Mafia 30: Game of Thrones

[ELYPOP]

Ely, I think only Catta knows what was going on in their head when that was typed...

*still trying to understand what was typed*

It was more in the vein that I wanted some but yeah, pretty much.

[Catta]

What are you on.

Ely, I think only Catta knows what was going on in their head when that was typed...

*still trying to understand what was typed*

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...hByk4Icg&t=182

Its awesome - i thought at least a few knew it.

- - - Updated - - -

It was more in the vein that I wanted some but yeah, pretty much.

Im interning at a hospital - im getting the good drugs...

[Blood Fox]

I still don't understand virtue and will likely never will but at no point was i lumping robo and aria together, still don't get where you get that.

[ELYPOP]

Im interning at a hospital - im getting the good drugs...

Hodor.

[Catta]

What are you on.

Remifentanyl

[Deleted]

Since no one else seems to be willing to make actual votes

Vote Xanjori

Good night people

[Krayzy]

Can Hodor keep Hodoring?
Cause I'm thoroughly enjoying this

That depends. Has Hodor been the one that is Hodoring?

The Hodor meme is something that people who have no clue about the show or books have been doing. So anyone can Hodor.

[Greeney]

Yes, poor Jaqen. At least I'm now confident that I can figure out who's got roles. I think you're more than a townie, Catta. I'm sure I know which side you're on but for now I'll keep my eyes open.

Btw, sorry for the post during nighttime, everyone especially mods. I'm sorry smelly doggy!! =[

S/he's town.

Danner was among the first to vote for Arialla as well I think. Even placing an early vote on NFT doesn't secure you anything. My guess is that Joffrey is someone you rather keep around than Jamie. The mafia might reason that the easiest way to save what I would guess is an equivalent to a GF would be to throw a team mate under the bus. Someone who would also be an easy lynch.

I agree for the most part, but don't forget that there are people to choose from who voted for Blood Fox and myself rather than either mafia. For example, Kel and Falbacca were both on after both pushes and seemed to be of the conclusion that I was a better lynch despite saying I was part of the town-mason party with people who could vouch for me. Personally though, I'm more interested in people who would vote for Blood Fox after he claimed to be an investigator? I skip one game and we're back to that ultra fail lynch a cop day 1 before giving him any chance to prove himself scenario?

Goooood morning town!

Glad to see our vigilante took the right hints and took out Arialla. See people, this is why not sticking to your guns is a BAD THING!

Who says it's a vigilante who killed Joffrey and not a Serial Killer?

Next up for me is to analyze the vote records. There is a LOT of delicious information in there. I expect this to take an hour or so.

Yes, I'd like to do that myself when I'm bored enough.

Pistolpink:
Another thing that has just been confirmed is the existence of Vanilla townies. Whee!
(Though Greeney sort of already confirmed that)

As PistolPink mentioned, nope.
Mason with no role might be relatively useless, but I can talk to a select few people during the night. I can also relay information for them. Vanilla Townie has no information and no use other than their vote.

In case you're lying about being VT, I'll point out that you were "recruited" (redirected) to target Falbacca.

Well, I don't exactly see a modified VT as JUST a VT. I mean, Jaqen WAS a mercenary. He just probably couldn't use his abilities himself. And Greeney is not just a VT, he's a Mason.
So no, I will stick to my pistols and say: "There are no powerless, factionless VTs."

I disagree. With 20 people, I'm going to guess there's plenty of room for VTs.

[Catta]

Since no one else seems to be willing to make actual votes

Vote Xanjori

Good night people

Well the only one i had a real read on was Arialla, which turned out to be right, but now hes dead...

[LaReine]

That depends. Has Hodor been the one that is Hodoring?

The Hodor meme is something that people who have no clue about the show or books have been doing. So anyone can Hodor.

*nods* Hodor

[Catta]

You know, i find that i actually agree with Silkkus vote.

Xanjori is online and he is not posting in this new day. Lurking to the max.

Vote Xanjori

[Xanjori]

Mostly cos Im playing a game of Civ and I was looking through my notes and yesterdays stuff to see if there was anyone worth voting on. Getting two Lannister deaths so fast is a huge +. Will need to properly read through yesterdays voting situation around Arialla before coming up with my own vote.

[LaReine]

S/he's town.

