How I predict WoW Classic plays out

[Azerate]

15. You wake up

[Nienor]

Classic in private servers is already much better/fun than retail. I can only imagine how much better it'll be in an official blizzard server without the constant threat of shutting down or the shady gold selling business that's been going on around...

[Tholl]

Classic in private servers is already much better/fun than retail. I can only imagine how much better it'll be in an official blizzard server without the constant threat of shutting down or the shady gold selling business that's been going on around...

Ya, I've been wondering if gold sellers will manage to be a thing again with classic servers up.

Also crossing my fingers for a PvP server without the new QoL change that they are adding to live that allows you to unflag yourself for PvP.

No porting into dungeons/flying is going to create some serious battles in game again, and I can't wait for it.

[Forogil]

"OMG THEY HAVEN'T ADDED NEW CONTENT FOR 3 MONTHS!! I'm going to go play Classic, where the content hasn't changed in 12 years!"

And the contents they added after classic also encourage replay: m+, achievements, transmogs, and weekly rotation of some things so that even without updates there is still different contents. I'm not saying that everyone enjoys that - but I highly doubt that OP's prediction will come true.

[Icechaosss]

I, too, know how Classic WoW will play out!

1. Classic WoW is announced.
2. People make lots of stupid, pointless topics offering 'insight' about Classic WoW
3. End

I saw that coming miles away. And then I have another prediction!

If classic does well - "LUL SEE NEW WOW IS TRASH?"
If it does poorly? - "IT'S BECAUSE OF THE CHANGES THAT BLIZZ MADE/DIDN'T MAKE!"

Personally? I see a lot of initial interest, then it falls off to a more focused group. Numbers wise? Let's say 8 million in the first couple months, cut to about 2 million after a year. If so long.

[Deleted]

Classic in private servers is already much better/fun than retail. I can only imagine how much better it'll be in an official blizzard server without the constant threat of shutting down or the shady gold selling business that's been going on around...

Simple logic explained:
PS is better experience
plus
PS is free
should equal to
PS population > retail population
Right?
No?
Nooooooooo.
Retail population>>>>>>>>>>>PS population.

Now go back to the two arguments that led to the false conclusion for a little fact check.
PS is free = check.
PS is better experience = ...

So the new conclusion: Vanilla type experience is better than retail for a small group of people, far from all.
My prediction:
Classic will have it's peak for about 6 months after it's release. By that time few things will happen:
1. Most of retail players will realize that they cannot manage to maintain two WoW games at the same time and will prefer retail
2. Many Classic player that came from PS will realize that now they are paying for something that they were getting for free before and will also leave
3. Old time players that have quit WoW for good will realize that the magic is gone and this game is not able to bring back their youth. And leave.
4. Other reasons to leave
5. Classic will anchor around 50-100K subs for a couple of years, after that fall into slow decline with no new content added in.

[Morbownz]

I doubt it. I do genuinely think it will have a lifespan for even the most hardcore, these are the player that have been playing it for the last 10 years on private servers. There is a solid community that usually end up rolling on new servers together and creating a competitive pvp/pve environment server, I hope that Blizzard identify this and stagger the release of servers over a period.
I expect mass hype, it's impossible to say how long people will stick it out.

[Aggrophobic]

Here is what I think will happen:

1. WoW Classic is released.
2. Players OVERWHELM the WoW Classic server. There is far MORE interest in WoW Classic than they anticipated. The initial Classic playerbase is something like 65% of the retail playerbase.
3. The zones are congested and packed. It becomes difficult to level simply because you wind up with a queue to kill certain quest mobs.
4. The people who vault ahead of the pack are those who ignore pretty much all quests from 1-25 and just grind. They hit 25+ ahead of everyone else and then get places like Arathi Highlands or Thousand Needles to themselves, which means they can now quest and pull ahead even FASTER.
5. Blizzard decides to take no action regarding congested zones, adopting a policy that "the people wanted a vanilla experience and this is part of it."
6. The Classic playerbase drops as people quit because they won't tolerate congested early zones. However, this is balanced by some people quitting WoW altogether, even retail. So the playerbase drops to something like 50% of retail.
7. After a couple months, WoW Classic begins to settle in. Players adopt a policy of switching to Classic every time there is a content drought in retail.
8. Every time there is a retail content drought, people play Classic and realize that, for some reason, its just more FUN and INTERESTING. They have a reputation in the Classic community to defend and protect. They MATTER. The gear and accomplishments seem to MATTER in a way it does not on retail.
9. With every content drought in retail, Classic actually converts people to exclusive Classic players.
10. 6 months after launch, the Classic population is about 75% the size of the retail population.
11. 9 months to a year after launch the Classic population is roughly the same size as retail.
12. People begin to regularly clear Naxxramas by now, with the PvE content complete, people quit WoW Classic. But thee people also feel retail is somehow inferior and do not return to retail.
13. The WoW Classic population hovers around 80%-90% the size of the retail population.
14. At this point, with the PvE content complete, the WoW Classic server begins a permanent transition into a PvP server. WoW classic becomes exclusively the place to grind rank 14, or play Arathi Basin, WSG, or especially old Alterac Valley all day.

