3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Pann]

Not true. You yourself started to reply to a post - on topic - that said 4th quarter losses would be even bigger because of lack of content ... unless (your words) "they released a patch 5.5 before Xmas" that would be awesome.

I answered YOUR call of the usual trash talking, that you forgot 2 things:

- BlizzCon that happens to take place at the end of November with the usual hype of a new WoW expansion (alluding to what has happened to a new D3 expansion at GamesCon : it boosted play of the said game).

- The launch of Hearthstone that will be used as a WoW franchise to lure people back in with various possibilities of combo deals.

I then went further why you guys have no clue about this general market analysis WHY subscriptions fluctuate outside of your tunnel content views - as usual -

So you started talking about 4 Quarter "before Xmas" tales yourself ...

Sorry to have answered your usual spitting on WoW with some sound founded reasoning.

Honestly I have no idea what point you are trying prove.

In regards to Blizzcon it is not going to bring in new players as the only people interested in Blizzcon will be existing, and maybe a few ex, players.

Why would people play Hearthstone over, say, Magic the Gathering? And why would they then go and spend £40-£50 plus a subscription for WOW in order to get these combo deals that you have dreamed up. This is, almost, as ridiculous as your claim that Farmville players would give up Farmville, that is free, buy WOW plus all the expansions, pay a sub fee and level to 90 in order to play the Tillers' farm.

[Superchief]

I predict a massive loss of over 1 mil due to grind issues not being resolved, throttling of existing content, under par new content (timeless isle deemed a waste of time after getting free handouts for alts in about 30 minutes), killing pvp through deliberate stat scaling, announcing failure to update (or ever plan to update) new character models, and Final Fantasy XIVARR is drinking WoW players up like all-you-can-drink champagne at a wedding.

All of my friends have moved to XIVARR, which has astonishingly repaired all of their launch issues within the first two weeks and is crammed with player activity. It's nut to butt in the 3 main cities, more players than I've seen on a full server in WoW for a very long time. I've never seen this many individual players in an MMO since Dalaran during Wotlk when Ulduar released. There are more than millions in this game and I'm going to assume many of them are players who realized they are being milked in WoW and are looking for a new favorite MMO that isn't throttling their development team.

Mark my words if the sub loss in the 3rd quarter is more than one million... WoW didn't kill itself like the long standing prophecy foretold - it's been killed by another MMO. The impossible has happened, and frankly it's about time someone at Blizzard lost 50 DKP for being kicked into the whelps and not knowing what the F to do.

[Mawnix]

200 million sub increase.

You heard it here first.

Also: ain't a Subscriber Loss thread unless Pann and BenBos are going at it.

[Osmeric]

and Final Fantasy XIVARR is drinking WoW players up like all-you-can-drink champagne at a wedding.

Well, it would be, if one could buy it. Digital downloads are still disabled while they work on server capacity issues.

I check every day to see if I can buy it yet.

[But I Hate You All]

200 million sub increase.

You heard it here first.

Also: ain't a Subscriber Loss thread unless Pann and BenBos are going at it.

I think your mixing up decrease and increase again. Subs only go up with new xpacs now

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Well, it would be, if one could buy it. Digital downloads are still disabled while they work on server capacity issues.

I check every day to see if I can buy it yet.

is it doing that good?

[Pejo]

I think your mixing up decrease and increase again. Subs only go up with new xpacs now

- - - Updated - - -



is it doing that good?

Well, kind of. Their server quantity is extremely low (started around 250K, and now can hold up to 500k people between all of their servers) - after the 30 days are up though, they'll open up digital downloads as their retention rate will be average; however, a lot of people enjoy the gameplay so I do expect there to be quite a bit of sales due to word of mouth. They did very well in that aspect.

On-topic: I'm thinking about 500k loss, so 7.2M. 5.4 is an excellent patch but that doesn't change burnout. I do expect Q4 to not be as bad as it could have been due to connected realms - having people to play with does reduce burnout!

[Osmeric]

is it doing that good?

"MMO Week in Review: #FFXIV and the curse of success"

http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/09...se-of-success/

[Mawnix]

I think your mixing up decrease and increase again. Subs only go up with new xpacs now

Actually you're right I made a mistake in my post.

