China's military rise erodes American leadership in Asia

[Tennis]

The “rise” of China is based on rapid and sustained Chinese economic growth, but it includes an upgrade of China’s military power made possible by increased wealth and more advanced technology. China is not a military superpower like the United States, but after decades of increasing its military budget and deploying modern weapons systems, China can now challenge the accustomed status quo of America dictating the strategic agenda in the Asia Pacific region. China’s military rise shakes up this status quo in at least five ways.

First, China is pursuing a more assertive foreign policy. After his predecessors tried to avoid looking threatening, President Xi Jinping has apparently decided China is now strong enough to insist on winning its strategic disputes with its neighbors, even at the risk of generating alarm in the region about China’s intentions. Under Xi’s leadership, we have seen military pressure aimed at intimidating Japan into recognizing China’s claim to ownership of the Japanese-occupied Senkaku Islands, confirmation that Beijing is serious about enforcing its unreasonable and extralegal claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, and a Chinese attempt to coerce South Korea into taking down equipment designed to protect against North Korean missiles because Beijing objects to the U.S.-South Korea missile defense cooperation.

Second, the possibility of a military conflict with China is more dangerous to the United States than before. In the 1990s, U.S. forces involved in hypothetical hostilities against Chinese forces in the western Pacific could expect to neutralize Chinese ships and aircraft before they got close enough to target U.S. units. Now, however, a large U.S. naval task force sailing into the region would be subject to strikes from Chinese missiles and torpedoes. This gives China unprecedented deterrence power against certain actions Washington might contemplate. The shift from minimal expected risk of serious human and material losses to substantial risk in the event fighting breaks out makes American peacetime planning more complicated and policymaking more cautious. There is a greater likelihood that U.S. planners will acquiesce to rather than confront sinister Chinese actions.

Third, sustaining U.S. military predominance in the large and distant Asia Pacific region is an increasingly difficult economic burden for Americans. Although difficult to measure precisely, the annual amounts China spends on its military forces have increased at least fivefold from 2000 to 2017. China’s estimated expenditure of about $220 billion this year is dwarfed by America’s $600 billion, but equivalent personnel costs are much lower for the Chinese and their fighting power is concentrated close to their home territory, whereas the U.S. defense budget must support U.S. military activities throughout the world. China’s military budget is three times Russia’s and four times Japan’s. This robust and rising Chinese investment requires the United States to similarly increase its own effort or lose ground. Yet the American military is already under strain trying to maintain its assigned responsibilities, considering the spate of recent U.S. Navy accidents in the Pacific, which suggest that even the current seemingly large U.S. defense budget is inadequate. At the same time, America faces a bloated and unchecked national debt combined with demands for increased spending on critical domestic needs.

Fourth, maintaining the confidence of regional allies and friends in U.S. reliability, leadership and staying power is becoming harder. The United States has been the ultimate enforcer of a liberal regional order. This has meant states could depend on America defending them against an illiberal bully. But with a militarily stronger China acting more assertively to impose its will on its neighbors, and the United States more cautious about taking risky actions that could antagonize China, some regional states may conclude the fading superpower no longer has their back and they should align with the country that is already their largest trading partner. If enough states made this shift, China would become de facto regional leader and the liberal order would end.

Finally, a militarily stronger China worsens preexisting tensions between China and some of its neighbors. China has had military conflicts with Russia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam during the past century. Several other regional states have historically-based fears that China will attempt to dominate them. Perceived military advantage naturally emboldens China to settle old scores. There is little question Beijing would prefer the Sun Zi method of “winning without fighting,” but relative military strength gives China the confidence that under Chinese pressure, opponents will see no viable recourse except backing down. In some cases the Chinese may find adversaries prefer to fight.

Is it worth the rising costs and risks to maintain the postwar U.S. role of strongest strategic actor in the Asia Pacific region? How do we expect China would react to a well-chosen American demonstration of determination to defend the liberal order against Chinese assault, despite the inherent risk? These are the hard questions U.S. policymakers face.

Denny Roy, Ph.D., is a senior fellow focusing on Asia Pacific security issues at the East West Center in Hawaii.

http://thehill.com/opinion/internati...-power-in-asia

Kind of strange if you think about it. The U.S. is spending like what? 4 times more on the military than China? Yet it still isn't enough.

[Allybeboba]

http://thehill.com/opinion/internati...-power-in-asia

Kind of strange if you think about it. The U.S. is spending like what? 4 times more on the military than China? Yet it still isn't enough.

China doesn’t have the worldwide presence that the US does either. No one does.

[Strawberry]

Considering their history with China and how much they abused Chinese people in the past, I think only Japan should be careful how they deal with China. I doubt the Chinese have forgotten.

[Stelio Kontos]

Considering their history with China and how much they abused Chinese people in the past, I think only Japan should be careful how they deal with China. I doubt the Chinese have forgotten.

The Chinese people have always had it rough.

If it wasn't foreigners doing them in, it was their own elites oppressing them.

[Zephyr Storm]

This is why we need our allies in the region, mainly South Korea and Japan, to get their asses in gear and build up their military and fortify the area themselves. They can then handle military matters in the region and not lean on the US so much for support.

