Oh wow guys....the game will be released much later than most expected.

[Deleted]

plenty of time to reach lv90.

it will take one week as usual

[Knoxi]

Blizzard usually announces releasedates of X-Pacs 2 months before they actually are released... "before sep 20th" sounds quite realistic, then we will probably hear something from blizzard during the next 2-3 weeks.

[Deleted]

Its probably already been said, but the level 90 Brewfest gear has already been data mined. Brewfest starts September 20th; Expect it to be released just before that.

1. In my opinion Blizzard doesn't want to give away free epic trinkets, immediatly after MoP release. Remember that the necks from first Cataclysm event in Shadowfang only had blue quality. So the new Brewfest trinkets might as well be intended for next year.
2. If 1. is not true, the upgraded items only means, that the release was originally planned to be before Brewfest, when the trinket upgrade was scheduled internally - maybe at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile the release date could have been postponed.

[hulkgor]

I have to laugh reading old comments when people ACTUALLY thought MoP would be released June\July... Why would they release it with the first APs still running... that'd be 2-3 months of lost subs, considering they're already paid for - by a LOT of people.

Anyway, MoP should be released close to October.

I just expect its novelty\content lasts for more then 1 month...

[Bristae]

1. In my opinion Blizzard doesn't want to give away free epic trinkets, immediatly after MoP release. Remember that the necks from first Cataclysm event in Shadowfang only had blue quality. So the new Brewfest trinkets might as well be intended for next year.

again, IF they were for next year, where are the updated loot tables for midsummer fire festival then? curious that they chose to ONLY update two event's loot tables and it so happens to be to events that happen after each other in the late summer/early fall. once again Occum's Razor prevails.

2. If 1. is not true, the upgraded items only means, that the release was originally planned to be before Brewfest, when the trinket upgrade was scheduled internally - maybe at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile the release date could have been postponed.

Could be, or things could still be on track and a release date just hasn't been announced yet. <shrug>

[Gutengutter]

I have to laugh reading old comments when people ACTUALLY thought MoP would be released June\July... Why would they release it with the first APs still running... that'd be 2-3 months of lost subs, considering they're already paid for - by a LOT of people.

Anyway, MoP should be released close to October.

I just expect its novelty\content lasts for more then 1 month...

A little more than 10% is not a lot. Blizzard has a vested interest in releasing sooner rather than later.

[ShimmerSwirl]

It will be released in Q4, doesn't really matter which month. Reason being is that is when the first wave of annual pass subs will be finishing, and they would be taking a huge sub loss they would have to report for Q4. Releasing MoP in that quarter equalizes the AP sub loss.

If you look at Blizzard's release timing of content over the last couple years its very obvious that the goal is to inflate sub numbers just long enough each quarter so the report looks good for investors.

I'd bank on early December release to ensure that people who buy the game will still have an active 1 month sub going when the quarter ends.

[Bristae]

It will be released in Q4, doesn't really matter which month. Reason being is that is when the first wave of annual pass subs will be finishing, and they would be taking a huge sub loss they would have to report for Q4. Releasing MoP in that quarter equalizes the AP sub loss.

If you look at Blizzard's release timing of content over the last couple years its very obvious that the goal is to inflate sub numbers just long enough each quarter so the report looks good for investors.

I'd bank on early December release to ensure that people who buy the game will still have an active 1 month sub going when the quarter ends.

Part of me wants to say you are trolling and can't be serious. Are you serious? I mean seriously serious? Wait until December to release an expansion to inflate subscription numbers because the first wave of annual pass contracts will be expiring? (Oct 21st abouts actually) The new pain meds my doctor gave me are really good because I can't believe I'm reading this seriously and add the name of the poster "muchtoohigh". I think I might be "muchtoohigh" at this moment because I don't think anyone can be this off base this far in.

