2013-14 NFL thread

[Spectral]

Combine speeds have little to do with speed in pads. If you'd like a comparison, Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40.

People pull Jerry Rice over and over and over as an example of how little combine speeds matter, but the reality is that a couple rare exceptions at the WR position (Boldin being the other) aren't great evidence that combine speeds don't tell us anything. For every Rice that plays faster than his timed speed, there's a dozen guys like Cordrelle Patterson, Marsquise Goodwin, Dante Stallworth that firmly establish their speed in the combine and other track workouts, and it translates on field. Of course, speed isn't all there is to a player, but saying that 40 times have "little to do with speed in pads" is silly. Occasionally, guys play at much different speeds than their workouts, but they're the exception, not the rule.

In the specific case of Wilson vs. Manziel, comparing their raw speed just seems dopey to me. They're both excellent athletes for the position that we can be reasonably confident will make plays with their legs. Neither is a transcendent athlete like a Kaep or Cunningham or Vick that's going to run away from defensive backs in the open field.

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You dont give up on your 2nd round QB after 1 season in the league.

People always say that, but if a team has enough internal information to be comfortable saying that a guy isn't going to be good, I don't really see the point in standing by a bad decision. The track record for guys that have rookie seasons like Geno isn't great. Maybe he'll wind up being good, but there's not really any reason at this point to even believe he can be a league average QB.

[Robbyjawz]

Speaking of Boldin, the Niners just signed him to a two year deal worth 12 million, 9 guaranteed. I think the two year deal works best for the Niners, as it allows him to mentor / help develop the younger WR's they have, and he would be around for a year if Crabtree signs elsewhere after next season.

The Niners also signed secondary coach Ed Donatell to a two year contract. Sweeeeet, I like Donatell. I know he has been interviewed a couple of times as a possibility for a DC for teams.

[Spectral]

Seems fair for both sides, that Boldin deal. The per year price is kind of low, but getting the second year guaranteed (or some roster bonus that makes it nearly as good as a guaranteed second year) works well for Boldin. The 49ers get a reasonable cap figure and a borderline HoF receiver that looks like he still has at least one more very good year in the tank.

[Stommped]

New Lovie Uniforms:

[Spectral]

I wish the Bucs the best of luck in Arena ball this year...

[xskarma]

That uniform is rather fugly tbh. Those orange accents really, euh, "make" it, in terms of being bad.

[draynay]

are they going to wear those every game? whats with the digital clock numbers? is it the fucking 80s? it isn't April 1st yet is it...

[icausewipes]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200...lly-from-49ers


LOL

Breaking news!!! In a blockbuster deal the 9ers trade Kaep to the Raiders for a bottle of anything and a glaze donut.

[Spectral]

That sounds insane, but he is a better player than Flacco. My god did that contract obliterate any kind of reasonable market for QBs.

[xskarma]

That sounds insane, but he is a better player than Flacco. My god did that contract obliterate any kind of reasonable market for QBs.

Untill teams start proving you can win without a decent QB the QB's are going to dictate what they make, pretty much. Maybe Seattle can help start a new trend, back to defense and away from the passing and QB driven league it's been for a while, but that's a long shot.

Most we can hope for is a quick natural selection process starting in the league, wherein teams that overpay for their QB are so limited in other facets of the game that the team can't get anything done and therefor don't succeed. A QB that soaks up so much of the salary cap that there's no room for depth on the team will inevitably doom his team by virtue of his team mates, and especially injury replacements not being able to stand up against better quality players on teams that have spent more on their depth and less on their QB.

We may see a day where teams get the balls to say to their QB, "fine, there's the door, we won't pay you your extortionist salary and doom the team, we'll just roll the dice on a cheap QB from the draft that we can develope cause that's better for the team". We're not there yet, but we might get there if any QB on his second contract starts making $18M+.

[draynay]

I doubt Kaepernick gets an extension before Newton, Newton's contract will probably set the mark for younger-2nd-contract guys, probably they both play their butts off and look for the payday next year, unless they get offered something big enough to make it worth it to avoid the franchise tag.

[Deleted]

I fully expect all these new running QB's to goto the end of their current contracts and then get tagged the following year. The franchise tag is only 16.9mill $ and you don't need to run the risk of them blowing out their knees ala RG3.