What I meant to say was 500 million INCREASE. Sorry, didn't mean to look like a fool.

[Deleted]

"MMO Week in Review: #FFXIV and the curse of success"

http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/09...se-of-success/

It's already going into decline, the hype is going over faster than it took people by surprise.

-

As for wow, I expect a 250k increase in subs.

[Orcindauh]

How many people do we have on this planet?

Double that then you have your answers.

16 Billion sub increase.

Science!

[Flower Milk]

I voted 100k to 500k loss, but I want to change it to 500k to 1 million because I forgot this was the end of the expansion patch so I could definitely see there being a loss that big.

[Glorious Leader]

Are people expecting increases actually being serious? I mean not counting the shitty content and obvious systemic problems with the game, you honestly expect subs to increase in a holiday season FILLED with new consoles and dozens of titles coming out? I mean on the one hand shitty content isn't to blame and we shouldn't factor that as part of the loss but APPARENTLY we can if it's an increase because well then content is just so good right?

[Deadite]

N

- The launch of Hearthstone that will be used as a WoW franchise to lure people back in with various possibilities of combo deals.

What combo deal can you have when one of them is free to play? Free decks for WoW subs or something along those lines are you thinking? That would go down well with people i am sure.

I would say they will have about 500kish loss.

[But I Hate You All]

Are people expecting increases actually being serious? I mean not counting the shitty content and obvious systemic problems with the game, you honestly expect subs to increase in a holiday season FILLED with new consoles and dozens of titles coming out? I mean on the one hand shitty content isn't to blame and we shouldn't factor that as part of the loss but APPARENTLY we can if it's an increase because well then content is just so good right?

it's the same people who always say subs will go up

[Robert3620]

I think SoO is going to be out for at least ten months and bet closer to 12.

That's how it's gone for the last two tiers. I bet Dragon Soul does better at holding people then this tier does as well.

[Every Pwny]

I don't know if it will go up, but they have been taking the sub numbers from the end of the previous month. I believe they will probably take the sub numbers from now and use those at the 3rd quarter, since there is usually an increase in subs during a patch they will probably take the most beneficial number, which could even be a small increase. I would say though that 100k-500k lose is a safe bet though (closer to 100k), not too much because of a patch. There will be a much larger drop off though during the long wait from now until the next expansion though.

[Mawnix]

I think SoO is going to be out for at least ten months and bet closer to 12.

That's how it's gone for the last two tiers. I bet Dragon Soul does better at holding people then this tier does as well.

If I had to guess it'll be closer to 7-8 months.

Last two tiers were around for 5-6 months.

[Galaddriel]

I've been watching the active players list on guildox.

This week saw a drop on KR realms from 37k lvl 90 toons to 12k. They had 93k just 5 weeks ago. If this is any indication of what's happening across the board in Asia, it's going to be bloody.
http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=11&w=KR

US saw a drop this week from 968k to 856k
http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=11&w=US&l=EN

EU saw a drop this week from 1.22 mil to 1.14 mil.
http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=11&w=EU

This patch isn't doing anything.

[Mawnix]

I've been watching the active players list on guildox.

This week saw a drop on KR realms from 37k lvl 90 toons to 12k. They had 93k just 5 weeks ago. If this is any indication of what's happening across the board in Asia, it's going to be bloody.
http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=11&w=KR

US saw a drop this week from 968k to 856k
http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=11&w=US&l=EN

EU saw a drop this week from 1.22 mil to 1.14 mil.
http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=11&w=EU

This patch isn't doing anything.

Oh well. Shit happens y0.

[Al Gorefiend]

I honestly want Blizzard's subscriptions to dip down. Not in the cynical "DIE WoW DIE!" sort of way, but I want Blizzard to sort of go into panic mode and produce awesome content at a fast pace to reduce sub losses or even gain them. They've been too lax for too long without fear of losing the King of MMO's crown. I'd like them to become aware that players don't just fucking STAY with a game where the developers flat out say "We know the players want this, and we do too, but we can't/won't do it because the customer isn't always right".