I meant more than a simple townie, meaning even if Catta's a townie, he must have a power role? On my phone again, so don't remember what it's called and not about to look back.

So as Mason, which I'm just going with for now, you know who's Mason, obviously. How can you tell he's town?

[Danner]

Megapost INC!
This is the punishment you get for not nightkilling me on day 1. Deduction! *mwahahaha*

--

Hypothesis:
- Jamie Lannister (Treann) was a Mafia Goon
- Joffrey Baratheon (Arialla) was a Mafia power role.

The case against Treann was in my book pretty solid. No vote cast. No discussion offered. Almost no posts. No cake points, dammit. To claim that Treann was on a joyride headed for lynching would be an understatement. This is the kind of player you always should lynch in case of no better target on day 1. The fact that Treann was scum was simply delicious frosting on the cake.

And yet, the only reason Treann didn't get my vote when I started to go serious was this thing about Arialla. A lie. It was a white lie, but it was a lie. I looked long for a reason for this lie. I could not find it, which made it feel very wrong. Stupid me ended up unvoting at the end due to Arialla offering a very good defence (see list of reasons listed when I unvoted). But you know what... I am happy our vigilante was not so generous.

((Yes, I think it was a vigilante, Blood Fox. A SK would benefit from keeping Arialla alive, as the lynch next day would be rather easy. I could be wrong though. ))

Either way, in a vacuum, any mafioso would throw Treann under a bus in favour of Arialla. When I voted Treann, and the vote gained momentum at a terrifying speed, it should be a mafia gut instinct to get Treann lynched. Even if both got lynched eventually, Joffrey is (hypothesis) a power role, and best kept alive at least one night!

--

Let us look at the Treann votes. The vote records timeline for Treann looks like this:

Danner (457)
Greeney (461)
PistolPink (468)
Rollo (469)
Arialla (474) <- confirmed scum
Silkku (485)
ElyPop (499)

Note that PistolPink and Rollo both voted pretty much at the same time, within 1 minute, out of the blue. This is interesting. I can offer two reasons.

Reason 1:
- Both are town.
- The top three vote counts (Arialla, Blood Fox, Greeney) were inedible for some reason
- Greeney was a claimed mason
- Blood Fox was a claimed cop
- Arialla was offering a damned good defence
- A fourth candidate was needed, I offered one, every sane player jumped on it.
- The timing part was just random. It happens more often than you think.

Reason 2:
- Rollo and PistolPink are scumbuddies, and decided to wagon Treann to avoid Arialla being lynched.
- Wagoning Blood Fox at that point would raise major suspicion
- Wagoning Greeney at that point would also raise major suspicion
- Wagoning Treann would give them street cred anyway.
- Voting for Arialla is a big no-no for scum, and of course neither have done so.
- They have not voted on the same player once (except Treann). This freaks me out.
- But between them, there are 8 different vote targets. Freaky given how we have had only 3-4 real vote trains.

- Of course, this is only conjecture.
- Also, if I suspect those two, I will have to suspect this Danner bastard as well, for starting this train.
- Danner did however vote for Arialla. Obvious scum group tactics to diversify votes.

Either option is at this point equally likely, so I do not know what to do with this. I'm honestly not sure I get much out of the entire vote record, other than that I should trust Greeney, on the grounds that I know I am town. Either option is possible beyond that. I don't know if I like the option that incriminates me, but it has its merits. A mix/match is of course also possible. I have nothing conclusive.

--

Let's look at people who came to the defense of Arialla yesterday. I like a good defence, and I don't hold defending against anyone. But it better be founded in something. Time to scrutinize!

- LaReine (#500, #482)

As it happens, LaReine defended both Arialla and Treann in his posts, but especially Arialla. Yet didn't defend anyone else up for scrutiny. This is actually to the point where it would be far too obvious for the obvious conclusion: LaReine is scum defending his buddies. I haven't played with LaReine earlier, so I do not know what kind of devious ploys that comes from that direction, but the obvious conclusion sounds FAR too easy. I'm also a bit hesitant on jumping on newcomers for this at the early parts of the game. But I will say that it doesn't look good.