So all kidding aside Muchtoohigh, as it's been pointed out many times before and I'm sure you've missed, only about 10% of the user base signed up for the annual pass deal and of the 10% not all of them signed up all at once when it was announced in October but over the span of the 6 months and a handful of days it was offered up until May 1st, 2012. So really we are talking about less than 10% of the current subscriber base that has an annual pass agreement expiring on or shortly after October 21st. I'd imagine it is a majority of the the takers though but still less than all of them. So why if Blizzard is so concerned with inflating numbers for investors would they hold off releasing an expansion until an agreement with less than 10% of the subscriber based expires just to "try to still have an active 1 month sub going when the quarter ends" when they may have already have alienated the remaining 90%+ subscriber base and lost larger numbers? How does THAT make ANY sense? Maybe if I was I high it would. But in what we like to call "the real world" it doesn't. What makes more sense, is that they will release MoP before the AP agreement expires possibly offering a new annual pass agreement with new perks to extend the agreement another 6 months to a year. THAT would do more good to "inflate" the 4th quarter numbers as you say than to crap on the 90% not on the current Annual Pass agreement.

Better yet... Just let the Annual Pass agreements expire and release Mists of Pandaria before it does, let the expansion stand on it's own merits. because it will.

[themaster24]

1. In my opinion Blizzard doesn't want to give away free epic trinkets, immediatly after MoP release. Remember that the necks from first Cataclysm event in Shadowfang only had blue quality. So the new Brewfest trinkets might as well be intended for next year.

The only thing with this is that the Brewfest trinkets are ilvl 470, which is just 7 lvls above the heroic blues, and 6 lvls below raid finder. For some, there will more than likely be trinkets from the heroics that are better than the brewfest ones.

[lordjust]

1. In my opinion Blizzard doesn't want to give away free epic trinkets, immediatly after MoP release. Remember that the necks from first Cataclysm event in Shadowfang only had blue quality. So the new Brewfest trinkets might as well be intended for next year.
2. If 1. is not true, the upgraded items only means, that the release was originally planned to be before Brewfest, when the trinket upgrade was scheduled internally - maybe at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile the release date could have been postponed.

"Heroic" dungeon loot is itemlevel 463 and LFR loot is itemlevel 476 and the datamined loot for the brewfest and hallows end are itemlevel 470. They are epic quality but worse than LFR loot and you can expect that LFR will still be very easy. Also the items you can through reputation grind are itemlevel 489.

If it gets released let's say 2 weeks before brewfest (September 4th) people will already have full itemlevel 463 and some itemlevel 476 and 489 so the loot would be garbage for a lot of lvl90 players. Yes they are epic but there are so many easy ways to obtain better epics so there's no way that they are intended for next year.

Then you second guess about when they thought they will release the expansion. Beginning of the year? No. The items were updated in the patch that came around May 18th so a month after the beta started. If their first guess was at the beginning of the year they would have been updated in the very first build but they updated them after the first month after they tested the pandaren starting area and the first zone and lots of other stuff like the new UI, talent trees and even pet battles could be tested (unintentionally).

So one could assume that they saw that everything went as good as planed or better and they made a first guess that it would be released before brewfest or before hallows end (as both were updated in the same patch).

[Thelxi]

To all the people clinging on to the Brewfest datamines, there have been plenty of items datamined from events that didn't make to the game till the next year. The Easter bird for example.

[Pann]

Part of me wants to say you are trolling and can't be serious. Are you serious? I mean seriously serious? Wait until December to release an expansion to inflate subscription numbers because the first wave of annual pass contracts will be expiring? (Oct 21st abouts actually) The new pain meds my doctor gave me are really good because I can't believe I'm reading this seriously and add the name of the poster "muchtoohigh". I think I might be "muchtoohigh" at this moment because I don't think anyone can be this off base this far in.

So all kidding aside Muchtoohigh, as it's been pointed out many times before and I'm sure you've missed, only about 10% of the user base signed up for the annual pass deal and of the 10% not all of them signed up all at once when it was announced in October but over the span of the 6 months and a handful of days it was offered up until May 1st, 2012. So really we are talking about less than 10% of the current subscriber base that has an annual pass agreement expiring on or shortly after October 21st. I'd imagine it is a majority of the the takers though but still less than all of them. So why if Blizzard is so concerned with inflating numbers for investors would they hold off releasing an expansion until an agreement with less than 10% of the subscriber based expires just to "try to still have an active 1 month sub going when the quarter ends" when they may have already have alienated the remaining 90%+ subscriber base and lost larger numbers? How does THAT make ANY sense? Maybe if I was I high it would. But in what we like to call "the real world" it doesn't. What makes more sense, is that they will release MoP before the AP agreement expires possibly offering a new annual pass agreement with new perks to extend the agreement another 6 months to a year. THAT would do more good to "inflate" the 4th quarter numbers as you say than to crap on the 90% not on the current Annual Pass agreement.

