Where have all the Raiders Gone?

[Tomana]

There have been
~63000 raids doing Dragonsoul (and ~53000 clearing it on normal)
~42000 raids doing Mogu'shan Vaults
~34000 raids doing Heart of Fear
~20500 raids doing Terrace of Endless Spring
~19000 raids doing Throne of Thunder
(source: http://www.wowprogress.com/)

You must be very careful with Cata data. First of all, DS was quite simple on normal (esp. the first boss), was around for a year and had a good catch-up mechanic leading to it (4.3 5-mans + VP gear + LFR), as well as a progressive nerf system that ended at 30%. Consequently, it is not that surprising it was done by a lot of people. If you look at Firelands for example, you will get 64279 guilds downing the first boss until the end of MOP (meaning until ~20 sept 2012), which was easier with DS gear. If we look at the MSV figures at patch 6.0 chances are they will be higher too.

My conclusion. Raiding is in trouble and the number of raiders has been dropping like a stone in this expansion.

That's for sure. However, I don't think it all comes down to healing/dps rotation. Rather, it comes down to the rigid time investment required by raiding. If you want to advance in (and farm) a tier with 16 or 12 bosses, you will need a lot of time just to run through it, not to mention progress on new bosses. DS was just 7 bosses and it looks like it was about right for a lot of casual guilds.

Less and less people can afford 3-4 nights of raiding (which is frankly what you need for a tier that big), so they stick to LFR.

[Kryos]

You must be very careful with Cata data. First of all, DS was quite simple on normal (esp. the first boss), was around for a year and had a good catch-up mechanic leading to it (4.3 5-mans + VP gear + LFR), as well as a progressive nerf system that ended at 30%. Consequently, it is not that surprising it was done by a lot of people. If you look at Firelands for example, you will get 64279 guilds downing the first boss until the end of MOP (meaning until ~20 sept 2012), which was easier with DS gear. If we look at the MSV figures at patch 6.0 chances are they will be higher too.

Raiding always took much time. In vanilla and Burning Crusade much more than now. In fact our raid times are half the time we used in vanilla. This can't be the factor. You need to check what changed between then and now and the only thing that really changed is the complexity of the game and the mechanics.

Compare this fight from a hunters view:

To this fight from a hunters view:


click in the middle of the fight and see yourself. Even if you never played a hunter you see the difference.

And now think of the average player that can't even do a proper dps rotation.

[Fagatronics]

-snip-

No, just no. I agree WoW may not be the powerhouse sub base it is now in a few years. But for someone claiming to have facts, you make A LOT of wild accusations and assumptions about kids on pcs, Titan, and the mmo market.

the encounters also get too complicated.

I think this is true, but less because of the vocal hardcore and more so because of the amount of abilities we have now. Old raiding some classes could heal, some could dps, and the rest just kind of buffed and filled niche roles. Now all classes have lots more utility and tons of CDs. So encounters are designed with these new abilities and CDs in mind.

[Osmeric]

That's for sure. However, I don't think it all comes down to healing/dps rotation. Rather, it comes down to the rigid time investment required by raiding. If you want to advance in (and farm) a tier with 16 or 12 bosses, you will need a lot of time just to run through it, not to mention progress on new bosses. DS was just 7 bosses and it looks like it was about right for a lot of casual guilds.

Less and less people can afford 3-4 nights of raiding (which is frankly what you need for a tier that big), so they stick to LFR.

To progress on LFR takes time too, especially if one is good about capping VP.

I suspect, if we had access to the stats, we'd find a lot of people with multiple characters going through LFR.

[skitzy129]

The raiders are in ToT.

[Fagatronics]

To progress on LFR takes time too, especially if one is good about capping VP.

I suspect, if we had access to the stats, we'd find a lot of people with multiple characters going through LFR.

I agree. I'm curious why this time investment issue is a problem now when it's been a part of raiding for 8 years.

LFR is definitely more convenient, but I do wonder what the time investment in LFR is per an account; or the play time for players who exclusively run LFR per week compared to a normal mode raider play time.

[LeroyJenkins]

To progress on LFR takes time too, especially if one is good about capping VP.

I suspect, if we had access to the stats, we'd find a lot of people with multiple characters going through LFR.

I would agree with that. Since LFR is not really bound to the same strengths and restrictions as Norm/Heroic raiding, it would only make sense that Raiders would take advantage of this system. If nothing more than to get some easy VP and a shot at some upgradeable loot. I have no desire to raid Reg/Heroic, and frankly haven't got that kind of free time. LFR is really the only way for me to play and get to see the raid content for the current tier.

[Osmeric]

The raiders are in ToT.

Less than half the guilds that downed any boss in T14 normal have downed the first boss in ToT.