- Virothe (pretty much every post Virothe has made mentions "Aria": #326, #333, #337, #345, #352, #356, #361, #363, #441, #568)

Quite fixated on Arialla, aren't we Virothe? If I was a psychologist, I would say that you have been spending pretty much all your activity this game talking about Arialla. And denying so in post #568. Then again, it can reasonably be argued that it's the same discussion going on through all these posts, but yeah. This is definitively a defence of Arialla. No two ways around it. Meaning I have to try to understand the reason for your distancing in post #568. Both a scum and non-scum reason can be found.

However, you claim to defend the first person you voted for, joke or not. That... does not look too good, now does it? And as I said with Arialla, that's the second mark of suspicion for me. One can happen to anyone. Two is worth gunning for.

--

Finally, let's look at the votes for Arialla. The following people had a vote on Arialla at some point. Marked players left their votes on Arialla at the end of the day. Ie, everyone except me!

- Danner (#323)
- Blood Fox* (#346)
- Keleb* (#354)
- Celtic* (#372)
- Cattaclysmic* (#443)
- Omertocracy* (#447)

In this list, at least Blood Fox, Keleb and Celtic wins major townie points. Normally, votes after that aren't worth too much, but in this case it was down to a mafia player vs another mafia player. So anyone keeping their votes on the more value mafia (given hypothesis) should definitively not be voting in favour of the town. Thus Cattaclysmic and Omerto also gains big town points in this case.

I do however think that anyone changing votes away from Arialla (ie, me!) gain a few points of suspicion for changing votes. Ie, me!

--

So conclusions...

- Danner is playing scummy. Darned. Not the conclusion I had hoped for. I switched from a high value vote target to a low value one.
- LaReine and Virothe are definitively in need of pressure.
- Rollo and PistolPink feels fishy due to timing, but it could just as easily be them being townies needing a better lynch target.
- Danner, Blood Fox, Keleb, Celtic, Cattaclysmic, Omerto very likely town due to Arialla vote.
- Greeney very likely town due to Treann vote. Not to mention the claim

And that leaves me with the first serious business of the day.

Unvote (No vote)
Vote: Virothe

You are not brushing this off easily, Virothe. You have been directing away from Arialla all game; and there was no reason for doing so in your posts that I could find. A baseless defense is something I cannot fathom...

[Greeney]

I meant more than a simple townie, meaning even if Catta's a townie, he must have a power role? On my phone again, so don't remember what it's called and not about to look back.

So as Mason, which I'm just going with for now, you know who's Mason, obviously. How can you tell he's town?

A. He's in my mason party
B. Someone in my party has the ability to tell who is town and who isn't (i.e. Cop)
C. He said something I noticed that makes me close to 100% certain he's town

Either way I vouch for him.

[Catta]

Mostly cos Im playing a game of Civ and I was looking through my notes and yesterdays stuff to see if there was anyone worth voting on. Getting two Lannister deaths so fast is a huge +. Will need to properly read through yesterdays voting situation around Arialla before coming up with my own vote.

But you manage the post exactly 2 minutes after mine? You lurked a helluva lot last game as well...

[Virothe]

So because I say the name of the people involved in an issue that makes me scum? I said Zeri/Robo (robZERIm) Just as much but you don't bring that up. You also don't bring up that I freaking said Aria looked suspicious, I wasn't going to vote for her though. I wasn't going to let my vote ride on anyone if it looked like they might get lynched without that much going for them.

I don't like killing people day one, but I have said that before as well.

And now to explain myself "SIGH" AGAIN! I will use little words here so it may actually sink in this time.

BLOOD IGNORED THE OTHER TWO PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR HIM WITH NO BASIS TO REALLY DO SO.

Just because Aria mentioned Zeri's name doesn't give credence to ignore others, hell if anything it should make you look at them even more. And I was just irate that you all wanted to put blinders on to the fact that Aria could have been easily trying to cover up someone else by misdirecting you with Zeri's name.

I don't see what the hell is so hard to understand that you need it explained 5 different times.

[Xanjori]

But you manage the post exactly 2 minutes after mine? You lurked a helluva lot last game as well...

Because I still read the thread in between Civ turns?

[kel]

Because I still read the thread in between Civ turns?

nope, because you are uber scum lurker and watch the thread 24/7 and show up when your name is mentioned

[Catta]

nope, because you are uber scum lurker and watch the thread 24/7 and show up when your name is mentioned

Its like saying Bloody Mary