T15 BrM set bonus

[Chuupag]

Yes it is free, but the question remains imo, purifying a 1k ticking dot just cos we can is almost completely useless, when we can wait 2 melee swings and purify a 15k tick, that would be at the cost ppm unfortunatly, but i still believe that purifying at light stagger will be pointless (unless the proc is about to dissapear ofc) and that it might be worth delaying the free proc until we reach moderate stagger, or thereabout.

But we still have a regular old PB that we could spend a chi on if that does happen. It's not like we'll not be able to purify if we don't get a proc. Delaying using it would probably cost you more in the long run. If we have a light stagger, get a proc, use it, then get hit with heavy spike wouldn't that be better than light stagger...not use it...get hit with heavy spike...then die b/c the heals got caught flat footed? I'm sure such a situation wouldn't be all that common but if it's free I don't see a reason not to use it immediately.

---------- Post added 2013-01-20 at 10:44 AM ----------

The first "after" should be "before".

I notice you don't have anything to say about 9 results for 6 dice rolls.

I just don't think it had any relevance to the discussion. You are trying to compare a binary system to a 6 value system. The same arguments don't apply.

---------- Post added 2013-01-20 at 10:47 AM ----------

I don't. In view-mode you just can't see the whole spreadsheet. If you download it, you'll see that there are 61 columns (0-60, one for each possible # of proc). You can also see in the graph that I don't cap my calculations at 7.

I don't have the ability to open and view it right now, but I do notice at the bottom of you columns under the cumulative row that the number under 7 is higher than 6.

[Deleted]

You are trying to compare a binary system to a 6 value system. The same arguments don't apply.

Having a 6 or not having one is binary. How would you calculate the average number of 6 you get when you roll 6 dice ?

Having a proc or not is binary. How would you calculate the average number of procs you get when you have 60 proc occasions ?

[Deleted]

I don't have the ability to open and view it right now, but I do notice at the bottom of you columns under the cumulative row that the number under 7 is higher than 6.

Maybe to elaborate a bit:

1. The cumulative row is just the row for the cumulative distribution function (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulat...ution_function). By definition, the value under 7 will be equal to or higher than the value under 6. I could graph it as well but I like the density graph more which has exactly the same informational value.

2. The "Weighted sums"-row doesn't have any meaningful interpretation by itself. It's just an intermediate step so that I can readily calculate the average proc per minute, which is 6. To be more specific: I take the sum over the # of possible procs times their according probability of occurrence, which is the correct way of calculating the arithmetic mean in this case, since we have a discrete distribution (http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ArithmeticMean.html).

Just to be clear: I think this is purely an "just for fun" or "academic" discussion

[Chuupag]

Having a 6 or not having one is binary. How would you calculate the average number of 6 you get when you roll 6 dice ?

Having a proc or not is binary. How would you calculate the average number of procs you get when you have 60 proc occasions ?

Having a 6, or having a 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 is not binary.

Having it proc or not having it proc is binary. The counting of procs is a secondary step.

---------- Post added 2013-01-20 at 12:05 PM ----------

Maybe to elaborate a bit:

1. The cumulative row is just the row for the cumulative distribution function (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulat...ution_function). By definition, the value under 7 will be equal to or higher than the value under 6. I could graph it as well but I like the density graph more which has exactly the same informational value.

2. The "Weighted sums"-row doesn't have any meaningful interpretation by itself. It's just an intermediate step so that I can readily calculate the average proc per minute, which is 6. To be more specific: I take the sum over the # of possible procs times their according probability of occurrence, which is the correct way of calculating the arithmetic mean in this case, since we have a discrete distribution (http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ArithmeticMean.html).

Just to be clear: I think this is purely an "just for fun" or "academic" discussion

Your numbers and my numbers agree on the probabilities of the occurrence happening after X seconds. I can't get into the guts of your math right now, and I just have a very hard time believing it would be exactly 6, so forgive me for being dubious.

[Deleted]

Having a 6, or having a 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 is not binary.

Having it proc or not having it proc is binary.

