3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[pastar]

Sorry I am on mmo-Champion not Wow-Champion

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Pretty much and why would he make a thread 2 mo away, it's kinda what he does trys to make threads to cause a shit storm

mmo-champ was made for wow hints why 98% of their coverage is wow related lol

[cityguy193]

The difference here is that this dude bought masses of ATVI stock at 12 and 13 dollars a few years back.

Enjoy your games, I'll profit both ways anyway.

its trading at 16.90 atm. Thats pathetic return if by a few years, you mean more than 3
But dont let me ruin your parade of tens of dollars in profit.

[Sharuko]

its trading at 16.90 atm. Thats pathetic return if by a few years, you mean more than 3

ATVI's returns are consistent with the S&P 500 during the last 2 years. It is no where close to being a "pathetic return", in fact, it is really good.

[Grogo]

I am surprised it was that low, I guessed over 1 million originally and that it would be under 5 million by end of year 4th quarter. It is a casual's casual game now that's for sure.

[Peso]

The calm before the storm. Q4 will be very nasty.

[Sharuko]

The calm before the storm. Q4 will be very nasty.

You also said, they would be at 7 million subs after today's earnings call. So you are no Ms. Cleo.

[Peso]

You also said, they would be at 7 million subs after today's earnings call. So you are no Ms. Cleo.

Subscription numbers are really random look at the past 2 years. It's only a prediction.

[Mawnix]

Subscription numbers are really random look at the past 2 years. It's only a prediction.

I smell excuses. Not saying I disagree with you thinking Q4 will have a larger sub drop, but still.

[Peso]

It's not really thát random.
New patch: Hardly any losses.
'Bad' or old patch: Many losses.

I'm sure sub losses are a little more complicated than you think.

[Deficineiron]

I'm not sure what's so terrible about 181m. I just looked Q3 09/10/11. They were 262m, 282m, and 274m and this was because when the game was 10m-12m subs.

They've lost 35% of their subs and 33% of their revenue from subs in those comparisons. Not sure what the big deal is? The only reason 2012's number was so high is because it included CoD elite which is now free.

----

WoW doesn't really need to have huge profit margins. WoW is a major asset that gives Activision-Blizzard liquidity. So long as it doesn't turn from asset to liability it doesn't really matter if the net revenues are that high.

the big deal, so to speak, is that the cost of operating the game has some fixed elements, such as bandwidth and staffing, and there are only so many savings they are able to realize as a benefit of losing western subs. So instead of 300m in revenue with say 60-70k operating costs + development costs, you are looking at a much lower profit.

I realize it may not be a big deal to you or others, but it is certainly a big deal to Kotick, Morhaime, etc (ever look at morhaime's incentive package?).

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The role that investors(shareholders) play in the day to day running of ATVI is vastly over estimated on these forums, it will be the board of ATVI that makes any decisions on the future of WOW and Blizzard.

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What position are they going to regain?

Given the new share structure, it will more or less be Kotick who makes any decisions.

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The difference here is that this dude bought masses of ATVI stock at 12 and 13 dollars a few years back.

Enjoy your games, I'll profit both ways anyway.

are you even beating real inflation at this rate, after taxes?

[Firebert]

are you even beating real inflation at this rate, after taxes?

The difference here is that this dude bought masses of ATVI stock at 12 and 13 dollars a few years back.

its trading at 16.90 atm.

So, between a 30% and 40% increase in trading price, which means unless he bought the ATVI stock between 1999 to 2003, he's definitely made a profit after inflation.

[ringpriest]

Subscription numbers are really random look at the past 2 years. It's only a prediction.

I don't think random is a good way to describe a very real downward trend.

[Deficineiron]

So, between a 30% and 40% increase in trading price, which means unless he bought the ATVI stock between 1999 to 2003, he's definitely made a profit after inflation.

1) taxes
2) say he bot at 12.5 (the average of his prices) - he is up 3.60? this is less than 30% over a 'few' (e.g. more than 2) years, and once again, in the real world, most of us pay taxes.
3) so after taxes, depending on where he is, he might up be 6% annuallized? If you live somewhere REAL inflation (not what some government says it is) is less than 6%, let me know where.

