3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[LilSaihah]

Q3: 300k lost - low because of 5.4
Q4: 300-500k lost - Blizzcon and pre expansion hype keep it low
Burning Legion expansion: 2M+ gained and going stable for a while
no BL expansion: <1M gained and quickly losing subs

If a Burning Legion expansion is in line, why would they resubscribe now? Surely they'd wait until the expansion actually hit.

[Pann]

Q3: 300k lost - low because of 5.4
Q4: 300-500k lost - Blizzcon and pre expansion hype keep it low
Burning Legion expansion: 2M+ gained and going stable for a while
no BL expansion: <1M gained and quickly losing subs

There has been no meaningful gain in subs, outside of an expansion release, since the beginning of Wrath. Where subs increased to 12 million and then stagnated around the 11.5 million mark throughout the expansion before, again, climbing to 12 million at the beginning of Cata, apart from a bump in subs at the beginning of MOP they have been in free fall ever since. Players are not going to return just on the announcement of an expansion which might be several months away and despite a great deal of excitement on these forums about a Burning Legion themed expac I do not think it will be that successful in attracting new or returning players. The gap between next expansion and TBC is, now, too great many of the players it would appeal to will have moved on a number of years ago and they would be required to buy and play through expansions that have previously not held any interest for them.

[zoomgpally]

If more players quit then that's good.

Chances are they are casual and that means less crappy players to have an unfortunate experience by playing this game together with them in LFD or LFR.

*facepalm*

Chances are they are paying for subs, which means less money if they quit, aka less money for your raids
Also, dont compare casuals to bads

[But I Hate You All]

Could be part of the problem but the decline in the Guildox data goes back several weeks and pre-dates 5.4 and the start of the latest PVP season. An interesting point in the post you linked says that players are moving to US servers I wonder if it has got to the point where Korean servers are so empty that players have decided to move to more populated US realms thus accelerating the decline in the Korean WOW population and if so I am not sure if it is an issue that Blizzard will be too concerned about.

Idk....seems that korea wow has a huge pvp issue

[xanzul]

*facepalm*

Chances are they are paying for subs, which means less money if they quit, aka less money for your raids
Also, dont compare casuals to bads

How so? Subscriptions don't always correlate with content. EQ1 has been around nearly 15 years and they are releasing its 20th expansion next month and they have only recently gone free to play (and as many other mmos are doing now also provide normal subscription option). That game never broke 1 million subscriptions and they haven't had over 500k for many years and yet there is consistent and constant updates through expansions and patches. Wow has lost over 5 million subscriptions and what is Blizzard's reaction? To hire more developers and artists for Wow and continue to increase the team size so they can release monthly content patches and yearly expansions. So can we please dispense with this nonsense that lost subscriptions means less content and support? It's a flat out lie perpetuated by bitter butthurt players who can't deal with the fact Blizzard has basically told them to fuck off and only wish to see Blizzard, Wow and this community die a slow painful death rather than move on with their lives.

[Sughs]

The 3rd quarter call will be just before Blizzcon, right?

It's getting close, i would say around 500k loss. Yeah, even with 5.4.

[Osmeric]

The 3rd quarter call will be just before Blizzcon, right?

The Q3 call will be in early November.

[scarson]

I predict sub loss around 0.5M.

It will get much worse between the last raid and the next expansion.

[thebelltolleth]

Who cares?

Why is it that the same few people seemingly <snip>

Just shut it, you and the other moralists and superior types. It's just simple prediction, like a bet. It will go down, big deal, the game survives. It's called tracking a trend.

Reassess your role as 'educator of the world' and how the world really sees you as to your qualifications.

