.73% + (29.21% * (1 - 44.73%) = 60.87%
The DPS gain of the T13 4pc bonus is (60.87% * 27.00%) = 16.43% of the MB DPS, while the T12 4pc gives 25% of the MB DPS as bonus.
This was calculated for a no movement single target fight, but the point still stands even if you increase mastery or movement in this model and it gets even worse if you increase orb generation via haste or multiple SW:P.
If you add another target to dot during the fight you get this MB frequency:
MB0f = 7.59%
MB1f = 16.93%
MB2f = 24.71%
MB3f = 50.78%
In this case even if you assume the T13 to proc for every MB you'd still get a worse bonus than T12.
Elegant fix on our 2pc bonus that makes a lot more sense, i bet they just totally forgot about masochism when they first introduced the bonuses
The opening was never a big deal even with a bad NRG it was barely affecting your overall perfomance in a long fight.
Opening with shadowfiend would now make more sense yeah but using BL in the beginning is totally based in the encounter mechanics rather one's personal ego.
Yeah i believe that too, it's obvious they want to fit SW: D in our rotation and will probably end up with a use-on-cooldown SW: D
Last edited by Keosen; 2011-09-30 at 06:32 AM.
Good math Taradenha - the only thing I would add is to remember that the Tier 12 bonus scales MB up 25% independently of Shadow Orbs, while this bonus Overwrites the effect of existing Shadow Orb procs - so even while having 3 orbs nearly all the time is a 16.43% increase to current MB damage - the benefit is likely worse than that because you may need to subtract the benefit of existing orb procs. I'm may have missed you work that in somewhere? Even if that's the case we're still talking about this bonus being half as valuable as the existing 4pc - that's a pretty significant difference.
Having had some days to think about it - I think the way I would fix the 4pc is like this.
"Your Shadowfiend attacks cause you to generate 3 Shadow Orbs per attack, and your Shadow Apparitions reduce the cooldown of your Mind Blast by 3 seconds when they spawn."
This means we still have direct control over Orb generation at the start of the fight by popping out Shadowfiend, but we also have a mechanic that has a direct increase on dps and isn't bugged out by Appariations being unable to path properly. The 3 seconds reduction can also be fine-tuned to increase dps appropriately to 4pc bonus. Maybe 1.5-2 seconds is all that's needed, or maybe it needs to completely reset the MB cooldown - but now at least we both retain the utility of having controllable orb procs at the start of the fight, and have a set bonus that isn't overwriting an existing class mechanic for a marginal dps benefit.
Why would you spam mind spike? That's not a dps boost on a boss fight.
Where do the 95% damage reduction come from? Something I missed?
This is quite true, even worse if it only generates the 3 orbs if the apparitions hit the target (what if something prevents the image reaching boss?). Although they do sound great it will require some ingame testing to see how they perform: 2-set seems " okish" as there are fights with multiple adds. Though the damage reduction component should had been baked in a talent, or something extra added to make it useful above 25% on fights with no adds. 4-set can be powerful with sfiend proccing 3 orbs, but the time its up is alot lower without the 2 set of t12. Not to mention mblast still has a cd so the max you can get out of it are mostlly 3. S apparitions 's procs is still quite low when stationary, and when on the move by the time it reaches its target you might have generated an orb already. If they added a slightly extra bonus to its procrate it would be nice.
They should have added some bonuses in our talents and elevate some QoL issues through basic core changes, not put them in the set bonuses...Thats what my grip is atm.
They should:
- Bonus seems fine, the damage reduct component pushed to 99% , ignore absorbs, and baked into talent. Have the twoset bonus also grant a boost or bonus when you use it above 25%
-4 set bonus, having sfiends attack generate orb should be baked into talent, elevates rng proc. Have mastery influence orb generation through our flay/sp or through apparitions, again talented.
Although they are bonuses, they also include QoL fixes which should be in talents..
Last edited by Cookiematico; 2011-09-30 at 11:06 AM.
Yeah as it seems http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/...t-Bonuses-9-29
Oh yes, what I meant before about the damage buffs and the normal SW: D, was that if we have encounters like Halfus where we get a damage buff, then a SW: D without the 2-set bonus to reduce damage taken from it, might kill you.
Of course I calculated the chance of having 0, 1, 2 or 3 orbs, calculating these chances is a basic premise of the model.The T12 bonus is pretty easy to calculate, it's a 25% bonus applied after all other calculations and does not depends on your mastery nor shadow orbs nor other procs and it's up all the time (assuming you don't let it fall, which is a reasonable assumption in a patchwerk fight).
