5.3 Greenfire soon?!

[Deleted]

2nd post is correct that it stays at 100% but based on the bolded portion of the first post I assume he meant that your chance of having gotten the drop on any single one of those 100 attempts at a 1% chance has gone up (although using the 4 words "at most on average" certainly added ambiguity). This is represented by the formula:

(The chance you haven't gotten something) = (The chance of you not getting it)^(The number of times you try)

In this case:

.36 = .99^100

1 - .36 = .64 ----- 64% chance of you having gotten the drop on any single one of the 100 kills with a 1% chance each. Even though each individual (including the one you actually got the drop on) all had a 1% chance.

This is all of course assuming that the tome is indeed a 1% chance, the math is sound for any 1% chance as well, mounts etc. inclusive.

Can't cite any sources, but I was under the impression it was around 4%. Wowhead states it's 2-3%, but I'm not confident of their sampling size.

[Maynards]

Just farm gold and buy it off AH

[Phoenexis]

Again, it is supposed to be rare. Go farm gold and buy it.

It's supposed to be rare because it is hard to achieve. I don't really see where's the pride in farming something that takes no effort.

---------- Post added 2013-03-19 at 06:26 PM ----------

No, it doesn't give an idea in the slightest and is an absurdly asinine "example".

A better description would be "Kill "rare" mobs on a relatively frequent spawn timer that take zero effort and grant a minimum of 15vp per kill with a chance at other useful and / or lucrative drops, in the pursuit of a 1% drop rate item".

It's got the same drop chance as most rare mount, but has zero difficulty and multiple drop sources - seems pretty damn fair to me.

Granted, you put it in a much better way, but not everyone does PvE. I'm personally not that annoyed by it, even though I ended buying my tome. But I can imagine how frustrated someone must be because they have to hope for RNG to favor them. Actually, I'd find it much more acceptable if you had to farm a ton of mobs for a sure-fire reward instead of "hoping" that the item will drop on one of them.

[Ceolas]

If you were only playing 5.2 for the Green Fire, you probably won't be missed anyways.

[Ripox]

This is faulty logic on how RNG works and doesn't represent the truth in anyway. With a 1% drop rate, you are not guaranteed to see a drop in 100 kills or even 1000 kills for that matter. You chance at a drop doesn't increases w/ more kills, it remains 1%. Like having a 100 sided dice and rolling it to get the #1, just cause you roll it 100 times doesn't make it anymore likely to roll a 1 than if you roll it 1 time.

Aye, but your logic is incorrect. The set drop rate is 1%. If he has done 20 kills and 0 drops, the drop rate he has experienced so far is 0%. Now, the law of large numbers suggests that as the sample size (in this case, # of kills) increases, then the drop rate should fix itself to fit the 1%.

You are actually wrong as you seem to be phrasing your logic incorrect, Deatheryn. If drop chance is 1%, if he does 100 kills vs 1000 kills, he SHOULD have more drops when he does 1000 kills. The idea you are TRYING to express is that when you kill a mob, the chance is still 1%, it will not become 2% for the next mob because you didn't get a kill from the last mob. That being said however, it would be 'LIKELY' in a sample size of 100 to get 1 drop. That isn't guaranteed as this is still RNG. RNG is RNG, nothing more can be said. All experiences (people saying 95757493577454934757743894 kills and 0 drops or 2 kills and 2 drops) are IRRELEVANT. We know it is 1% so anecdotal experiments won't change that as the only things anecdotes can attempt to accomplish is to confirm an uncertain droprate. Only thing that can be said to the OP is that RNG is RNG and it hasn't been in his favor so far. Kill more, you're bound to get one sooner or later, have fun.

I made this post assuming 1% droprate, that number can reasonably be switched out for whatever the real one is

[kenshinag]

Got mine off the 117th rare mob, 9 days after patch dropped. Killed Kan 2 days later. Keep at it. Def worth the sense of accomplishment you get at the end of it all.

---------- Post added 2013-03-19 at 08:47 AM ----------

Can't cite any sources, but I was under the impression it was around 4%. Wowhead states it's 2-3%, but I'm not confident of their sampling size.

I think that info is even further inaccurate because it's supposed to only drop for locks and that data was taken by much more than people playing lock.

[rezoacken]

I'll probably just wait for the price to drop, its already in the low 40K while it was 150K at the start.

[Deleted]

WHAT ? you have to grind and kill things for something thats nice, new and shiny ? Seriously ? Ain't nobody got time for that.

Fuckin take your chances and farm it instead of coming to a forum and cry that _only_ your warlock class gets screwed by evil evil blizzard for actually giving you something you wanted for years.

People can't wait a few days for something, it has to be NOW NOW NOW.

[Deleted]

I'll probably just wait for the price to drop, its already in the low 40K while it was 150K at the start.

Yes, the price drops really, really fast.
Luckily I've managed to sell three tomes for about 80k before price slump began...now they are already down to ~35k and I still have four on my bank alt.

[Magally]

WTF why does blizzard always do this to warlocks?!!?

Oh yes, a complete class redesign and a special snowflake scenario and spell effects, poor you.

[Deleted]

Oh yes, a complete class redesign and a special snowflake scenario and spell effects, poor you.

Blizzard clearly hates warlocks.

[Aeluron Lightsong]

Blizzard clearly hates warlocks.

Yeah, evil evil Blizzard. Locks are such victims of class balance these days >_>

[seventysix]

Can tell from OP that you probably wouldn't be able to kill the final boss anyways, lol, don't be in a hurry!

[Jamber]

Do you know what the drop rate of cool stuff for Paladins, Priests, Warriors, Mages, Death Knights, Druids, Shaman and Rogues are?

That's what I thought.

[Deleted]

hope your lock is raid geared or else you will be stuck with the last boss of the scenario XD

[Gohzerlock]

If 5.3 comes does everyone get free green fire? Did I miss something? I wish they'd scale the boss to ilvl that way impatient people would never get it. The drop rate is fine, if you really want it you'll get it.

[Sayier]

I hope they keep it rare...it should feel like an accomplishment. If you really want ti bad enough you will farm it like the rest of us did.

[Sumskittles]

The great thing about that tome coming off rares is it's a free-for-all loot item, so it's every warlock for themself with looting the rare first, make sure you turn on autoloot and get right on the rare's face when he's in execute phase, that's how i got mine.

[Glockoma]

They better not nerf the fight. It separates the bads from the rest

[Deleted]

I do the dailies 2-3 times per week. So i tend to run to rares in that time. If it bothers to drop for me ok. If not. still ok