[Deleted]

Since Q3 is around November....my best guess would be 500K to 1M.Sure,patch 5.4 is still relatively new,but we are still left hanging with SoO till the next expansion hits,or at least until 5.5.
Sub numbers may also increase or even decrease depending on what the next expansion will be.We all remember how it looked when MoP was announced. :P

[enchanted]

Since Q3 is around November....my best guess would be 500K to 1M.Sure,patch 5.4 is still relatively new,but we are still left hanging with SoO till the next expansion hits,or at least until 5.5.
Sub numbers may also increase or even decrease depending on what the next expansion will be.We all remember how it looked when MoP was announced. :P

And then most of the people or "kids" left who dislikes the idea about pandas. That being said, I'm still sure it wont be down more than 700k.

[theWocky]

Blizzard has added quite a bit of content to their game, so I will be interested to see what happens. Yes, the game is aging, probably not enticing / drawing many new players, but I think they may have a bigger "hard-core" fan-base than many speculate.

[Osmeric]

Since Q3 is around November....my best guess would be 500K to 1M.

The Q3 announcement is in November. The data that they are announcing, however, is for the period from July 1 - Sept 30.

[Dorfadin]

Don't think there will be that big a drop, there's been no good MMO's released this year, since Wildstar, Elder Scrolls and EQ Next don't arrive till Easter next year at least.

[Osmeric]

Don't think there will be that big a drop, there's been no good MMO's released this year, since Wildstar, Elder Scrolls and EQ Next don't arrive till Easter next year at least.

There's been plenty of decline already this year.

[xanzul]

Just shut it, you and the other moralists and superior types. It's just simple prediction, like a bet. It will go down, big deal, the game survives. It's called tracking a trend.

Reassess your role as 'educator of the world' and how the world really sees you as to your qualifications.

Maybe you should educate yourself first. This thread was made less than two weeks after the Q2 call with the sole intention of bleating once again about how terrible this game supposedly is and how soon it will die. If anyone else but Jaylock had made this thread I wouldn't be nearly as cynical about the purpose of this thread. As far as tracking trends go, most people who come here are bitter about Wow and Blizzard and any "predictions" they make aren't based on the state of the game but on how much they personally dislike the game. They can't comprehend that anyone else could possibly like a game they no longer enjoy.

- - - Updated - - -

Since Q3 is around November....my best guess would be 500K to 1M.Sure,patch 5.4 is still relatively new,but we are still left hanging with SoO till the next expansion hits,or at least until 5.5.
Sub numbers may also increase or even decrease depending on what the next expansion will be.We all remember how it looked when MoP was announced. :P

Mop could have been TBC 2.0 and this next expansion could have been TBC 3.0 and people would have still quit the game. No mmo is going to hold player interest forever. It just doesn't happen.

- - - Updated - - -

Don't think there will be that big a drop, there's been no good MMO's released this year, since Wildstar, Elder Scrolls and EQ Next don't arrive till Easter next year at least.

I like how even to this day people are still claiming new mmos will be good before they have even been released.

[StrayFox]

I'm hoping for no sub loss, but who knows. Also if they release a expansion or a cool patch, I expect a sub gain instead.

[Deleted]

If there are any losses, it'll be from the East. EU activity has increased significantly since 5.4 and a lot of servers have frequent queues.

[Glorious Leader]

I'm hoping for no sub loss, but who knows. Also if they release a expansion or a cool patch, I expect a sub gain instead.

My feeling is that this last patch won't draw very many people back. It could mind you since flex is a pretty good addition but I mean even that it's just another raid. Who cares?

[StrayFox]

My feeling is that this last patch won't draw very many people back. It could mind you since flex is a pretty good addition but I mean even that it's just another raid. Who cares?

Yeah I think Blizzard needs some big feature to bring people back.

I have a couple friends that said they "Quit WoW forever!" And what they said they want back in the game in order for them to come back is :

More challenging content, including low level quests and dungeons.

And a way to flex below 10 man raids. like 8 man or something.

They just hate how the game is super easy in most areas and when we all played we could never get 10 people haha, mostly because they are weird picky people who hate playing with strangers.

Honestly, I quit too, but I'd just come back if they just updated the models hahaha