[Sharuko]

the big deal, so to speak, is that the cost of operating the game has some fixed elements, such as bandwidth and staffing, and there are only so many savings they are able to realize as a benefit of losing western subs. So instead of 300m in revenue with say 60-70k operating costs + development costs, you are looking at a much lower profit.

I realize it may not be a big deal to you or others, but it is certainly a big deal to Kotick, Morhaime, etc (ever look at morhaime's incentive package?).

WoW always had a extremely profit margin. It seems to only cost about $4 - 5 million a month to run WoW, which includes salary, hardware support and customer service.

The game maker said it has spent only $200m (~ £110.24m) on upkeep since the game launched in 2004. That $200m figure apparently includes payroll for the entire staff, hardware support, and customer service.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/09...t_upkeep_200m/

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1) taxes
2) say he bot at 12.5 (the average of his prices) - he is up 3.60? this is less than 30% over a 'few' (e.g. more than 2) years, and once again, in the real world, most of us pay taxes.
3) so after taxes, depending on where he is, he might up be 6% annuallized? If you live somewhere REAL inflation (not what some government says it is) is less than 6%, let me know where.

This is besides the point, because ATVI has beat or is on par with the S&P 500 during the last 2 years. Which is considered good.

[Firebert]

2) say he bot at 12.5 (the average of his prices) - he is up 3.60? this is less than 30% over a 'few' (e.g. more than 2) years, and once again, in the real world, most of us pay taxes.

1690/1250 is a 35.2% increase, that's most definitely more than 30%.

3) so after taxes, depending on where he is, he might up be 6% annuallized? If you live somewhere REAL inflation (not what some government says it is) is less than 6%, let me know where.

No True Scotsman Fallacy.

[Deficineiron]

WoW always had a extremely profit margin. It seems to only cost about $4 - 5 million a month to run WoW, which includes salary, hardware support and customer service.



http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/09...t_upkeep_200m/

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This is besides the point, because ATVI has beat or is on par with the S&P 500 during the last 2 years. Which is considered good.

1) in the past have come up with about 60-70m/qtr cost of operating the game, which must be almost entirely bandwidth. no time to go drag out old 10q's now, but in the past atvi was much friendlier with their revenue categories. its there.
2) why would you think matching the spx is good? Who considers this good? if spx is down for the year and atvi is down less, does that mean I did good losing money on atvi? Is benbos a pension fund or a very large hedge fund, where an approx 6% or less annualized post-tax return is considered good, despite the inflation concern that is being ignored in this conversation by one party to it?

[Deficineiron]

1690/1250 is a 35.2% increase, that's most definitely more than 30%.

No True Scotsman Fallacy.

1) last trade on stock is 16.13. old prices help no one. also you need to annualize the return for a minimum of 3 years (a few, he says).
2) I guess I should back up - do you know what inflation and taxes are, and how they relate to REAL rate of return for investments? I guess for simplicity we can keep things in dollars unless benbos wants to claim a forex gain also.

[Firebert]

2) I guess I should back up - do you know what inflation and taxes are, and how they relate to REAL rate of return for investments?

Inflation is the steady depreciation of the value of a currency over time (usually due to "fiscal easing", that is, printing money).

I've ignored taxes because it can vary a lot. Hence why I originally said "he's made a profit after inflation", and not "he's made a profit after taxes and inflation". You also haven't countered my point that you will just flat out deny any figure I give for inflation.

[Sharuko]

I guess they should get kinda worried that their active playerbase in the US and EU is only slightly bigger than GuildWars 2.

GW2 has an active player base of about 100k at the very best estimate. It isn't even in the same league. If anything they should be worried about FFXIV, which is significantly more popular. GW2 is in the same league as Rift and SWTOR. They are non-factors to WoW at the moment.

[Deficineiron]

Inflation is the steady depreciation of the value of a currency over time (usually due to "fiscal easing", that is, printing money).

I've ignored taxes because it can vary a lot. Hence why I originally said "he's made a profit after inflation", and not "he's made a profit after taxes and inflation". You also haven't countered my point that you will just flat out deny any figure I give for inflation.

because you haven't given any figures for inflation. You have no idea what I think real inflation is for the US, where activision is located and where the primary listing for the stock is. If I understand your position, it is than rather than opine on real US inflation rates, you avoid the topic and as a diversion, accuse me of having prejudged your (non-existent) response negatively. You might be surprised if you actually answered. You can claim deflation as well, if you feel this way.