MB0f = 6.0 / 50.7 = 11.83%
MB1f = 12.2 / 50.7 = 24.06%
MB2f = 14.2 / 50.7 = 28.01%
MB3f = 18.3 / 50.7 = 36.09%
These are the chances of casting MB with 0, 1, 2 and 3 orbs respectively in a single target fight.
For a fight with 2 targets we have these numbers:
MB0f = 7.59%
MB1f = 16.93%
MB2f = 24.71%
MB3f = 50.78%
The more targets you add the more the distribution is skewed towards 3 orbs, meaning that the T13 4pc bonus only gets worse on multitarget fights, on the other hand the more movement you add the better the T13 becomes, my point is that even if you add enough movement to proc the bonus close to 100% of the time the T13 bonus would still be worse than T12.
Taradenha, I noticed that you picked an arbitrary 30% when you're also using stats from the current T12H BiS profile. Why not use the actual value of Mastery to compute damage done? For the BiS profile provided by SimulationCraft, they are at 14.9110 mastery rating (1239 mastery points). This works out to an extra 33.2210% damage per orb, rather than 30%.
Redoing your formulas:
MB0b = ((100+33.2210*3)/100) - 1 = 99.66%
MB1b = ((100+(33.2210*3))/(100+33.2210)) - 1 = 49.87%
MB2b = ((100+(33.2210*3))/(100+33.2210*2)) - 1 = 20.00%%
MB3b = 0%
Therefore:
(99.66% * 11.83%) + (49.87% * 24.06%) + (20.00% * 28.01%) + (0% * 36.09%) = 29.39%
Therefore:
(60.87% * 29.39%) = 17.89% damage increase, compared to 25% from the 4p T12.
This is a difference of 1.46% from your original calculations.
From my own tinkering around, the breakpoint where the 4p T13 bonus is even/better than the 4p T12 bonus is around 3366 Mastery Points / 26.7751 Mastery Rating. Again, this is with the numbers you provided in your original post, Tarahenha. To put it in perspective, if the current ratio breakdown (without 4p T13) of mind blasts with 0/1/2/3 orbs were to stay the same, here's a table with the % proc rates (currently 60.87%) and how much Mastery you'd need to make it on par with 4P T12:
I'd like to also point out that once we lose our 2p T12, the rate at which we get Shadowfiends to spawn will drop considerably, so the current 60.87% figure could be considered too high for current gearing levels.Code:Proc% Points Rating 60.87% 3366 26.7751 65.00% 2869 24.0029 70.00% 2358 21.1526 75.00% 1928 18.7541 80.00% 1561 16.7071 85.00% 1245 14.9444
Last edited by Twintop; 2011-09-30 at 07:42 PM.
Twintop
I used 30% because it was a round number near my own level of mastery and I was doing some quick math just to prove that the bonus was actually worse than the previous one, but you're right, I should have changed to the correct value once I built the complete model.
The ratio breakdown for MB varies with haste, but very slowly. To illustrate my point:
With an expected value of 2.2 orbs per MB interval we have:
MB0 = 11.08%
MB1 = 24.38%
MB2 = 26.81%
MB3 = 37.73%
If we increase the expected value to 2.4 (each MF or SW:P tick increases the expected value by 0.18):
MB0 = 9.07%
MB1 = 21.77%
MB2 = 26.13%
MB3 = 43.03%
I think simcraft doesn't model the shadow fiend cd reduction correctly. I read about it somewhere and my napkin math seems to confirm it, the ~92s interval seems to fit a 4min cd, I may have messed up, tho.
These values would give:
For this:Code:Proc% Points Rating 60.87% 3617 28.1752 65.00% 3092 25.2468 70.00% 2556 22.2570 75.00% 2105 19.7414 80.00% 1722 17.6051 85.00% 1391 15.7588
This makes complete sense, since the more haste you have, the more SFs get cast and the more SAs spawn, giving you a higher average # of orbs before the 4p bonus comes in to effect, making the bonus's value drop like a stone. This would have made an awesome T11 4p bonus.Code:Proc% Points Rating 60.87% 4875 35.1921 85.00% 2138 19.9255 100.00% 1217 14.7883
I can verify that SimulationCraft does model the CD reduction to Shadowfiend -- that's what I used to get a PP value of the 2p T12 bonus.
so we should expect as change in our 4pc hopefully soon enough.
You're only considering the bonus dmg we get casting MB. You should also consider the fact that it will be almost impossible that our ES drops, so we will almost always get our dots buffed and we'll get a higher dps from that too. I don't know if that would be a negligible number, though. Any maths?
Love both bonuses. A way to make Orbs more dependable at the start of a fight is wonderful. I always hated falling behind on dps while waiting for the RNG gods to grant me an orb.
They havent made any major changes to it yet thank god.
Do gnomes have a vibrate setting?