If you compare how many guilds had downed Feng at this point in T14, vs. how many have downed Horridon, a decline can also be seen.

---------- Post added 2013-03-29 at 04:01 PM ----------

I agree. I'm curious why this time investment issue is a problem now when it's been a part of raiding for 8 years.

I think it's a red herring, not an issue. I think people have plenty of time, but aren't doing normal mode because of the tuning.

[LeroyJenkins]

I agree. I'm curious why this time investment issue is a problem now when it's been a part of raiding for 8 years.

LFR is definitely more convenient, but I do wonder what the time investment in LFR is per an account; or the play time for players who exclusively run LFR per week compared to a normal mode raider play time.

People have grown up, gotten jobs, gotten married, had kids, moved away from the game. Those of us left behind are left to handle the next generation. The time sink that is raiding is no longer as important to players as it once may have been. It says alot that 40 man became 25, and that 25 has almost turned into 10s. I would imagine if the trend continues, raids will be 5M regs and 10M heroics just for the convenience. Most players might not have the time to farm/make food/make pots/flasks/ and research. Easier just to stroll into LFR.

[Kryos]

Easier just to stroll into LFR.

LFR is an abonination. I'm in one right now. People have zero clue what to do. It's just stupid and no fun. I only visit it with twinks for some basic loot. I really hate it. It turned raiding into a sad joke and gives people a totally wrong impression what raiding is. I guess anyone who starts with LFR will never want to join a regular raid guild.

[LeroyJenkins]

LFR is an abonination. I'm in one right now. People have zero clue what to do. It's just stupid and no fun. I only visit it with twinks for some basic loot. I really hate it. It turned raiding into a sad joke and gives people a totally wrong impression what raiding is. I guess anyone who starts with LFR will never want to join a regular raid guild.

It's not meant to impress "real" or "hardcore" raiders. It is meant for Casuals to raid at their leisure and not feel the pressure from elitists. Nice part about an optional feature is not ever having to use it

[Vennet]

Ive only raided this exp and patch but im having fun but im sure it will get old any game you play will get old in some aspect

[Fagatronics]

People have grown up, gotten jobs, gotten married, had kids, moved away from the game.

These people have existed since WoWs inception. I played with many friends with families, jobs, and they still found time to raid. Only difference is now LFR is a bite size raid morsel to satiate some former raiders appetites.

My question is: do players who exclusively run LFR do so because it's more convenient and they have less time to play or just because it's more convenient?

[LeroyJenkins]

These people have existed since WoWs inception. I played with many friends with families, jobs, and they still found time to raid. Only difference is now LFR is a bite size raid morsel to satiate some former raiders appetites.

My question is: do players who exclusively run LFR do so because it's more convenient and they have less time to play or just because it's more convenient?

I think it might be a bit of both. If I can see the content without having to spend 15+ hours a week farming mats/pots/flasks/food/researching/grinding dailies/buying vp gear, why would I bother ever doing anything other than LFR? I think most people are thinking the same way. They raided to see the content. Now they can LFR to see content and not have to abide by some rigid schedule and strict rules set forth by raid guilds. People can now see what they want and do it when it is convenient for them. Gives them more time with their families and less time in a video game. Just my opinion, but I do the exact same thing.

[Tomana]

Raiding always took much time. In vanilla and Burning Crusade much more than now. In fact our raid times are half the time we used in vanilla. This can't be the factor. You need to check what changed between then and now and the only thing that really changed is the complexity of the game and the mechanics.

Yes, but the thing is that tolerance to time commitment crashes even faster than the time required for raiding. You're missing that element.
People are more and more reluctant to invest time in raiding. Raiding time required may be lowering as well, but not that fast.

Also, some fights in LK were actually equally complex (Mimiron HM and LK HM were not simple as well )

---------- Post added 2013-03-29 at 06:11 PM ----------

To progress on LFR takes time too, especially if one is good about capping VP.
I suspect, if we had access to the stats, we'd find a lot of people with multiple characters going through LFR.

Of course, but LFR can be done in pieces of 3 bosses, whenever you have the time. That's the fundamental difference.

[Eisenstein]

I can't believe all the input people have put into this. It tells you that there are still many players passionate about raiding. It also says that some one should go through and see what is on the peoples mind.

Seems like the down fall of raiding is kind of like global warming. Is it a natural progression or possibly man made? Or how about it may be a combination of both. Regardless there should be something done to at least see if it can be helped before it is to late.

[Yseraboy]

If I can see the content without having to spend 15+ hours a week farming mats/pots/flasks/food/researching/grinding dailies/buying vp gear, why would I bother ever doing anything other than LFR? I think most people are thinking the same way. They raided to see the content. Now they can LFR to see content and not have to abide by some rigid schedule and strict rules set forth by raid guilds. People can now see what they want and do it when it is convenient for them. ... Just my opinion, but I do the exact same thing.

