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  1. #481
    Deleted
    There is couple issues with that hypothesis of mount not dropping.

    1. those armory scanners are just samplings
    2. many people have said it has been dropped, regardless of any confirmation
    3. extremely low drop rate
    4. people who may have got it, not neccesarily took any screenshots

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-09 at 04:48 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Wezmon View Post
    Someone did the maths on the chances of it not dropping assuming sha was only killed 10 times a week per server and it comes to 1 in 49,444,818,741.

    Then there's a hotfix and somone gets it straight away.

    Is there a chance that its a coincidence? yes. Is it likely. No.
    Provide me that calculation

  2. #482
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Wezmon View Post
    Someone did the maths on the chances of it not dropping assuming sha was only killed 10 times a week per server and it comes to 1 in 49,444,818,741.

    Then there's a hotfix and somone gets it straight away.

    Is there a chance that its a coincidence? yes. Is it likely. No.
    And this is what most people refuse to accept.

  3. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by Cle View Post
    There is couple issues with that hypothesis of mount not dropping.

    1. those armory scanners are just samplings
    2. many people have said it has been dropped, regardless of any confirmation
    3. extremely low drop rate
    4. people who may have got it, not neccesarily took any screenshots

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-09 at 04:48 PM ----------


    Provide me that calculation
    I seriously can't believe your idiocy. The chances of this being a coincidence are even lower than the chances that not a single person could provide proof of this mount's existence prior to this hotfix. There is still a 200,000g reward from one of the posters in thread 4 on general forums for anyone who can provide proof they received the mount prior to 2/6/13. Not a single person can collect?

  4. #484
    That'd be the biggest coincidence I ever saw. They answered 4 threads of questions via twitter, a day or so went by for them to double check, and now someone has it. I figured it'd be pretty clear to everyone what just happened. Oh well. Still have those that claim Blizzard never flubs up on anything EVER.

  5. #485
    And now we have a 2nd person who's received the mount, just hours after the hotfix.
    http://us.battle.net/wow/en/characte...ed&filter=onyx

  6. #486
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    Quote Originally Posted by zenyatta View Post
    That'd be the biggest coincidence I ever saw. They answered 4 threads of questions via twitter, a day or so went by for them to double check, and now someone has it. I figured it'd be pretty clear to everyone what just happened. Oh well. Still have those that claim Blizzard never flubs up on anything EVER.
    Blizzard is our Lord and Savior, an infallible God who has never flubbed up drop rates on any boss. Nevermind the fact that Feng went about 3 months without dropping certain items, EVER, on heroic. Nope, no loot errors EVER happen.

    I'm only jesting. But it's quite remarkable how...dense(?) some people are.

  7. #487
    Deleted
    Not all wow player are readings mmo champions etc

    No reason to believe for a fact that mounts did not drop before that server restart. Like I said, only blizzard can confirm.

  8. #488
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cle View Post
    Not all wow player are readings mmo champions etc

    No reason to believe for a fact that mounts did not drop before that server restart. Like I said, only blizzard can confirm.
    So, nobody could ever find a person with the mount for several days, but HOURS after a server restart, we've already found two?

    REALLY?

  9. #489
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaneiac View Post
    So, nobody could ever find a person with the mount for several days, but HOURS after a server restart, we've already found two?

    REALLY?
    Only 1 option.

    MAGIC

  10. #490
    Quote Originally Posted by Cle View Post
    Provide me that calculation
    "To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.It isn't even remotely imaginable.

    Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.

    Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.

    I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.

    A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.

    The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.

    Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.

    Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741. This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.

    Have I made my point?"

    from Azeban on officail forums

  11. #491
    Deleted
    Well we had some screenshots. Above I wrote what are the issues with your hypothesis.

  12. #492
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cle View Post
    Well we had some screenshots. Above I wrote what are the issues with your hypothesis.
    You're chalking it up to "coincidence" that they didn't fix ANYTHING and TWO people happened to get the mount in a matter of hours, when NOBODY had it for 5 months?

    Are you fucking serious?

  13. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaneiac View Post
    You're chalking it up to "coincidence" that they didn't fix ANYTHING and TWO people happened to get the mount in a matter of hours, when NOBODY had it for 5 months?

    Are you fucking serious?
    There is no reasoning with some people.

  14. #494
    Quote Originally Posted by Cle View Post
    Well we had some screenshots. Above I wrote what are the issues with your hypothesis.
    Really? The only screenshots I see on wowhead are of the Sha mount, posted less than an hour ago.

  15. #495
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Wezmon View Post
    "To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.It isn't even remotely imaginable.

    Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.

    Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.

    I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.

    A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.

    The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.

    Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.

    Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741. This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.

    Have I made my point?"

    from Azeban on officail forums
    What does that .99999^1,231,200 mean

    should be 99.99999
    Last edited by mmoc090a203492; 2013-02-09 at 05:15 PM.

  16. #496
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cle View Post
    What does that .99999^1,231,200 mean

    should be 99.99999
    99.9999^1231200 = infinity according to google. I'm not a math major, what do I know

  17. #497
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    drop chance for mount is according to him 0.001%

  18. #498
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cle View Post
    drop chance for mount is according to him 0.001%
    100% is not 100. 100% is 1 when working with decimals. It's why when working out percentages, you multiply your base number by .XX when trying to find a percentage. It would not be 99.99999. Bear with me, I'm trying to dumb this down as best I can.

  19. #499
    Deleted
    i still dont understand logic behind ".99999"

  20. #500
    my guildie has sha mount..for a month or 2... soo

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