Noblegarden, WoW Token Prices, Conquest Catch-Up Cap, Blue Posts, Environment Art

The token price is developing exactly as I predicted before it went live. In the beginning there will be a small increase in price because of the few hyped people with lots of ingame gold to spare who thought the price would SKYROCKET. So they all bought 1 or 2 years worth of tokens in the first few hours which led to the price increase. Now all those plebs have their tokens and the market is ready for the normal demand, which is WAY smaller at 30k/token then in the first few hours. The token price will continue to drop until it reaches a point of 15-20k / each.

Many people here have overestimated how many people actually have a lot of gold ingame, which are really just very few. Even if you're in a raiding guild with 30 people and everyone has 500k gold. You need to understand that that's like 30 people in a server population of 15000. And those 30 people all only need 1 token each month. There are WAY more casuals who buy those tokens for real money than people here can imagine.

I'm satisfied tho that by not being able to make an educated guess many people have bought years worth of tokens overpriced.

edit: I'm only laughing at those with thousands of gold who thought they were smart when buying bulks of tokens in the very beginning. Shows you don't actually have to be smart or understand basic economics to be rich in wow.

Hell yeah! Cheaper tokens for all! Except for the people who use actual money to buy those tokens for us /sadface!

Originally Posted by ZwuckeL

The token price is developing exactly as I predicted before it went live. In the beginning there will be a small increase in price because of the few hyped people with lots of ingame gold to spare who thought the price would SKYROCKET. So they all bought 1 or 2 years worth of tokens in the first few hours which led to the price increase. Now all those plebs have their tokens and the market is ready for the normal demand, which is WAY smaller at 30k/token then in the first few hours. The token price will continue to drop until it reaches a point of 15-20k / each.

Many people here have overestimated how many people actually have a lot of gold ingame, which are really just very few. Even if you're in a raiding guild with 30 people and everyone has 500k gold. You need to understand that that's like 30 people in a server population of 15000. And those 30 people all only need 1 token each month. There are WAY more casuals who buy those tokens for real money than people here can imagine.

I'm satisfied tho that by not being able to make an educated guess many people have bought years worth of tokens overpriced.

edit: I'm only laughing at those with thousands of gold who thought they were smart when buying bulks of tokens in the very beginning. Shows you don't actually have to be smart or understand basic economics to be rich in wow.

+1 saw yesterday "skyrocketing" posts and laugh for a bit

Originally Posted by ZwuckeL

So they all bought 1 or 2 years worth of tokens in the first few hours which led to the price increase.
[..]
edit: I'm only laughing at those with thousands of gold who thought they were smart when buying bulks of tokens in the very beginning. Shows you don't actually have to be smart or understand basic economics to be rich in wow.

You can just buy 10 in a month, wouldn't call that "buying bulks". It has nothing to do with being rich in WoW. If someone actually bought 10 of them just in one go then obviously that person can afford to buy 10 times the amount she just did. The fluctuation in its price is so low for them that this 5-10k drop is just nothing and at that stage of the game can be obtained by spending exactly 1h in AH. Well predicted.

Originally Posted by razorsharp

You can just buy 10 in a month, wouldn't call that "buying bulks". It has nothing to do with being rich in WoW. If someone actually bought 10 of them just in one go then obviously that person can afford to buy 10 times the amount she just did. The fluctuation in its price is so low for them that this 5-10k drop is just nothing and at that stage of the game can be obtained by spending exactly 1h in AH. Well predicted.

That "10 a month"-regulation is only applicable for the real money side. You can buy as many tokens with gold as you want to.
So say there are some of the "skyrocket-sayers" who bought 20 tokens for 30k each. That's 600k gold. In a few days when tokens cost 15k each they'll acutally be at a deficit of 300k which just went "in the trash". Hell, for many 300k is not a lot. That doesn't change the fact they could have saved those 300k by making a better guess.

In other words. I feel good for the casuals who outsmarted the "self-proclaimed smart" by selling the tokens early. The casuals made a good profit (as in: got good gold for their 20$), when at the same time the gold-buyers thought they were smart for buying early. Warms my heart

I'm from Europe so I like to watch what happens to the token price, probably same thing will happen over here when it eventually gets released.

Still a bit too early to tell what will happen. Prices might climb up once people wake up. I'm somewhat glad to see the price drop, makes it a bit easier for the more "casual" players to obtain them if they choose to. 30k might not seem like a lot to many of you, but it is quite a bit for the average player. When you think about heirloom upgrades, raiding, buying equipment and what not, the costs do add up. This is especially true since most people don't really like to spend hours at the auction house playing that game. But like I said, it's a wee bit too early to see how things turn out. It'll be more "exact" in a few months when things finally settle down.

I'd be surprised to see them drop below 20k however, that's seems like a long shot, but you could be right. Even if they only sell for 15k they are guaranteed 30k right? - At least for the moment until blizzard changes the system and allows players to set the prices. Not looking good for those guys that expected to get 60k for a token, lol.