Haha! Yeah, no.
It'll never be close to "80%-90% the size of the retail population" and it will most definitely not be anywhere near thoes numbers after a month or two.

[Dracullus]

1. Lot of people (3-4 millions?) will check Classic servers. Most of them will drop after few hours (I assume they will be free if you have active sub) shouting "what they hell is that".
2. Rest will enjoy their nostalgia trip, some will rush to max.
3. People that rushed will roflstomp all content (depend how it will be gated).
4. Population will stabilize around 300-500k people.
5. Community will call it fail.
6. "Legacy" community will blame Blizzard, because they have changed game, so it's no longer same experience (even if Blizzard won't change anything).
7. The End.

Bonus: J. Allen Brack will release video called: "You thought you do, but you don't" where he is smiling and drinking whiskey.

Don't get me wrong, I like that you'll have your servers. I will try them too (although I would prefer WoTLK to experience old world). But some of you are so detached from reality that it's not even funny. It may be painful when you hit reality.

[arr0gance]

1. Lot of people (3-4 millions?) will check Classic servers. Most of them will drop after few hours (I assume they will be free if you have active sub) shouting "what they hell is that".
2. Rest will enjoy their nostalgia trip, some will rush to max.
3. People that rushed will roflstomp all content (depend how it will be gated).
4. Population will stabilize around 300-500k people.
5. Community will call it fail.
6. "Legacy" community will blame Blizzard, because they have changed game, so it's no longer same experience (even if Blizzard won't change anything).
7. The End.

This is the biggest reason Blizzard was disinterested in Legacy up until this point. No matter what they do, they'll never be able to live up to the nostalgia-dripping lunacy a vocal segment of this community believes in. Even if it's a carbon copy of Vanilla WoW, the fact that it isn't the year 2004 anymore is going to play a major part in how the game is perceived. Worse than that, there is the positively bewildering fact that there are people in this community who actually believe the game will somehow revert to the popularity powerhouse it was when it was released.

Ultimately, it's a "damned if they do," and "damned if they don't" scenario... I personally don't believe the risks outweigh the possibility of recapturing lightning in a bottle twice; it'll be interesting to see how everything pans out but I have extreme reservations it will result in anything positive.

Best case scenario, Legacy lays the groundwork for whatever becomes of WoW once Blizzard announces another MMO to replace it.

[hulkgor]

4. Population will stabilize around 300-500k people.
5. Community will call it fail.

Those 2 don't go together.

Anything around 25k~ recurrent players would be awesome. And you're claiming a 'low number' between 300-500k would be seen as a fail? Laughable dude.

[Phuongvi]

If there's no gold sellers and a pile of dead body in Org making the url for the website it will ruin the Vanilla experience.

[arkanon]

Ya, I've been wondering if gold sellers will manage to be a thing again with classic servers up.

Also crossing my fingers for a PvP server without the new QoL change that they are adding to live that allows you to unflag yourself for PvP.

No porting into dungeons/flying is going to create some serious battles in game again, and I can't wait for it.

Just in case you or anyone else hasn't figured this out, they are not changing pvp servers, they are removing them. completely. all servers are becoming pve. its just that they framed it in such a clever way, that people didn't quite realize.

[Everwake]

Here is what I think will happen:

1. WoW Classic is released.
2. Players OVERWHELM the WoW Classic server. There is far MORE interest in WoW Classic than they anticipated. The initial Classic playerbase is something like 65% of the retail playerbase.
3. The zones are congested and packed. It becomes difficult to level simply because you wind up with a queue to kill certain quest mobs.
4. The people who vault ahead of the pack are those who ignore pretty much all quests from 1-25 and just grind. They hit 25+ ahead of everyone else and then get places like Arathi Highlands or Thousand Needles to themselves, which means they can now quest and pull ahead even FASTER.
14. At this point, with the PvE content complete, the WoW Classic server begins a permanent transition into a PvP server. WoW classic becomes exclusively the place to grind rank 14, or play Arathi Basin, WSG, or especially old Alterac Valley all day.

