3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Piggo]

When I read threads like this, I realise WoW's problem is the community, not the game itself. Everyone feels like Blizzard should make the game catered to them and them alone, and are pissed when they get burned out after hundreds and hundreds of hours of play.

[willowe]

Guess: 7.5 million

[Deleted]

Don't think there will be that big a drop, there's been no good MMO's released this year, since Wildstar, Elder Scrolls and EQ Next don't arrive till Easter next year at least.

Are those the only three upcoming MMOs I might quit the genre altogether. The only one there that looked interesting was Elder Scrolls Online until I saw that the PvP is much like in GW2 where you get boosted to max level and I hated that. I’ve been searching for a good PvP MMO since the steady decline in WoW and with the final nail in 5.4.

The only problem is that most upcoming MMOs either look like a mix between Pokémon in candy land and Mario Bros or they are made by care bears who have now clue about world PvP. I don't want to be forced to PvP in giant sandboxes where all players shall be equal in the almighty quest for political correctness. The world is unfair by design and I want an MMO that reflects that and is more closer to what vanilla and TBC was but that just seem to be impossible for game designers to grasp now days.

Does anyone know about some upcoming hard core MMO where world PvP matters?

[Gimlix]

Are those the only three upcoming MMOs I might quit the genre altogether. The only one there that looked interesting was Elder Scrolls Online until I saw that the PvP is much like in GW2 where you get boosted to max level and I hated that. I’ve been searching for a good PvP MMO since the steady decline in WoW and with the final nail in 5.4.

The only problem is that most upcoming MMOs either look like a mix between Pokémon in candy land and Mario Bros or they are made by care bears who have now clue about world PvP. I don't want to be forced to PvP in giant sandboxes where all players shall be equal in the almighty quest for political correctness. The world is unfair by design and I want an MMO that reflects that and is more closer to what vanilla and TBC was but that just seem to be impossible for game designers to grasp now days.

Does anyone know about some upcoming hard core MMO where world PvP matters?

World of Warcraft will probably be far better then most MMO's even though the hate will be big when i post this, but in the end WoW is one of the best x)
And subs doesn't make the game, WoW might lose subs, but damn look how much subs they had, it's a surprise that they managed to keep 12M happy for those 6 years before the decline started.

OT: when is the next Quarter going to be?

[StrayFox]

When I read threads like this, I realise WoW's problem is the community, not the game itself. Everyone feels like Blizzard should make the game catered to them and them alone, and are pissed when they get burned out after hundreds and hundreds of hours of play.

I agree, I sometimes feel bad for Blizzard... They have to manage this crazy community. They can never please everyone, and the problem is our community is so picky that WoW can have a 90% of great features, but people will just leave because of its 10% of features they don't like.

[igame]

Who cares?

Why is it that the same few people seemingly relish the idea of sub losses. I'd even go so far as to say its like a gleeful horniness over the game slowing down.

The game isn't shutting down any time remotely soon. What a sad life it must be to be on a WoW fan website just constantly talking down about the game. Sounds like a huge waste of time broseph.

Move on already. At least other people provide (sometimes) interesting criticisms that Blizzard should take. I cannot say the same for you.

I think many people (including myself I must admit) relish the idea of WoW losing subs because it vindicates our decisions to quit the game and shows that Blizzard was wrong when it ignored us all on their forums and just kept removing threads that pointed out problems with the game.

OT: 1 million

[Deleted]

I agree, I sometimes feel bad for Blizzard... They have to manage this crazy community. They can never please everyone, and the problem is our community is so picky that WoW can have a 90% of great features, but people will just leave because of its 10% of features they don't like.

What's so strange about that? If the 10% is severely affecting an aspect of the game you like that can be more than enough for people to quit. That's why comments like "you can always switch to PvE if PvP is ruined" don’t make sense. For the most part though it’s more like 40-50% of lacking or worse game features people quit over.

[Kazlofski]

Not sure but I think not too much of a drop this time... The horrible queue in realms can support that I think unlike ToT where it was non existent...

[StrayFox]

What's so strange about that? If the 10% is severely affecting an aspect of the game you like that can be more than enough for people to quit. That's why comments like "you can always switch to PvE if PvP is ruined" don’t make sense. For the most part though it’s more like 40-50% of lacking or worse game features people quit over.

