Armory Stats - Battleground Win Ratios, Battleground Queue Times, Blue Tweets, DLC

World First Hardcore Torment 6 Malthael Kill, Level 70 Builds For All Classes: Part 3, Curse Weekly Roundup

Armory Stats - Battleground Win Ratios
Today we are taking a look at the win percentage for each faction and battleground that took place in the last month. To find these numbers, we compared the number of battles and victories a character had in a February snapshot of data to a March snapshot of data.

These numbers come from a character's statistics pane, so any bugs with character statistics will have skewed the results. This means that there isn't any way for us to verify how accurate these numbers are, so do not take them as fact.

Percentages came fairly close to 100% in most cases, so we normalized the data to 100%. Unfortunately it seems that most Eye of the Storm wins are still not recorded in your statistics most of the time. This bug has been around for five or more years now, but we normalized the data we had (~7.5% and ~9.7% win ratios for each faction) for the chart.

The data used today is a sample made up of ~8.6 million level 90 characters and ~10 million battles. The sample is slightly biased, as players who are not in a guild are less likely to appear in our sample.

You can see the data from the last time we did this back in January.

The major change to note this time is the increase of Horde wins Alterac Valley. You may recall that Patch 5.4.7 changed some things around the Horde base.

  • December 2013 to January 2014 - Horde won 21.8% of Alterac Valley games.
  • January to February 2014 - Horde won 20.6% of Alterac Valley games.
  • February to March 2014 - Horde won 27% of Alterac Valley games.
  • February to March 2014 - ~10% of players took part in at least 1 Alterac Valley game.

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Battleground Queue Times
Holinka also shared something interesting about blacklisting recently, mentioning that the majority of people aren't using the blacklist function.



Blue Tweets
Originally Posted by Blizzard Entertainment
PvP
I really want to play and gear my Horde alt, but every time I see a 17 min random BG queue I die a little inside. Any plans to fix?
Yes we have some things we're working on. More to come soon. (holinka)

"what would it take for Horde PvP players to switch to Alliance?" having faction change be FREE would be a mandatory start.
We certainly agree that removing that barrier in certain cases would help. (holinka)

Should give low level battle ground queues satchels of armor (and maybe gold) like dungeons
That's the plan for warlords because @nite_moogle is awesome (holinka)

Hey - I wrote you something for lazy friday afternoon reading. http://t.co/FUdgZPA7N9
cool, I'll give it a read when I find some time. (holinka)
thanks for putting a lot of effort into the article. (holinka)
My primary critique is the fixation on mathematical balance, at the expense of anything else, including the very soul of a game. This is a dangerous and common mistake that often sacrifices a game's flavor to balance a spreadsheet. Our primary concern is long queue times. We should strive to solve the problem & preserve what makes WoW unique and special. (holinka)
I am not suggesting that you try not to fix it, but rather that by choosing factions, you implicitly accept some imbalance.
Absolutely. It is a tradeoff every game has to make and there is a wide spectrum of implementations as a result. (holinka)
Compare Call of Duty (which values short queues and visible balancing) to Titanfall (which wants more narrative in MP) (holinka)

Classes
quick question, do best players often play at a level above or below the "cap" you designed them with? meaning that does players often find better rotations than the optimal rotation you had in mind when designing?
Not often, but it has happened occasionally. Scorchweaving, Masterfrost, and Festerblight are the 3 cases I can think of...-- (Celestalon)
Why did you accept DW masterfrost but kill scorchweav? Curious re thought process. B/c 2H frost exists as altern?
2H Frost existing as an alternate helps. As does it being a complication to the rotation, rather than trivializer. (Celestalon)

You (Bliz) think changing the game keeps it "fresh". Players outside the elite find it tiresome.
Change just for the sake of change is a mistake and a trap. We only act if confident we're making a real improvement. (WatcherDev)

Professions
Why is there a system for Mining/Herbalism/Blacksmithing to fast-level in MoP but not the other professions?
It was something we started small with, to try out. We're considering doing more of that in the future. (Celestalon)

Pets and Pet Battles
Pet cap staying at 25 for new expansion? would love to have Epic quality pets!
Cap staying at L25, didn't want you to have to level all of your old pets, lots of new pets to level and new trainer challenges (Muffinus)

Character / Items
Any updates for Toybox regarding items with charges and pure fun trinkets?
Investigating how we can split these up so that the fun effect is in your toybox, may not be possible for everything. (Muffinus)

Warlords of Draenor Flying
Sounds like developers already made up their minds not alowing flying the entire wod expansion.
If that were the case, we'd say so. Our plan is no Draenor flying in 6.0 and player feedback is important to us. (WatcherDev)

PvE
Are you happy with how Mists of Pandaria panned out?
Overall, yes, especially from a raiding POV. There are of course regrets and lessons learned, though. (WatcherDev)
Within your realm of responsibility, what do you regard as your biggest success in Mists of Pandaria?
Flexible raiding. (WatcherDev)

Misc
You seem like the nerdiest Blizzard employee. Either you or Kosak, I cant decide. Hes a lore nerd and you're a numbers nerd.
There are some REALLY nerdy people at Blizzard. (Celestalon)
(Which is awesome, BTW. We love to geek out about all manner of nerdy topics.) (Celestalon)

Dark Legacy Comics - #434
DLC #434 has been released.