These four points are for sure correct.

[Forogil]

14. At this point, with the PvE content complete, the WoW Classic server begins a permanent transition into a PvP server. WoW classic becomes exclusively the place to grind rank 14, or play Arathi Basin, WSG, or especially old Alterac Valley all day.

And world PvP will be dead, since people will either level on PvE-servers - or on a faction-exclusive PvP-server. (Assuming it is 1.12 with cross-realm bgs.)

- - - Updated - - -

Just in case you or anyone else hasn't figured this out, they are not changing pvp servers, they are removing them. completely. all servers are becoming pve. its just that they framed it in such a clever way, that people didn't quite realize.

Well, we realized but didn't want to tell the others.

[mich4el]

Arathi Highlands is for level 32+
Cant trust a person who doesn't know what he is talking about

[alduron]

Here is what I think will happen:

1. WoW Classic is released.
2. Players OVERWHELM the WoW Classic server. There is far MORE interest in WoW Classic than they anticipated. The initial Classic playerbase is something like 65% of the retail playerbase.
3. The zones are congested and packed. It becomes difficult to level simply because you wind up with a queue to kill certain quest mobs.
4. The people who vault ahead of the pack are those who ignore pretty much all quests from 1-25 and just grind. They hit 25+ ahead of everyone else and then get places like Arathi Highlands or Thousand Needles to themselves, which means they can now quest and pull ahead even FASTER.
5. Blizzard decides to take no action regarding congested zones, adopting a policy that "the people wanted a vanilla experience and this is part of it."
6. The Classic playerbase drops as people quit because they won't tolerate congested early zones. However, this is balanced by some people quitting WoW altogether, even retail. So the playerbase drops to something like 50% of retail.
7. After a couple months, WoW Classic begins to settle in. Players adopt a policy of switching to Classic every time there is a content drought in retail.
8. Every time there is a retail content drought, people play Classic and realize that, for some reason, its just more FUN and INTERESTING. They have a reputation in the Classic community to defend and protect. They MATTER. The gear and accomplishments seem to MATTER in a way it does not on retail.
9. With every content drought in retail, Classic actually converts people to exclusive Classic players.
10. 6 months after launch, the Classic population is about 75% the size of the retail population.
11. 9 months to a year after launch the Classic population is roughly the same size as retail.
12. People begin to regularly clear Naxxramas by now, with the PvE content complete, people quit WoW Classic. But thee people also feel retail is somehow inferior and do not return to retail.
13. The WoW Classic population hovers around 80%-90% the size of the retail population.
14. At this point, with the PvE content complete, the WoW Classic server begins a permanent transition into a PvP server. WoW classic becomes exclusively the place to grind rank 14, or play Arathi Basin, WSG, or especially old Alterac Valley all day.

Disagree with #6 (the people quitting current content part, and lulz "retail") and #8-#13, the rest seem right.

[Gandrake]

I think that's pretty ambitious. Vanilla is a very unique type of game. I don't think it would be until we had a Wrath of the Lich King type of server that this kind of effect would start to take place.

But in many ways, I don't think you are wrong. I never played vanilla, I started playing the game at the tail end of the Burning Crusade. But even then, the game was not massively different from Vanilla and the game had a very certain appeal to it. You didn't just adventure to kill raid bosses - you adventured to run dungeons with people and complete difficult quests. It really showed you the meaning of the expression "it's about the journey, not the destination". Every day back then was an adventure.

People will act like you're crazy and tell you that your rose tinted goggles are wrapped around your head a little too tight and cutting off your blood circulation, but my best memories of wow aren't of raiding... They were about being in a guild and running out into the middle of buttfuck nowhere to help other people. It used to really feel like an accomplishment to explore the game's content or to run your lowbies through SM or even kill someone ganking them.

Now the game is about raiding. Everything is about raiding. There's no sense of adventure and everything is handed to you. Maybe some people like that, but not me. and I'm damn well not going to do a welfare legendary grind just for the opportunity, the privilege, just to stare at a dragon for 3 hours until it's dead. All of the recent developments to the game in the last, what, 4 years or so? They've done everything they could to turn me away from playing alts =/ I mean now you have to complete a (supposedly much longer than honor grind) grind to unlock pvp abilities and not gear... who's great idea was that? o__O

I'm really looking forward to classic servers and think it would be funny if things happen as you say, but I don't really care about all that. I'm just excited to play the game that I know and love again.

[Devilyaki]

Or the 100 loud people will log in and wonder why the server is so dead while everyone else is playing the new expansion.

[brigada]

I predict most players will have quit anyway when WoW Classic releases in 2020