What's your predictions for the Q1 Call?

[Osmeric]

The game is down to a couple hundred players. People just weren't going to stick around when they could play a quality game like Star Wars: Old Republic.

You made me laugh. Stop making me laugh!

[Deadite]

why are you all expecting drop in sub number?
Wasn't MoP better than Cata?

Not by much for me. Now that daily quests are the main content they release and shitty imho scenarios have replaced dungeons i think by the end of MoP i will rate it below Cata.

[MoanaLisa]

why are you all expecting drop in sub number? Wasn't MoP better than Cata?

Whether it's better or not is somewhat beside the point. There comes a time when you have to look at things outside the pure quality of the game (a subjective thing in itself) that affect how subscriptions go. Things like the age of the game; whether or not people have seen enough of the expansion; competition from other games, many of them F2P; whether or not MMO's generally are as popular as they used to be.

People are always going to be dropping out of the game. Some come back for a while, others don't. You can really only grow over the long run by attracting new players. For the most part, I don't believe that new players are very interested in paying what is quite a bit of money (barring sales) to get started in WoW when there are free alternatives out there. And MMO's aren't nearly as popular as they used to be. Competition within a gaming niche can drive consumer interest in that niche. At this point in time there's really very little in the way of competition for the pay-to-subscribe model so less interest. Other titles have tried it and either learned to survive at much lower numbers than WoW or have changed their revenue model entirely.

While I think it's true that the quality of game expansions can extend the life of a title to a great degree that's generally through slowing the rate at which people leave combined with word-of-mouth that there really is something good going on that might bring some players back as well as attract newer players. For the most part though it's difficult to think that any game that's been around for eight years is going to suddenly start growing again. I suppose it's possible but it seems rather unlikely looking forward five-to-ten years.

[But I Hate You All]

Yes, but it's still causing burnout without brining new players in, old game, it's expected.

True. I mean TBH they really should make it cheaper to start up

---------- Post added 2013-04-30 at 01:46 PM ----------

I would expect a drop.
They did a realm merger in korea, so by that action I would expect that they know the trend at least in the east and are trying to get lost subs back or at least do something to stop the players from leaving.
I would also expect a drop in the west, after the everything is shiny new period of MoP q4. I will expect that people have unsubscribed till the next content patch. Causing a drop in subs. I remember them stating that the on/off subscribing was a trend that had begun in WoW.

as for a number lets say 500k. Saying 1 mio is perhaps a bit much but I have a lingering feeling that we might end up that high.

The Korea and china stuff wont have a impact till Q2-Q3

[Pann]

The Korea and china stuff wont have a impact till Q2-Q3

What makes you say that? I would have thought that the realm mergers were a result of population decline and that they would not have an effect on the sub numbers.

[Glorious Leader]

Whether it's better or not is somewhat beside the point.

No it isn't. It's exactly the point. The game may chronologically be "old" (although even that is a relative term I mean people are still playing games that are much older say Diablo 2 for example) but it doesn't have to FEEL OLD. Mists hasn't stopped the sub loss BECAUSE IT FEELS INCREDIBLY DATED and the emphasis on grind is the problem. It's bad for 2013. This isn't 2006 and trying to appeal to that era is foolish in the extreme. Mists is bad because it's a dinosaur. Seriously? daily quests as something to do? Did they all just sit around an office one day thinking shit up only to have one guy just say "hey i know daily quests" and then everybody else nod and that was it? How little thought and innovation can you put into a product?

All this hedging by saying the game is old is comical and is just a way for you to dismiss any criticisms about the game. It's putting your fingers in your ears and screaming lalalalaala I can't hear you. Theirs is ZERO reason that the game has to continue to lose subs other than the developers don't have a clue what to do with it. Mists is a bad expansion and it's showing in the numbers. I mean if this were any other game by any other developer you'd all be screaming about how bad it was because it's loosing so many subs but since it's wow and it's blizzard you can't accept the idea that it's a poor quality product and you have to dream up this foolishness that because it's old it's can't be rejuvenated and it's just going to have to lose subscribers. Ironically you have lower expectations of the developers than I do. I expect they can make a product that will return subscribers and grow the game again. Most of you people defending them are resigned to loss.

[Glorious Leader]

Excuse me sir, you appear to have a chip on your shoulder! >_>

Because I present an opinion that confronts what you accept?

[Glorious Leader]

Not in the slightest. They are called opinions. Mine simply differs slightly. I have no illusions about what I find bad about the game and what I like about the game.

Yet when I present an opinion I have a chip on my shoulder. I should hope the next time you voice any dissent you receive a much better welcome.

[Glorious Leader]

Considering how you went into things when just trying to say that when people claim "losses are because the game is old" and your examples of how "bad" the game is, while they are opinions, clearly show you have some problems with Blizzard and the people posting on this site.

Claiming that just because it's this particular game and this particular developer, that people will blindly defend it and be happy with losses, is ridiculous. You also claim that the ONLY reason for losses is because you think the developers are inept and have no idea what to do with the game.
And by the way, stating that MoP is a bad product as a fact is asinine.

I have no problem with the people posting on this site, I have a problem with their argument.

I stand by the argument that if this were any other game and any other developer nobody would think to develop the excuse that it's old and accept that as a fact, which is itself totally asanine. The unfortunate thing is that if tmmrw they announced that subs had grown everyone would take this as profound evidence of the quality of mists of pandaria but the corollary simple can't be true.

[Seranthor]

I have no problem with the people posting on this site, I have a problem with their argument.

