We're Taking Your President From You Episode III: Flynn Likely Flips

[cubby]

Soooo... President Orrin Hatch? Lol the stress would turn him to dust, he's 83. He might decline to take the oath. Then it's President Tillerson.

Dare to dream. But the GOP would never let both Trump and Pence resign at the same time without voting in replacements. If they still control the Senate, of course. This all coming down in 2019 would be better for the Dems.

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Your side is prefect and the other side is the devil. That is politics.

No, not at all. In this situation there is only one right side.

[wunksta]

Hey remember when I said that Trump was probably lying about firing Flynn because Flynn lied to the FBI?

Well...um...

WH lawyer told Trump that Flynn misled FBI and Pence: report

"Was it the same lawyer?"

No, Dowd is a personal attorney. McGahn is a White House counsel member, and as such, his job is to protect the office of the President -- not the person inside it. It's an important distinction.



McGahn has already testified in front of...um...everyone, including his upcoming Mueller grilling, mostly because McGahn is believed to
a) have ripped the letter Trump wrote about the Trump Tower meeting out of his tiny hands while saying "Dude, what the fuck? You can't admit this!"
and/or
b) written the actual letter which was actually released.
This is likely to enter into the obstruction of justice part of the ongoing investigation. As a reminder, McGahn is White House counsel, not Trump's personal lawyers. There are differences -- which may include lawyer-client confidentiality in these matters. I'll admit, I'm not sure.

Yates also said she didn't discuss any of the FBI investigation. What a pickle.

[Skroe]

Dare to dream. But the GOP would never let both Trump and Pence resign at the same time without voting in replacements. If they still control the Senate, of course. This all coming down in 2019 would be better for the Dems.

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No, not at all. In this situation there is only one right side.

Another reason.

If Dem's retake the house, the removing Pence means President Pelosi. Republicans would never go for that alone, regardless of Trump.

I'd love for Pence to do hard time for his part in this, but I'm willing to eat that for now and investigate / prosecute him later to demolish the Trump presidency.

[NYC17]

Another reason.

If Dem's retake the house, the removing Pence means President Pelosi. Republicans would never go for that alone, regardless of Trump.

I'd love for Pence to do hard time for his part in this, but I'm willing to eat that for now and investigate / prosecute him later to demolish the Trump presidency.

A Pence administration would be dead in the water. The idea that Trump could be removed and the country would be ok with a president who was most likely complicit, but at best unimaginably oblivious, is pretty bizarre.

It's even more bizarre that you'd be fine with it.

[Breccia]

A Pence administration would be dead in the water. The idea that Trump could be removed and the country would be ok with a president who was most likely complicit, but at best unimaginably oblivious, is pretty bizarre.

To be fair, Team Trump is claiming they were unimaginably oblivious right now. "Oh Flynn was a lone wolf, oh Manafort didn't do anything, oh Paparoach was just a coffee boy, what Russians, I don't see any Russians, are any of you guys Russians?"

If it came to President Pence, that would not in and of itself halt the investigation -- unless, and this is speculation, Trump dies. That might end the investigation, partly out of respect (ugh) partly out of everyone having a get-out-of-jail card. "Trump made me do it," everyone from Pence to Kushner says, "you can't blame me for following orders". There'd be no point in proceeding, when everyone could claim guiltless loyalty on the stand.

Assuming Trump doesn't die in office, the investigation that leads to him will have to go through Pence first. If Trump is impeached, or more likely resigns before impeachement, but Pence isn't, that's because the investigation didn't have enough on Pence. Yes, you say it's unlikely, but if that happens that's what it means.

[Skroe]

A Pence administration would be dead in the water. The idea that Trump could be removed and the country would be ok with a president who was most likely complicit, but at best unimaginably oblivious, is pretty bizarre.

It's even more bizarre that you'd be fine with it.

You do realize what we're discussing right? Toppling the President of the United States. The leader of the free world. Overturning the results of a Presidential election through a criminal investigation.

You think I'm "okay" with swallowing hard and accepting Pence? I'm not. I was "okay" was Iron Man 2. I'm not "okay" with Pence.

But let's be realistic here. Taking down Donald Trump, which is going to happen, is going to be a historic achievement in and of itself. The chances the conditions are created for a two-fer whereby Pence goes down too in a short period of time? No matter the legal case I don't see it. I think it's too much at once, and Mueller's investigation, while expansive, has finite resources. It will focus on Trump first.

That is NOT to say that Pence can't find himself in serious legal jeopardy in years ahead. I believe he will. But think of the time line: we got a couple of years two wrap these guys up. Do we have time for two? I say we don't. I think we have to choose. And I choose demolishing Trump's Administration.