You probably never had any probability homework. Don't you realize that "having a 6 or not" is like rolling a dice with "6" on one side and "d'oh" on 5 sides ? Just like having a t15 proc is rolling a 10-sided dice with "proc" on one side and "d'oh" on 9 sides ? So answer this : how do you calculate the average number of 6 (non-d'oh) you get when you roll 60 dice ?

[gynshon]

This 4p thing still bothers me. Let's say we get 6 procs per minute, and we only need to clear Stagger 6 times per minute. Level 30 talents has their Chi costs removed. WTF are we going to spend our Chi on? I already maintain 90+% shuffle on most fights, it will just become that much easier?

PTS thus far I have seen Stagger get pretty high, pretty quickly on the few fights I have tested, so maybe that is their goal in a way to lighten the PB chi load since we will be Purifying every 5 secs? If this is the case, then our class is flawed and needs serious tweaking.

Next PTS I will be logging and post them.

[Deleted]

Your numbers and my numbers agree on the probabilities of the occurrence happening after X seconds. I can't get into the guts of your math right now, and I just have a very hard time believing it would be exactly 6, so forgive me for being dubious.

No problem

[Deleted]

This 4p thing still bothers me. Let's say we get 6 procs per minute, and we only need to clear Stagger 6 times per minute. Level 30 talents has their Chi costs removed. WTF are we going to spend our Chi on? I already maintain 90+% shuffle on most fights, it will just become that much easier?

That's something I'm also wondering. To me it seems with the lvl 30 talents revamp they are dumbing it down a bit, leaving us with easier choices to be made. Same applies to mistweavers (1 chi-spender single target and 1 chi-spender AoE now). I really don't want to drop down in haste so much as to a point where I'll mass spam tiger palm.
I'm not sure why you would say our class is flawed per se because of that. As we progress into next tier, all tanks get more stats on their gear which means more resources and defensives. Maybe the plan for monks is to not start neglecting haste immediatly to avoid us from getting massive crit numbers? If I need to pump in some more stats into haste next tier to have enough chi to purify a lot, so be it, but I wouldn't call that flawed design as long as the goal is maintainable.

[Chuupag]

You probably never had any probability homework. Don't you realize that "having a 6 or not" is like rolling a dice with "6" on one side and "d'oh" on 5 sides ? Just like having a t15 proc is rolling a 10-sided dice with "proc" on one side and "d'oh" on 9 sides ? So answer this : how do you calculate the average number of 6 (non-d'oh) you get when you roll 60 dice ?

Why not just call it a 2 sided die with a weight on it that also sometimes turns into a chicken if you want to muddy the waters. This argument is fairly useless, as you're arguing the efficacy of an analogy that doesn't have anything to do with the question at hand.

[Deleted]

as you're arguing the efficacy of an analogy that doesn't have anything to do with the question at hand.

It's exactly the same calculation. Exactly the same problem. Except on one hand there is a 1/10 proc chance, on the other hand a 1/6 proc chance. Not understanding this is being like a pupil who discovers a math lesson, and after he's told how to calculate the area of a circle with 1 cm radius, he cannot calculate the area of a circle with a 2cm radius.

[imoom]

4 pages on how to calculate procs per minute.
lets drop this discussion and focus more on a bigger picture.
EVERYONE wins. Chuupags aka Magog will have his 8 or 9 procs per minute while killing normal bosses, and the rest of us mortals will be stuck with 4-6 ppm depending on proc-clicking-frenzy when we kill heroic bosses.

Stat prio
Stat caps
and how does 2 and 4 set change theese?
functionality (will we purify so often that our fingers bleed in upcomming tiers)
given reasonable ilvl increase, at what point will it be valid to switch t14 to t15.

all is not easy to answer yet, with new items not yet released, but better discussing matters as that.

TL;DR
stop throwing sand at eachother and help build a castle in this sandbox.

[Chuupag]

It's exactly the same calculation. Exactly the same problem. Except on one hand there is a 1/10 proc chance, on the other hand a 1/6 proc chance. Not understanding this is being like a pupil who discovers a math lesson, and after he's told how to calculate the area of a circle with 1 cm radius, he cannot calculate the area of a circle with a 2cm radius.