Better yet... Just let the Annual Pass agreements expire and release Mists of Pandaria before it does, let the expansion stand on it's own merits. because it will.

I think you'll find that the annual pass holder numbers are closer to 20-25% of the monthly subscriber player base who have to pay for each expansion. I'm not saying the annual pass is going to be the main factor in their decision to release MOP it is going to be a factor, although I think they will try to release before the annual pass expires as pass holders will not want to have time remaining and not have access to the latest expansion.

[Deleted]

I don't think the Brewfest items etc are any indicator at all. I mean just look at the state of beta at the moment. Raid testing isn't even nearly finished yet, stuff is missing, the whole 85 - 86 zone isn't even working at the moment. Given that, even after they say "right, it's done" content wise, they still have to go through all kinds of QA and stuff, and they have to send it all off to get burnt onto discs and boxed up etc - these things take time. Anyone who thinks August is in dreamland and, to be honest, anyone who thinks September is also being very optimistic in my opinion. I would say mid October now.

[Marema]

I think you'll find that the annual pass holder numbers are closer to 20-25% of the monthly subscriber player base who have to pay for each expansion. I'm not saying the annual pass is going to be the main factor in their decision to release MOP it is going to be a factor, although I think they will try to release before the annual pass expires as pass holders will not want to have time remaining and not have access to the latest expansion.

Per last quarterly call: 12,000,000 active subs with ~1,200,000 as annual pass = 10%

[Pann]

Per last quarterly call: 12,000,000 active subs with ~1,200,000 as annual pass = 10%

Actually last quarter's sub figures were 10.1 million, however over half of these are Chinese subs who do not buy the game or expansions and they do not pay a monthly fee. The best estimates put the NA/EU sub numbers at somewhere around 4-4.5 million thus 1.2 million AP holders make up roughly 20-25% of the eligible subs.

[Bristae]

To all the people clinging on to the Brewfest datamines, there have been plenty of items datamined from events that didn't make to the game till the next year. The Easter bird for example.

/facepalm.... But the Easter bird doesn't have stats or an ilevel on it. and that wasn't THIS cycle. not to mention yet again the complete lack of UPDATED items for other events.

[themaster24]

To all the people clinging on to the Brewfest datamines, there have been plenty of items datamined from events that didn't make to the game till the next year. The Easter bird for example.

Yes, datamine /= 100% hard evidence, but your example is a lot different. Finding a new mount/pet for an event doesn't mean a whole lot. Finding gear that's always a part of an event that's brought up to the ilvl of the xpac does hold some water though. I'll admit, it's not what I use or would use as a core argument for when I think the xpac will drop. It does make for a good support though. I doubt they would go and make changes to brewfest now, specifically changing ilvl of the trinkets, if they didn't think that MoP could be released in that timeframe.

[Yoshimiko]

I think they're going to rush to put out a release pre-August 28th, just a thought.

If they release post-GW2's release, I think they'll take a (rather large) hit to subscription base. GW2 already has over 3 Million bought - has no subscription fee - and competes in the same market. I don't expect people to pick up two games around the same time - so I really expect Gw2 to swoop up a lot of subscribers from WoW.

This is nothing but speculation, but hey it's a speculative thread anyways. :P

[Amorac]

and they have to send it all off to get burnt onto discs and boxed up etc - these things take time.

Well, all the discs need is a setup program and most of the game data (models/textures/sound) to cut back on the need to download the expansion. It's not like we're getting the final version on the disc, just like the previous expansions. Wouldn't be surprised that the first thing the launcher does is update itself just before starting to stream the changed/missing data.

So, in theory, they could already have started pressing the discs. I guess the leaked box is an indication they are either already starting to package everything or very close to do so.

That doesn't mean it will be released anytime soon, but at least they seem to be prepping for it.

[Thirstblood]

i feel it would be coming out nov-ish to dec-ish. :-\