I'm not lacking the real-world cash, but I'm just not sure what 25k gold would buy me that I really want. Isn't that worth like... one BoE epic? Maybe?

It'll be interesting to see what the price settles at once the initial novelty wears off.

I would also be really interested in seeing the volume bought/sold at different prices, since they won't match up the way they set it up

Originally Posted by ZwuckeL

The token price is developing exactly as I predicted before it went live. In the beginning there will be a small increase in price because of the few hyped people with lots of ingame gold to spare who thought the price would SKYROCKET. So they all bought 1 or 2 years worth of tokens in the first few hours which led to the price increase. Now all those plebs have their tokens and the market is ready for the normal demand, which is WAY smaller at 30k/token then in the first few hours. The token price will continue to drop until it reaches a point of 15-20k / each.

Many people here have overestimated how many people actually have a lot of gold ingame, which are really just very few. Even if you're in a raiding guild with 30 people and everyone has 500k gold. You need to understand that that's like 30 people in a server population of 15000. And those 30 people all only need 1 token each month. There are WAY more casuals who buy those tokens for real money than people here can imagine.

I'm satisfied tho that by not being able to make an educated guess many people have bought years worth of tokens overpriced.

edit: I'm only laughing at those with thousands of gold who thought they were smart when buying bulks of tokens in the very beginning. Shows you don't actually have to be smart or understand basic economics to be rich in wow.

So funny, The gold they lost, could have covered 2 months worth of subs. Personally waiting for the market to settle before buying my year.

Originally Posted by ZwuckeL

That "10 a month"-regulation is only applicable for the real money side. You can buy as many tokens with gold as you want to.
So say there are some of the "skyrocket-sayers" who bought 20 tokens for 30k each. That's 600k gold. In a few days when tokens cost 15k each they'll acutally be at a deficit of 300k which just went "in the trash". Hell, for many 300k is not a lot. That doesn't change the fact they could have saved those 300k by making a better guess.

In other words. I feel good for the casuals who outsmarted the "self-proclaimed smart" by selling the tokens early. The casuals made a good profit (as in: got good gold for their 20$), when at the same time the gold-buyers thought they were smart for buying early. Warms my heart

smart people "gold" cost averaged throughout the day...although do you really think people who bought 20 really care if they paid 600k and they dropped to 300k? Even for me, someone who did not buy even close to half of 20 tokens, 600k is about 45-50 days worth of follower missions spending about 45-60 min a day flipping gold missions on 13 100's (I track this in a spreadsheet for fun...)

Originally Posted by ZwuckeL

The token price is developing exactly as I predicted before it went live. In the beginning there will be a small increase in price because of the few hyped people with lots of ingame gold to spare who thought the price would SKYROCKET. So they all bought 1 or 2 years worth of tokens in the first few hours which led to the price increase. Now all those plebs have their tokens and the market is ready for the normal demand, which is WAY smaller at 30k/token then in the first few hours. The token price will continue to drop until it reaches a point of 15-20k / each.

Many people here have overestimated how many people actually have a lot of gold ingame, which are really just very few. Even if you're in a raiding guild with 30 people and everyone has 500k gold. You need to understand that that's like 30 people in a server population of 15000. And those 30 people all only need 1 token each month. There are WAY more casuals who buy those tokens for real money than people here can imagine.

I'm satisfied tho that by not being able to make an educated guess many people have bought years worth of tokens overpriced.

edit: I'm only laughing at those with thousands of gold who thought they were smart when buying bulks of tokens in the very beginning. Shows you don't actually have to be smart or understand basic economics to be rich in wow.

You were okay until you said "plebs". Now I just want to choke your mother.

I find it baffling why anyone would want to pay $20 for only 25k gold...

Originally Posted by ZwuckeL

The token price is developing exactly as I predicted before it went live. In the beginning there will be a small increase in price because of the few hyped people with lots of ingame gold to spare who thought the price would SKYROCKET.

I have a guildie like that, he's got like 1M while actually spending it and makes 100Ks each month all the time. He was convinced it will rocket to 800K+ for the first few months because there won't be many people paying USD for tokens and all the super gold rich people will fight for these tokens. Apparently wrong.

Originally Posted by huldu

I'd be surprised to see them drop below 20k however, that's seems like a long shot, but you could be right. Even if they only sell for 15k they are guaranteed 30k right? - At least for the moment until blizzard changes the system and allows players to set the prices. Not looking good for those guys that expected to get 60k for a token, lol.

You're not guaranteed 30k, you're guaranteed to be paid whatever the market was at when you listed the token. So if the market is at 20k, and you list it while they're selling for 20k, then you'll get 20k for it even if it drops lower or goes higher in the time before your token actually sells.