[Strawberry]

This is why we need our allies in the region, mainly South Korea and Japan, to get their asses in gear and build up their military and fortify the area themselves. They can then handle military matters in the region and not lean on the US so much for support.

Look at this American hell bent on world domination. The world doesn't belong to you. Especially not Asia. Leave Europé to Europé, Asia to Asia, Middle East to Middle East. Stay in your area and continue bullying Mexico.

[schwarzkopf]

Right now - Trump is doing more to damage the USA and its standing and leadership than any other effect.

[endersblade]

Look at this American hell bent on world domination. The world doesn't belong to you. Especially not Asia. Leave Europé to Europé, Asia to Asia, Middle East to Middle East. Stay in your area and continue bullying Mexico.

Oh you poor, poor simpleton. If only you understood how the world actually works outside of that brainwashed little bubble of yours. Also, it's Europe, not Europé.

[Strawberry]

Oh you poor, poor simpleton. If only you understood how the world actually works outside of that brainwashed little bubble of yours. Also, it's Europe, not Europé.

Work computer automatically change letters. I know very well how it works and how outside forces destabilize entire regions. You're the one living in a bubble.

[Stelio Kontos]

bent on world domination. The world doesn't belong to you. Especially not Asia. Leave Europé to Europé, Asia to Asia, Middle East to Middle East. Stay in your area

To be fair, western Europe hasn't learned that lesson either, and they've been around a lot longer.

[Deleted]

Work computer automatically change letters. I know very well how it works and how outside forces destabilize entire regions. You're the one living in a bubble.

No you don't understand. America is only doing it for the greater good!

[Unhinged]

I would rather USA be the world power anyday over China. Its a shame western greed allowed them into this position

[Gaidax]

US is not what it used to be, its power and influence are waning and their new Clown-In-Chief accelerates the process by spitting in faces of allies.

[ParanoiD84]

US would still destroy them so no worries. How much experience does China have in warfare the last 50 years? Not much after getting destroyed by japan in the Second Sino Japanese War.

[Gaidax]

US would still destroy them so no worries. How much experience does China have in warfare the last 50 years? Not much after getting destroyed by japan in the Second Sino Japanese War.

US won't do shit, everyone is scared shitless of any chance of WWIII and for a good reason, because that war will be fought with sticks and stones on day 2.

Heck, US can't even deal with North Korea and their starved army of slaves and you are fantasizing about it dealing with China.

[ParanoiD84]

US won't do shit, everyone is scared shitless of any chance of WWIII and for a good reason, because that war will be fought with sticks and stones on day 2.

Heck, US can't even deal with North Korea and their starved army of slaves and you are fantasizing about it dealing with China.

Because they would level soul if they did, not very smart now is it? Unless you want it leveled of course.

There is no doubt that the us, japan and south Korea would destroy North Korea its just that alot of people in soul would die if they did.

[Zephyr Storm]

Look at this American hell bent on world domination. The world doesn't belong to you. Especially not Asia. Leave Europé to Europé, Asia to Asia, Middle East to Middle East. Stay in your area and continue bullying Mexico.

Lol, what? That's exactly what I was saying. Leave Asia to Asia. Hence why I said countries like South Korea and Japan need to step it up and take care of shit in their own region instead of always wanting America to do it for them.

Can you even read? Or are you just the world's worst troll?

[Gaidax]

Because they would level soul if they did, not very smart now is it? Unless you want it leveled of course.

Here comes the time where you need courage and gall, I live in a country where our "Seoul" could have been leveled countless times in past and instead of cowering behind walls, what the country did is exactly that - took a hit, but removed the danger permanently, because it's better to set things straight rather than live in fear forever.

In case of North Korea, SK and US literally ran out of time to fuck around, either they deal with it now or accept the fact that NK made a laughing stock out of US "domination" and move on, while SK will forever live in fear of the future.

And as a side note, while I generally view Obama positively, but he fucked up with NK BIG time by giving them the time they needed to snowball into the menace they are now. The whole situation is his doing, basically and now he left that idiot Trump to try and fix this mess in-between his moronic tweets ridiculing and alienating US allies.

[Raakel]

Look at this American hell bent on world domination. The world doesn't belong to you. Especially not Asia. Leave Europé to Europé, Asia to Asia, Middle East to Middle East. Stay in your area and continue bullying Mexico.

Oh you poor, poor simpleton. If only you understood how the world actually works outside of that brainwashed little bubble of yours. Also, it's Europe, not Europé.

Strawberry is correct.

Educate youselfs peeps.

Read this book and research who the author is.

https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessbo...iew+Brzezinski

Accept the facts. It's no YT bullshit.

[PL-Cibo]

Lol, what? That's exactly what I was saying. Leave Asia to Asia. Hence why I said countries like South Korea and Japan need to step it up and take care of shit in their own region instead of always wanting America to do it for them.

Can you even read? Or are you just the world's worst troll?

why should a peaceful country with a completely defensive army (understand what the JSDF is) spend more money because their allies fear they will lose economically? This is the same bullshit that goes down in the NATO right now. Why should europe increase it's spending on military? ah yes I know! the US have financial problems and hope for increased revenue through weapon deals. The USA should take care of their own problems (yes NK is an american problem) not annoy their allies with their problems.