I stand by the argument that if this were any other game and any other developer nobody would think to develop the excuse that it's old and accept that as a fact, which is itself totally asanine. The unfortunate thing is that if tmmrw they announced that subs had grown everyone would take this as profound evidence of the quality of mists of pandaria but the corollary simple can't be true.

The problem with your argument is that you chose to use absolutes, like 'everyone'... unfortunately a single person can wreck your claim.. Assuming tomorrow that Blizzard announces a sub increase I would NOT be one to take it as 'profound evidence'... Thus... your assertion is wrecked.

[Conscious]

Stable sub numbers. If they'd been dropping, there would be some sort of uber-incentive offer to bring the numbers up before the call.

I think that 'incentive' was the recent bought of PvP changes imho.

They've pretty much hit every other base with the 'accessible to everyone' bat except for PvP, seems like the only other logical thing to do.

[Glorious Leader]

The problem with your argument is that you chose to use absolutes, like 'everyone'... unfortunately a single person can wreck your claim.. Assuming tomorrow that Blizzard announces a sub increase I would NOT be one to take it as 'profound evidence'... Thus... your assertion is wrecked.

The argument would be made by enough people on this forum that mists was the correct path. Actually even if the argument wasn't made, enough of you, probably almost all of you really, would just naturally conclude that the hypothetical sub growth or return was because mists was a good expansion. You wouldn't come up with some fairy tale explanation about the game being old or anything like that. You would conclude (and quite naturally and reasonable I think) that mists was a good expansion that brought players back in. Why is the opposite (that mists is crappy and the sub loss can be attributed to that) not a reasonable conclusion?

You haven't "wrecked" anything. Being a stand out guy doesn't disprove a damn thing. It just proves you don't go along with the crowd. Congrats. Your still going along with the crowd of people who don't go along with the crowd. You can't escape the herd.

[Seranthor]

The argument would be made by enough people on this forum that mists was the correct path. Actually even if the argument wasn't made, enough of you, probably almost all of you really, would just naturally conclude that the hypothetical sub growth or return was because mists was a good expansion. You wouldn't come up with some fairy tale explanation about the game being old or anything like that. You would conclude (and quite naturally and reasonable I think) that mists was a good expansion that brought players back in. Why is the opposite not a reasonable conclusion?

enough people isn't ALL, and despite your vast knowledge of the future and of the human psyche there are plenty that don't toe any line for or against. Personally, while being an investor I don't give a fk if subs go up or down... For me personally, I'm more interested in the health of the entire company, not just one title in their catalogue.

[Aircroth]

Why not 25 billion?

25 MILLION Billion

[Glorious Leader]

enough people isn't ALL, and despite your vast knowledge of the future and of the human psyche there are plenty that don't toe any line for or against. Personally, while being an investor I don't give a fk if subs go up or down... For me personally, I'm more interested in the health of the entire company, not just one title in their catalogue.

It doesn't have to be all. That's a ludicrous standard on your part and frankly when I said everyone if you took it as literally meaning everyone then that's your problem. It was obviously not meant to be everyone except in so far as for all intents and purposes it is virtually everyone. Your inability to understand the subtleties of the english language is not my concern, nor is your investment record.

Some one has to tell me why I shouldn't take a sub loss as evidence that mists is a crappy product when the corollary would apply. You would do it for virtually any other service or product.

[Serpenth]

According to titan focus all expansions are slated to be announced at this years Blizzcon along with titan teaser. So no expansion details. That would be very much out of the norm anyways. They may mention they are working on it and plan to have it out by X but a name won't be revealed.

As for subs I am predicting -600 to -900k. I no longer play anymore but many friends who play on various servers who I keep in contact have all claimed their realms activity has declined recently. It's just a small sample size so as far as I know it could be +2 million.

[dacoolist]

I would say around 400,000 or LESS.
This release, and 4.3 right around the corner... Really smooth.
-> I really REALLY wonder how long 4.4 is though... I would guess about 6 months

[Osmeric]

Some one has to tell me why I shouldn't take a sub loss as evidence that mists is a crappy product when the corollary would apply. You would do it for virtually any other service or product.

It could be that fatigue with the franchise, or MMOs in general, would make growing the sub base difficult for anyone. Against that headwind, losing vs. gaining subs would not be symmetrical outcomes.

Rumors we've seen suggest that Blizzard expects a gradual decline. If that is true, the question is not whether subs go down, but how they go down relative to Blizzard's expectations.

I suspect MoP may actually have exceeded their expectations.

[Glorious Leader]

It could be that fatigue with the franchise, or MMOs in general, would make growing the sub base difficult for anyone. Against that headwind, losing vs. gaining subs would not be symmetrical outcomes.

Rumors we've seen suggest that Blizzard expects a gradual decline. If that is true, the question is not whether subs go down, but how they go down relative to Blizzard's expectations.

I suspect MoP may actually have exceeded their expectations.

Then the developers have a low standard set for themselves. I happen to think they can DEFY expectations and should attempt to. Not phone it in and just accept a loss even a reduced one. Growing the game again would be defying all expectations. I happen to think they can do this but not with mists.

[BenBos]

Then the developers have a low standard set for themselves. I happen to think they can DEFY expectations and should attempt to. Not phone it in and just accept a loss even a reduced one.

Not if the market of subscription mmo's no longer exists ...

Every X million beats ... 0 million.

People forget that the competition abandoned subscriptions en masse which makes WoW the only game with multi million subscriptions...