3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[prwraith]

I don't believe this at all. New expansion will probably arrive before May 2014.

Still that's gonna kill their numbers, if your bored NOW you don't pay 7 months worth of subscription while you wait.

[Deleted]

There is probably less than a million people actively playing wow, subscribers mean nothing.

[Torais]

I don't believe this at all. New expansion will probably arrive before May 2014.

I guess we will find out but I think any estimate within 12 months is VERY optimistic.

[Pann]

I don't believe this at all. New expansion will probably arrive before May 2014.

That is highly unlikely we have not heard any news about the next expansion let alone when Beta would start.

[Synstir]

That is highly unlikely we have not heard any news about the next expansion let alone when Beta would start.

Well they did their best to keep all info a secret untill Blizzcon.
I don't expect that we will be raiding soo for a year or so... that doesn't sound as something they planned nor want.
I also think it will arrive before May 2014.

But we will know in 2 weeks or so.

[Vankrys]

I don't believe this at all. New expansion will probably arrive before May 2014.

TBC : Announced October 28, 2005, Released January 16, 2007 (1 year 3 months later)
WotLK : Announced August 3, 2007, Released November 13, 2008 (1 year 3 months later)
Cata : Announced August 21, 2009, Released December 7, 2010 (1 year 4 months later)
MoP : Announced October 21, 2011, Released September 25, 2012 (11 months later)

Next Expansion is not officially announced, and it usually is released about a year after the first official announcement.

[Synstir]

TBC : Announced October 28, 2005, Released January 16, 2007 (1 year 3 months later)
WotLK : Announced August 3, 2007, Released November 13, 2008 (1 year 3 months later)
Cata : Announced August 21, 2009, Released December 7, 2010 (1 year 4 months later)
MoP : Announced October 21, 2011, Released September 25, 2012 (11 months later)

Next Expansion is not officially announced, and it usually is released about a year after the first official announcement.

I don't think it is the best thing to do for this xpac: looking at wehat happened before, As Blizzard said they want to bring content faster. They are changing what happened previously....

[smokii]

i think due to flex raiding, we'll actually see a sub gain.

seriously, i know about 5/6 people that have re-subbed because my guild can now raid casually in flex, with no fighting over loot and no need to turn anyone away when more than 10 people show up, flex has reinvigorated my guild and my server. timeless isle has helped a bunch too.

[Pann]

TBC : Announced October 28, 2005, Released January 16, 2007 (1 year 3 months later)
WotLK : Announced August 3, 2007, Released November 13, 2008 (1 year 3 months later)
Cata : Announced August 21, 2009, Released December 7, 2010 (1 year 4 months later)
MoP : Announced October 21, 2011, Released September 25, 2012 (11 months later)

Next Expansion is not officially announced, and it usually is released about a year after the first official announcement.

Not to mention that beta periods usually last around six months.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think it is the best thing to do for this xpac: looking at wehat happened before, As Blizzard said they want to bring content faster. They are changing what happened previously....

They said the same at the end of Wrath and again at the end of Cata.

[Synstir]

They said the same at the end of Wrath and again at the end of Cata.

We have seen in the current xpac that they are delivering faster...that is why I think they will be able to push out the xpac faster also.

[Orcindauh]

5.6 million sub gain.

You heard it from me first.

[Pann]

We have seen in the current xpac that they are delivering faster...that is why I think they will be able to push out the xpac faster also.

No they are not, sticking a daily hub and a few quests with a weekly quest in the middle of a normal patch cycle does not mean they are delivering content faster; raid tiers are still taking six months.

[Marema]

There is probably less than a million people actively playing wow, subscribers mean nothing.

Gotta love people who are still clueless.

[Synstir]

No they are not, sticking a daily hub and a few quests with a weekly quest in the middle of a normal patch cycle does not mean they are delivering content faster; raid tiers are still taking six months.

Lets just wait and see :-)

[wych]

No they are not, sticking a daily hub and a few quests with a weekly quest in the middle of a normal patch cycle does not mean they are delivering content faster; raid tiers are still taking six months.

They're increasing size by 40% again currently.

Raid tiers need a certain amount of time or you risk most people not having time to clear them fully and people start to get angry.

Not only that, raiding is NOT the only thing in the game as some would have you believe. Lots of people enjoy PvP, professions, pet battles, leveling alts etc

[dd614]

I voted for 500k-1million sub loss because I don't see Flex providing enough incentive to gain players back.

And Blizzard's response will be more scenarios, more LFR, more welfare rewards, more Timeless Isle-style garbage, more hand-holding, more pet battles and more of what ruined WoW for so many loyal WoW players. People need to realize this game isn't what it used to be and the devs have been very clear that they're striving for a totally different audience than what built their MMO up to 11-12 million people during mid-WotLK. I suppose it's up to us now if we want to continue being taken for granted while the game goes in a direction more suited to the Call of Duty community.

[Pann]

Lets just wait and see :-)

Well lets hope you are right. But to be honest it has nothing to do with Q3 2013 sub numbers so I think it is best we leave it here.

[Synstir]

Well lets hope you are right. But to be honest it has nothing to do with Q3 2013 sub numbers so I think it is best we leave it here.

I think if we have to run soo 1 year long..... it will cause losses in sub numbers.
Bringing out the xpac while most players are still playing is the thing to go for and not wait untill lots of players decide to go for a break because they have raided soo enough.

[thelightthatstrays]

The release date of the patch will help to minimize sub loss for the third quarter. It will be 100k or so at most. They will however get hammered in the fourth quarter of 2013 and lose more than 2 million subs by the end of the year. If they don't have the next expansion out in the first half of 2014 they will likely fall to less than 2 mil subscribers by the end of the second quarter.

[Lemmiwink]

The release date of the patch will help to minimize sub loss for the third quarter. It will be 100k or so at most. They will however get hammered in the fourth quarter of 2013 and lose more than 2 million subs by the end of the year. If they don't have the next expansion out in the first half of 2014 they will likely fall to less than 2 mil subscribers by the end of the second quarter.

I got the same belief as you on this. Don't expect a big sub drop, if anything maybe even a little growth. But it will be all downhill from there on without the new expansion fast. Not only do we need the next expansion fast, it needs to be a massive expansion that takes the game to a new level. It needs to be more clear on what segment they are catering to. I mean, they need to stop trying to cater to everyone and agree on a player group and don't flicker back and forth like earlier.