You weren't totaling your calculations to provide a 6 or not 6 system. You were totaling 6 different outcomes.

So when you roll 6 dice, on average you have 1.5 six, 1.5 five, 1.5 four, 1.5 three, 1.5 two and 1.5 one, for a total of 9 results on your 6 dice.

---------- Post added 2013-01-20 at 02:15 PM ----------

EVERYONE wins. Chuupags aka Magog will have his 8 or 9 procs per minute while killing normal bosses, and the rest of us mortals will be stuck with 4-6 ppm depending on proc-clicking-frenzy when we kill heroic bosses.

This isn't constructive, and is more sand throwing that you are later admonishing. It's easy to armory me and point when you don't have your own toon in your sig.

[The Madgod]

EVERYONE wins. Chuupags aka Magog will have his 8 or 9 procs per minute while killing normal bosses, and the rest of us mortals will be stuck with 4-6 ppm depending on proc-clicking-frenzy when we kill heroic bosses.

I already infracted someone for bashing someone's credibility. I will do it again. Keep the topic on the math.

[imoom]

@Madgod, yes perhaps i was bit harsh, my general point remains. this thread is about discussing the set bonuses, not really arguing how to do math properly, and I tried to steer the conversation into more proper topics by saying "everyone wins"..

@chuupag: I said my character earlier, but i can give you a link if that feels better:
http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/characte...opalm/advanced

OT:
Here is my simulation code,

p = 10; %in percent
n = 10^6;
fight_length = 300;
ICD = 2;
procs = zeros(1,n);
real_procs = zeros(1,n);
occurance = zeros(fight_length,n);

for i=1:n
procs(i) = 0;
minute = randi([1 100],1,fight_length);
for j=1:fight_length
if minute(j)<=p
procs(i)=procs(i)+1;
occurance(j,i)=1;
end
end
end

for i =1:n
for j =1:fight_length
if occurance(j,i)==1
real_procs(i)=real_procs(i)+1;
if ICD>0
for k=1:ICD
if j+k<=fight_length
occurance(j+k,i)=-1;
end
end
end
end

end
end
mean_procs = mean(procs)/fight_length*60
mean_realprocs = mean(real_procs)/fight_length*60

which gives the results: (a little varied since its a simulation after all)
mean_procs = 6.0
mean_realprocs = 5.0 when a internal cooldown (as earlier mentioned) is equal to 2 seconds.

I might very well have made some errors in the code, I do however not see it atm.
As such, I would want someone to either point out where the error is, or give a better simulation or analytic derivation to backup their method.

[Chuupag]

I can't really read that code that well. Been a long time since I had any programming classes.

My math makes sense to me, that the 50/50 split is also the average length of time between procs and extrapolating that time frame over the minute gives you the PPM. But I think this may be boiling down to a mean vs median problem, meaning the average might be one thing, but the peak of the distribution curve may be another. All of our numbers are fairly close in the grand scheme of things between 5 and 8 depending on who is doing the math and what system they are using. Let's move towards a more meta discussion of the issue.

I believe this tier set, combined with the change to the cooldown of EB (6 seconds last notes I saw) is pushing our stat weights to more heavily favor crit. As it was with a 9 second cooldown, we could have been approaching a point where we could be capping our EB stacks before the cooldown came up under certain gear choices and temporary buffs. This when combined with the tier set would have exasperated the issue since most people would likely be dropping haste for more crit since you would need less chi. I'm curious as to what Gynshon's logs are going to say about incoming damage and PB usage as that will give us more data with which to work with and analyze.

[Vargarii]

I can't really read that code that well. Been a long time since I had any programming classes.

My math makes sense to me, that the 50/50 split is also the average length of time between procs and extrapolating that time frame over the minute gives you the PPM. But I think this may be boiling down to a mean vs median problem, meaning the average might be one thing, but the peak of the distribution curve may be another. All of our numbers are fairly close in the grand scheme of things between 5 and 8 depending on who is doing the math and what system they are using. Let's move towards a more meta discussion of the issue.