Rings true, to me.

I remember when I first started WoW, a few months before TBC went live, and people were complaining about the time-sink of consumables - because they weren't limited to just two pots per toon during a raid - and how the move to only having one 'battle' and one 'guardian' pot was met with howls of outrage even though it was an attempt by Blizz to improve the quality of life for raiders.

My biggest reason for never joining a raiding guild was that I had no interest in putting content "on farm" so that people could gear-up. It was bad enough that I would be expected to spend hours learning how to defeat a boss, but then I would be expected to continue to defeat that -same- boss [or series of bosses] while people in the guild waited for the drops they needed to help defeat the next dps/mechanics-check boss. Lather - rinse - repeat.

LFR eliminates the need to farm a boss for other people's drops.

You can run an event just enough times to get the upgrades that are available for your toon, and then move on to the next set of upgrades.

I think it is the skipping of the Later-rinse-repeat cycle for other people's gear that is the attraction for many people in LFR.

And why wouldn't people be jerks on LFR, when it caters to the "every man for himself" mentality?

---------- Post added 2013-03-30 at 02:06 AM ----------

If you do not raid you have no need for gear past heroics.

Who said anything about "need"?

Just sayin...

---------- Post added 2013-03-30 at 02:12 AM ----------

I blame two things.
For casual players doing damage and healing correctly has become too complex (the gap between a faceroller and a elitist jerks informed good player with same gear is extreme) and the encounters also get too complicated.

I know, the good players and the hardcore players will now yell "it's not so hard, learn to play" but you can't ignore the numbers and if you would look past your own good raidgroup you would quickly realise that many players have not developed more skill than they had during vanilla WoW.

I think the developers listen too much to the very vocal minority of progress oriented skilled players that get bored with 3-button chars while the silent majority is perfectly happy if they only need to press three buttons and can concentrate on the TWO specials the boss is doing. Right now they have to manage 10+ buttons for dmg/heal and pay attention to the 3+ phases and 5+ abilitys of the boss. That's not fun for many people who still think this is a game and not a serious job or competition.

Exactly what I've been thinking.

Being a long time solo player, I've been surprised by how much the MoP quests and Dailies are forcing to learn to play my class, in ways the game hasn't previously required me to.

e.g. the recent daily that required me to interrupt the NPC's self-heal if I was to ever finish killing it.

Interrupt?

Heck, I had to google what interrupts a BM Hunter has to find out I needed to talent Silencing Shot instead of Binding Shot, and that the Intimidate skill on my pet was also an interrupt.

Who knew?

[Deleted]

Rings true, to me.

I remember when I first started WoW, a few months before TBC went live, and people were complaining about the time-sink of consumables - because they weren't limited to just two pots per toon during a raid - and how the move to only having one 'battle' and one 'guardian' pot was met with howls of outrage even though it was an attempt by Blizz to improve the quality of life for raiders.

My biggest reason for never joining a raiding guild was that I had no interest in putting content "on farm" so that people could gear-up. It was bad enough that I would be expected to spend hours learning how to defeat a boss, but then I would be expected to continue to defeat that -same- boss [or series of bosses] while people in the guild waited for the drops they needed to help defeat the next dps/mechanics-check boss. Lather - rinse - repeat.

LFR eliminates the need to farm a boss for other people's drops.

You can run an event just enough times to get the upgrades that are available for your toon, and then move on to the next set of upgrades.

I think it is the skipping of the Later-rinse-repeat cycle for other people's gear that is the attraction for many people in LFR.

And why wouldn't people be jerks on LFR, when it caters to the "every man for himself" mentality?

---------- Post added 2013-03-30 at 02:06 AM ----------



Who said anything about "need"?

Just sayin...

---------- Post added 2013-03-30 at 02:12 AM ----------



Exactly what I've been thinking.

Being a long time solo player, I've been surprised by how much the MoP quests and Dailies are forcing to learn to play my class, in ways the game hasn't previously required me to.

e.g. the recent daily that required me to interrupt the NPC's self-heal if I was to ever finish killing it.

Interrupt?

Heck, I had to google what interrupts a BM Hunter has to find out I needed to talent Silencing Shot instead of Binding Shot, and that the Intimidate skill on my pet was also an interrupt.

Who knew?

So basicly you want to play a single play game that rewards you for not knowing what the fuck you are doing...

Oh well but who cares mmo's are evil and the only we raid for a bigger numbers so we can raid even more to get even bigger numbers.

[Draknalor186]

oke.. why did u necro this one? (maby not necro but over a week since last post)

[judgementofantonidas]

because it is a valid discussion