This article was originally published in forum thread: Armory Stats - Battleground Win Ratios, Battleground Queue Times, Blue Tweets, DLC started by chaud View original post
Published on 2014-03-30 10:53 PM
91 Comments
Comments 90 Comments
  1. Noix's Avatar
    FC is biggest leading issue IMO, but i think thats might be due to over pop of horde vs alliance. not only that, but looking at the stats above, seems like you trade off wins for faster que also. i guess you can say its a win win at times.
  1. Vexacus's Avatar
    funny to see that alliance has a clear advantage in the 40 man BG's and get owned when it requires an IQ above 80
  1. mmocb2e2ec3a11's Avatar
    Yeah it is quite interesting to see the stats come out like that, i guess the alliance have a more "hive mind" approach? Damn...We horde spec op squads...taking down those BGs...Haha sort of impressed at the turnout though i do sorta miss AV at times but each time i try it i only find reasons to black list it...
  1. Shudder's Avatar
    Here come the graphs again. I'm looking forward to 8 more months of them.
  1. Belize's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Vexacus View Post
    funny to see that alliance has a clear advantage in the 40 man BG's and get owned when it requires an IQ above 80
    I wouldn't call stuff like Warsong Gulch and SotA intellectually challenging.
  1. mmocb2e2ec3a11's Avatar
    I wonder if Alliance win rates in the 40 man BG's are so much greater because most Horde players have gotten tired of them and thus the 40 man raids are left comprising mainly of bots!
  1. Krazzorx's Avatar
    While 80%+ don't blacklist BGs, those who likely do are the better players for a wide range of reasons.

    With AV and IOC the perception Alliance always wins can be transformed into reality as eventually all the good Horde players blacklist them and those 2 BGs are what all good Alliance players queue for.
  1. Bullettime's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Vexacus View Post
    funny to see that alliance has a clear advantage in the 40 man BG's and get owned when it requires an IQ above 80
    Horde bots are centralized in IoC and AV due to many Horde blacklisting them, while Alliance bots are spread more evenly among the 10 and 15 man battlegrounds.
  1. diaskeaus's Avatar
    The same people play both Horde and Alliance. While it's true that certain battlegroups have better coordinated faction players, in general the numbers should be somewhat level. The fact that the stats show this not to be the case is an overwhelming show of bias. Why do the Alliance have such heavy wins in those particular BGs, and why do the Horde have a consistent stream of wins in every other BG? Is it just because the Horde are better PvPers? If I play Alliance and suddenly switch over to Horde, does that make me a better player suddenly? Or if I'm playing Horde and switch over the Alliance, am I suddenly worse?

    What's. Going. On. I'm willing to accept that on a certain psychological level, it feels better to kill another player when you are actually playing a traditional fantasy monster, and that it feels better to band up together to kill a big baddie (like AV) when you are playing a heroic human knight. But I can't believe that is all that is going on.
  1. Krazzorx's Avatar
    I'm intrigued with what they can do to fix BG queue times and balance. Other than the obvious answer of cross faction BGs they wouldn't do for other reasons (disagree or not, they aren't doing it now), can't think of one.

    Free faction change probably would just make it worse.
  1. Bullettime's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by diaskeaus View Post
    The same people play both Horde and Alliance. While it's true that certain battlegroups have better coordinated faction players, in general the numbers should be somewhat level. The fact that the stats show this not to be the case is an overwhelming show of bias. Why do the Alliance have such heavy wins in those particular BGs, and why do the Horde have a consistent stream of wins in every other BG? Is it just because the Horde are better PvPers? If I play Alliance and suddenly switch over to Horde, does that make me a better player suddenly? Or if I'm playing Horde and switch over the Alliance, am I suddenly worse?

    What's. Going. On. I'm willing to accept that on a certain psychological level, it feels better to kill another player when you are actually playing a traditional fantasy monster, and that it feels better to band up together to kill a big baddie (like AV) when you are playing a heroic human knight. But I can't believe that is all that is going on.
    No. It's more to do with how rampant botting impacts the different factions. Horde have been blacklisting IoC and AV for other reasons aside from win rate (they're not fun) which leads to a higher concentration of Horde bots being put there due to the obviously shorter queue. Horde queue times aren't bad if you remove IoC and AV from your blacklist.

    Meanwhile, Alliance bots have a much more even spread. If you queue specifically for AV or IoC as Alliance, you have a bit lengthier queue time much like the Horde has for random BGs but our bots are spread much more evenly among the battlegrounds, especially the 10 and 15m which there are more of and thus can't just be blacklisted out.