I guess the 10% of features being people who don't like the item squish, or that Blizzard added LFR. so they quit.

There are features I'd love for Blizzard to add, it just sucks that they probably won't add 50% of them because some people don't like them.

Like challenging questing.

[Koreche]

I think many people (including myself I must admit) relish the idea of WoW losing subs because it vindicates our decisions to quit the game and shows that Blizzard was wrong when it ignored us all on their forums and just kept removing threads that pointed out problems with the game.

OT: 1 million

No it doesn't because you have no idea why people left wow. Someone could have left because they felt Mages were too OP QQ, and at the same time a mage left because Rogues were too strong QQ. Maybe one person left because LFR is too accessible but a LFR player just left because SoO lfr wipes too many times.

and some people might have left just because they were simply bored of the game or real life issues.

[Deleted]

The 5.4 patch might have reduced the drop by a bit, but unlikely. Granted some will come back to beat Garrosh's skull in, but I think if you were already tired of the game before the patch you are probably still tired of the game. So my guess would be 500k-700k loss.

[Molestron]

I'm gonna go with greater than 1 mil and estimate the remaining subs at 5mil-6mil.

[Heladys]

I'm not going to say we're typical, but my (smallish) guild alone had five resubs with 5.4. If that's in any way replicated among the smaller and slightly casual guilds, that's big numbers.

[Woceip]

The fact that this is something people want to discuss, and even (based on the ! in the title) are excited to discuss, is rather depressing. I had to suppress a groan when I saw the OP. I now realize what is truly meant when people say "Oh, another Jaylock thread.". Please find a new, positive hobby.

[igame]

No it doesn't because you have no idea why people left wow. Someone could have left because they felt Mages were too OP QQ, and at the same time a mage left because Rogues were too strong QQ. Maybe one person left because LFR is too accessible but a LFR player just left because SoO lfr wipes too many times.

and some people might have left just because they were simply bored of the game or real life issues.

And all these people suddenly had all these things happen with the start of cata? Look, I don't want to argue mate but Blizz has been doing bare minimum and making the most illogical decisions for the past couple of years. If a developer does everything wrong and still keeps growing, it is terrible for the gaming industry.

I hope for massive sub loss and for the next expansion itself to be a dud so that developers remember that just because they are at top now, doesn't mean they can slack off, produce shit content and treat their customers with contempt and disrespect.

[Colossal]

id say 100k-300k just like every other expac.

[Dilbon]

When I read threads like this, I realise WoW's problem is the community, not the game itself.

That's the problem of all MMOs nowadays. The segregation of players into hardcores and casuals is just a big mess that causes mutual name calling.

[Thetruth1400]

I think 5.4 is going to really fudge the numbers so they don't seem as extreme as they really are. I expect Q3 numbers to be down about 700,000, or 7 Million subs total left.

I think that real number though, after 5.4 is done for a bunch of people since they've resubbed and are, for all intents and purposes, finished with 5.4 is closer to 6.5 million.

I expect a continued decline through Q4, which doesn't have a new expansion release to prop sales up like past years. In all honesty, I expect the next expansion to launch with around 5.5 million to 6.5 million subs tops.

[Tierbook]

I think 5.4 is going to really fudge the numbers so they don't seem as extreme as they really are. I expect Q3 numbers to be down about 700,000, or 7 Million subs total left.

I think that real number though, after 5.4 is done for a bunch of people since they've resubbed and are, for all intents and purposes, finished with 5.4 is closer to 6.5 million.

I expect a continued decline through Q4, which doesn't have a new expansion release to prop sales up like past years. In all honesty, I expect the next expansion to launch with around 5.5 million to 6.5 million subs tops.

maybe but this quarter started after 5.2 right? If you look on the front page the number of people that completed t13 to t14 went down about 20% and t14 to the first wing of t15 is down another 20% so far

[Deleted]

That's the problem of all MMOs nowadays. The segregation of players into hardcores and casuals is just a big mess that causes mutual name calling.

It's not just MMO's, it's most games with an online community.

I think the dickwad theory plays a big role in it.