Which I think is why they aren't ever going to drop super low, because its going to reach a point where people don't want to list their tokens for low prices. 15k might be nice and affordable for a casual player, but remember that hinges on someone else paying $20 for a token and agreeing to list it and only get 15k gold in return. Every token a player buys with gold, has been bought for $20 of real money by someone else, so they're not just going to throw them away for low amounts of gold. If I went to the AH to list a token and saw the market was at 15k, I certainly wouldn't be putting one up for sale.

I really want to know what all the people that said "this will sell for 100k minimum" think now.

Now that this token bubble has exploded, we should think how we bail out all thous poor wow-millionares who lost large portion of their wealth in this tragedy. I back up that we make every wow player who doesn't bought tokens to pay 10% tax from their wealth which goes directly to bail out program. After all we can't let those wow-millionares go down because AH doesn't rise up the price of the goods by itself.

I must admit, I'm surprised by the movement of the token price. Not because I overestimated how many people actually have a lot of gold ingame - I think I underestimated just how many people were willing to drop cash to get gold. I don't know what they're spending the gold on, lord knows I never found anything in-game that needed gold to be bought, but I guess some people are willing to drop five bucks here and five bucks there to buy vanity mounts and stuff?

wtf UNDER 25k? i just hope this price will be here in EU the same. I want to buy 5 years (up from 4^^) of gametime
please Blizzard. Dont take to long for this

I dunno, first post made me laugh a little. Those with the gold to spend on the tokens bought in as early as possible because of anticipated demand and fear it was going to go up like in most every MMO that's implemented this - you want to be on the ground floor. The throttle was at 10 tokens per person, which at 30k was 300k per gold seller. As someone with millions laying around, this was hardly a dent, and there are many of us today. The adjustment, at this point 5k per token, is not that big a hit, it's 50k total. Personally, I look at 50k like the majority of players look at 5k. Just economies of scale. Sort of like when Tiger Woods wrecks a $50k automobile, I can go win one match and replace that 100 times over, so it's not a big deal to me. If you have the actual talent for making gold, you can always replace it, whereas most normal people would scream about losing it. I know I lost half a million in the lead up to the release of BRF speculating in one market, I replaced that loss 7x over so far.

The tokens will eventually grow in value, right now because of throttles on purchases they are going to be artificial lows. But once everyone who actually has the gold has all the gametime they can stand, we will run out of need for the gametime, unless the game will be around for the next 20 years. That means you can expect the price to rise. Over time it will solidify to a price point, and Blizz will insure this. If you're rooting for your local millionaire to fail, I assure you that you're barking up the wrong tree. Unlike you, we have the knowledge to make it all back, whereas the buyers are essentially giving all that gold back to us. Don't worry, your overlords won't look badly on you for hating us, we are the ones in charge of this, and we have it under control.

Originally Posted by Idletime

I dunno, first post made me laugh a little. Those with the gold to spend on the tokens bought in as early as possible because of anticipated demand and fear it was going to go up like in most every MMO that's implemented this - you want to be on the ground floor. The throttle was at 10 tokens per person, which at 30k was 300k per gold seller. As someone with millions laying around, this was hardly a dent, and there are many of us today. The adjustment, at this point 5k per token, is not that big a hit, it's 50k total. Personally, I look at 50k like the majority of players look at 5k. Just economies of scale. Sort of like when Tiger Woods wrecks a $50k automobile, I can go win one match and replace that 100 times over, so it's not a big deal to me. If you have the actual talent for making gold, you can always replace it, whereas most normal people would scream about losing it. I know I lost half a million in the lead up to the release of BRF speculating in one market, I replaced that loss 7x over so far.

The tokens will eventually grow in value, right now because of throttles on purchases they are going to be artificial lows. But once everyone who actually has the gold has all the gametime they can stand, we will run out of need for the gametime, unless the game will be around for the next 20 years. That means you can expect the price to rise. Over time it will solidify to a price point, and Blizz will insure this. If you're rooting for your local millionaire to fail, I assure you that you're barking up the wrong tree. Unlike you, we have the knowledge to make it all back, whereas the buyers are essentially giving all that gold back to us. Don't worry, your overlords won't look badly on you for hating us, we are the ones in charge of this, and we have it under control.

I like how you automatically assumed I'm poor in WoW. I have millions of gold lying around myself. That doesn't mean I have to be one of the bads burning 300k when it's crystal clear that the price of the token WON'T skyrocket. You say you'd rather burn 100k then be sorry in the end. I say I understand how the token market turns out and don't have to take the risk. You gambled and failed.

Also you say the price will rise again? Your reasoning doesn't make sense at all. People like you have bought their tokens for the next X months. That means there is little to no demand for tokens at high prices (which guys like you are the only ones demanding obviously). If you think the price for a token will ever rise over 30k again you're delusional (ofc without a major gold inflation caused by a new expansion where quests give you 500 gold and greys sell for 100g).
Everyone can make millions of gold by just leveling characters/doing missions and professions. You don't have to be smart to do that. You're one of those. And then there are people who do that but additionally understand/are able to predict circumstances like the price of the wow-token.