[draynay]

That's a big cap hit for teams that are currently competitive, I doubt either organization would want such a big portion of the cap tied up to one guy like that, it'd make more sense to go longer term and be able to keep their defensive cores together for a few years longer.

[Aredyl]

I fully expect all these new running QB's to goto the end of their current contracts and then get tagged the following year. The franchise tag is only 16.9mill $ and you don't need to run the risk of them blowing out their knees ala RG3.

I'm suspecting that it would be cheaper (in the long run) to actually work out a contract deal than to franchise tag him (or even tagging him twice).

Looking at 2015 numbers, the average base salary of the top 5 NFL QBs is $17.5M/year (mostly because Romo restructured for '14 - loading $17M in base for '15).
For '16, it grows to $17.95M/year (which is less than 120% of the previous year).

That's not too far from what Kaep's asking price. Its entirely possible that the 49ers negotiate him down from $18.2 to $17.5 or scale his contract to average $18.2, yet pay him less than $17.5 for the first year. Scaling in guarantees, they could create a contract that gives Kaep what he wants, pay him less than the franchise tag (and save the tag), and limit risks to the first couple of years in the contract.

The real question: is he worth it?

[icausewipes]

.

The real question: is he worth it?

Only qbs worth that are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers.

[Robbyjawz]

I am a Kaepernick supporter, I want to see him playing for the Niners for his career, but only if he starts to show improvement. He is miles better than Alex Smith in my opinion, because he is willing to take risks, the lone time I was ever happy to see Alex Smith as the Niners QB was the divisional playoff game against New Orleans. Kaep could have had the Niners in a second Super Bowl this last season, but he needs to show improvement. If I were the Niners FO I would almost risk just going and keeping him with his current contract, and then extend him / tag him next season if need be. Draft a backup QB to groom, Harbs is good at grooming QBs and if someone like Jimmy Garoppollo is picked up be the Niners, we might be able to do the same exact thing that we did with Kaep and Smith. I want Kaep to succeed, I really do, becuase the kid is talented. However, I also cannot handle that much more heartbreak due to stupid mistakes by the coaches' playcalling or stupid choices on throws.

To answer the question by Aredyl, is he worth it? Right now? No. Could he be? Oh god yes.

[Deleted]

Only qb's worth that are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers.

And P.Manning.

But you're correct otherwise, though the real deal breaker is the fact that the francise tag is only 1 year, thus you limit your exposure to injury, which is something you have to worry about with these run-option quarterbacks, once they are no longer 25 and have taken a bit of beating.

[Aredyl]

I am a Kaepernick supporter, I want to see him playing for the Niners for his career, but only if he starts to show improvement. He is miles better than Alex Smith in my opinion, because he is willing to take risks, the lone time I was ever happy to see Alex Smith as the Niners QB was the divisional playoff game against New Orleans. Kaep could have had the Niners in a second Super Bowl this last season, but he needs to show improvement. If I were the Niners FO I would almost risk just going and keeping him with his current contract, and then extend him / tag him next season if need be. Draft a backup QB to groom, Harbs is good at grooming QBs and if someone like Jimmy Garoppollo is picked up be the Niners, we might be able to do the same exact thing that we did with Kaep and Smith. I want Kaep to succeed, I really do, becuase the kid is talented. However, I also cannot handle that much more heartbreak due to stupid mistakes by the coaches' playcalling or stupid choices on throws.

To answer the question by Aredyl, is he worth it? Right now? No. Could he be? Oh god yes.

I think Garoppollo would be a solid addition to the 49ers. I just wouldn't reach to get him - no earlier than a late 2nd-round pick. They do have other needs to address (CB being the largest imo).

I think they could get good value from Zach Mettenberger, someone I think has 2nd round talent that will probably slip into the mid rounds - would be a good stash behind Kaep. Tajh Boyd would also be an interesting pick for the 49ers that could be available in the mid-rounds. Either way, they do need a backup this year, preferably a college QB that could develop behind Kaep just in case.

[icausewipes]

And P.Manning.

If you like throwing money away to the other team.

[xskarma]

Interesting article about the increased Salary Cap and how it will influence the league, and the coming free agent period. http://grantland.com/features/the-money-pit/

Not sure I like the bit where he says it makes it more unlikely for the Patriots to hang on to Aqib Talib though.