    Botting is hands down the biggest problem for Alliance PvP. It's gone from being a nuisance into being an outright epidemic.
  1. diaskeaus's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Bullettime View Post
    Horde bots are centralized in IoC and AV due to many Horde blacklisting them, while Alliance bots are spread more evenly among the 10 and 15 man battlegrounds.
    Interesting... I didn't realize it was so easy to bot in PvP. How do you spot a BG bot? (So I know where to stack my kills.)
  1. Bullettime's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by diaskeaus View Post
    Interesting... I didn't realize it was so easy to bot in PvP. How do you spot a BG bot? (So I know where to stack my kills.)
    Repeatable and predictable actions being the main thing. Less sophisticated bots will spend games running circles around the outside of the BG while more sophisticated ones will actually fight enemy players, but have predictable attack patterns and will generally run to the same location constantly during the game. You'll see a bot solo attacking Blood Elf tower constantly in EOTS for example.
  1. subanark's Avatar
    Alliance has a map advantage in AV (easier to take towers, less choke points near horde base) and IoC (glaives can attack door with good defendable position). This is compounded by the learning curve in these battle grounds that can cause new players to not know what to do. Horde for that reason focus on the other BGs, and with Strand all it takes is a few people who know what they are doing to really take over that BG.
  1. ProfessorTjc's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Vexacus View Post
    funny to see that alliance has a clear advantage in the 40 man BG's and get owned when it requires an IQ above 80
    If anything Alterac Valley and Isle of Conquest require more skill then Warsong Gultch, Strand of the Ancients and Temple of Kotmogu.
  1. Kaleredar's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by subanark View Post
    Alliance has a map advantage in AV (easier to take towers, less choke points near horde base) and IoC (glaives can attack door with good defendable position).
    Those "map imbalances" aren't even remote factors in 99% of matches. They're not the reason why horde lose and ally win a majority of the time in said BGs; the horde have fundamentally flawed strategies in them.
  1. mmoc994dcc48c2's Avatar
    Here we go again, now people will start to whine on how Alliance wins AV and IoC all the time... while ignoring that the percents are skewed for the other side, especially in Strands of the Ancients.

    Just for the record, I did a percent of wins across all battlegrounds, Alliance win 48.05% of all battlegrounds, Horde win the rest. So, if you "fixed" AV and IoC without fixing the problem on the other end as well, you'd just ensure the percent goes in favor of the Horde. And after the Alliance would start to lose those 2 bgs they mostly win as well, they'd just stop playing bgs after a while since it's not fun losing too much across all battlegrounds. And then your queue times would skyrocket to the skies, and your experiences would drop as you'd just fight bots (which, funny enough, isn't entirely different of the current PvP situation already)
  1. aeuhe4yxzhds's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by diaskeaus View Post
    Interesting... I didn't realize it was so easy to bot in PvP. How do you spot a BG bot? (So I know where to stack my kills.)
    In AV horde bots will stand just outside Vanndar Stormpike waiting, or go as a train in to the bunkers. It is hilarious to see the first few times
  1. MrExcelion's Avatar
    I wouldn't mind seeing what the average ilvl of Alliance vs Horde in BGs is, if that was possible. I'd think there'd be a widening gap since you need to win for Conquest, and better gear directly increases your chances of winning, which results in more Conquest. The gap might be not be huge but it'd be cool to see it quantified.

    One thing that definitely couldn't be quantified is how long queue times impact a player's desire to win. If you have to wait 8-15 mins as opposed to an instant queue, you might be apt to take it more seriously, or at least not AFK out at the first sign of falling behind (which I see quite a lot of).

    Lastly, another unquantifiable thing - which side has more botters? I'd think the honor botters would be located more on the side with instant queues. Winning isn't the goal, just grinding out those games with their bot. If there's much more on Alliance, I presume that's the primary culprit behind the win gap because that'll hurt the team more than anything

    So is it mostly better gear, the impact of queue times, or more botting. I suspect it's botting, but all 3 factors play into it for sure.

    IMO, if there's going to be just one PVP currency in WoD it'll all work out better

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullettime View Post
    No. It's more to do with how rampant botting impacts the different factions. Horde have been blacklisting IoC and AV for other reasons aside from win rate (they're not fun) which leads to a higher concentration of Horde bots being put there due to the obviously shorter queue. Horde queue times aren't bad if you remove IoC and AV from your blacklist.

    Meanwhile, Alliance bots have a much more even spread. If you queue specifically for AV or IoC as Alliance, you have a bit lengthier queue time much like the Horde has for random BGs but our bots are spread much more evenly among the battlegrounds, especially the 10 and 15m which there are more of and thus can't just be blacklisted out.

    Botting is hands down the biggest problem for Alliance PvP. It's gone from being a nuisance into being an outright epidemic.

    Yeah, I suspected this was the core of the problem. Botters ftl.
  1. mmoc8e13fe598c's Avatar
    Some of these bot's are very sophisticated. Most of the time they going around together, some times's there is like 20ish in the big bg's perhaps more.
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