I believe this tier set, combined with the change to the cooldown of EB (6 seconds last notes I saw) is pushing our stat weights to more heavily favor crit. As it was with a 9 second cooldown, we could have been approaching a point where we could be capping our EB stacks before the cooldown came up under certain gear choices and temporary buffs. This when combined with the tier set would have exasperated the issue since most people would likely be dropping haste for more crit since you would need less chi. I'm curious as to what Gynshon's logs are going to say about incoming damage and PB usage as that will give us more data with which to work with and analyze.

5 to 8 ppm is not relatively close. Over the course of a 5 minute fight this becomes 25 free pbs to 40 free pbs. However, in favor of other discussion, I'm all for letting it go.

I'm also curious to see the logs from gynshon, because I'm curious to see how damage intake will look during inital progression, and the discussion that follows to best mitigate it.

[Alucin]

This 4p thing still bothers me. Let's say we get 6 procs per minute, and we only need to clear Stagger 6 times per minute. Level 30 talents has their Chi costs removed. WTF are we going to spend our Chi on? I already maintain 90+% shuffle on most fights, it will just become that much easier?

PTS thus far I have seen Stagger get pretty high, pretty quickly on the few fights I have tested, so maybe that is their goal in a way to lighten the PB chi load since we will be Purifying every 5 secs? If this is the case, then our class is flawed and needs serious tweaking.

Next PTS I will be logging and post them.

Yeah, and as this is the 4 pc, ie significant time of successful raiding to acquire, they can't balance around that

so get the 4 pc and then you can dump all your chi generation stats to crit.
Or they buff breath of fire for single target...?

as the class has felt really good for t14, I really hope they don't mess it up....

[Chuupag]

Yeah, and as this is the 4 pc, ie significant time of successful raiding to acquire, they can't balance around that

so get the 4 pc and then you can dump all your chi generation stats to crit.
Or they buff breath of fire for single target...?

as the class has felt really good for t14, I really hope they don't mess it up....

Casuals could conceivably have the 4-set prior to hardcores since they have stated the LFR gear from the next tier will be lower ilvl than heroic raid gear, giving hardcore raiders the dilemma to downgrade ilvl to get a set bonus.

[gynshon]

Going to throw this out there. Let's assume 6 PB per minute are free. That is 6 free Chi per minute.

Can you guys drop from 15% expertise to 7.5% expertise now that we will have 6 free Chi to spend on PB per minute, so your whopping .5 KS that gets parried in the same minute timeframe isn't a big deal anymore? Just curious...

[Alucin]

Casuals could conceivably have the 4-set prior to hardcores since they have stated the LFR gear from the next tier will be lower ilvl than heroic raid gear, giving hardcore raiders the dilemma to downgrade ilvl to get a set bonus.

Well, yes, and the same issue we have today. My guild is now 6/14 heroic and I still have lfr gloves and helm. But the set bonus is nice, not mandatory. My point being that they can't balance our chi usage/pb usage around having this 4 piece bonus without breaking other things. (ie hopefully damage reports from ptr won't show a need to purify constantly)

I'll leave it there but I just hope that the patch and set bonus don't change the way we play too much. I'm sure it won't in practice....

---------- Post added 2013-01-21 at 10:21 AM ----------

Going to throw this out there. Let's assume 6 PB per minute are free. That is 6 free Chi per minute.

Can you guys drop from 15% expertise to 7.5% expertise now that we will have 6 free Chi to spend on PB per minute, so your whopping .5 KS that gets parried in the same minute timeframe isn't a big deal anymore? Just curious...

I was trying not to go there lol. But it would be devalued. As, to that point, would haste, but exp parry cap would be difficult to justify. Unless I drop all haste whatsoever!!

Regardless, crit stacking could happen much earlier, which might be nice.

(also, I had a keg smash parry on the pull on elegon and blamed you. we didn't wipe of course, but I didn't like it!)