This is triage, not regenerative therapy.

[cubby]

Another reason.

If Dem's retake the house, the removing Pence means President Pelosi. Republicans would never go for that alone, regardless of Trump.

I'd love for Pence to do hard time for his part in this, but I'm willing to eat that for now and investigate / prosecute him later to demolish the Trump presidency.

I think there are two separate, differing goals with disproportionate priorities.

The first, with absolute moral authority, has to be getting Trump out of office. Either he resigns or is impeached. Him sitting in jail has to be the end-game for everyone who still retains their sanity. If that means we're stuck with President Pence, so be it. But if the GOP retains control of the Senate after midterms, McConnell is smart enough (along with others) to keep both from resigning at/near the same time, leaving the 25th to decide. So, unless something really weird happens, we'll more than likely see President Pence.

Unless, the investigation nabs him along the way, and he is somehow forced to resign. In which case, and I'm just spit-balling here, a GOP controlled Senate will get a new VP in as quickly as possible, to keep, again, the 25th from deciding. However, if the Dems control the Senate if/when Pence resigns, the Dems could delay the hearings enough to see Trump out before a new VP is confirmed.

At that point it just goes nuts, even if it's spelled out in the 25th, because everyone will go nuts regardless of clarity.

The second item is removing the stain that is Trump's administration from the United States. That will take longer, does not have the same moral authority, and is not backed by law or much else to accomplish. People like myself and Skroe might even disagree on this issue, to a certain degree - because at this point it becomes policy rather than morality.

Morality requires Trump to be removed. Policy might ask us to take out his entire administration's stain. Only time will tell.

[Garnier Fructis]

Another reason.

If Dem's retake the house, the removing Pence means President Pelosi. Republicans would never go for that alone, regardless of Trump.

I'd love for Pence to do hard time for his part in this, but I'm willing to eat that for now and investigate / prosecute him later to demolish the Trump presidency.

/vomit
/10char

[Skroe]

I think there are two separate, differing goals with disproportionate priorities.

The first, with absolute moral authority, has to be getting Trump out of office. Either he resigns or is impeached. Him sitting in jail has to be the end-game for everyone who still retains their sanity. If that means we're stuck with President Pence, so be it. But if the GOP retains control of the Senate after midterms, McConnell is smart enough (along with others) to keep both from resigning at/near the same time, leaving the 25th to decide. So, unless something really weird happens, we'll more than likely see President Pence.

Unless, the investigation nabs him along the way, and he is somehow forced to resign. In which case, and I'm just spit-balling here, a GOP controlled Senate will get a new VP in as quickly as possible, to keep, again, the 25th from deciding. However, if the Dems control the Senate if/when Pence resigns, the Dems could delay the hearings enough to see Trump out before a new VP is confirmed.

At that point it just goes nuts, even if it's spelled out in the 25th, because everyone will go nuts regardless of clarity.

The second item is removing the stain that is Trump's administration from the United States. That will take longer, does not have the same moral authority, and is not backed by law or much else to accomplish. People like myself and Skroe might even disagree on this issue, to a certain degree - because at this point it becomes policy rather than morality.

Morality requires Trump to be removed. Policy might ask us to take out his entire administration's stain. Only time will tell.

This is exactly how I see it.

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/vomit
/10char

I want to build a time machine just so I can take Nancy Pelosi from 2002 and introduce her to Nancy Pelosi 2017.

She is the incarnation of power corrupts. I think most Republicans go way overboard and personalize it with her. But Nancy Pelosi 2002 and 2017 are two different people. 2002 wanted to legitimately help people through well meaning, liberal avenues (avenues I disagree with, but perfectly legitimate). 2017 lost herself in her blood fued with Republicans years ago. She justifies fighting Republicans so a primary route to helping people, but if you've watched interviews with her, this is a person who the war, so to speak, has utterly consumed and destroyed.

Pelosi 2002 was a happy warrior. Pelosi 2017 wars because its all she knows.

[NYC17]

You do realize what we're discussing right? Toppling the President of the United States. The leader of the free world. Overturning the results of a Presidential election through a criminal investigation.

You think I'm "okay" with swallowing hard and accepting Pence? I'm not. I was "okay" was Iron Man 2. I'm not "okay" with Pence.

But let's be realistic here. Taking down Donald Trump, which is going to happen, is going to be a historic achievement in and of itself. The chances the conditions are created for a two-fer whereby Pence goes down too in a short period of time? No matter the legal case I don't see it. I think it's too much at once, and Mueller's investigation, while expansive, has finite resources. It will focus on Trump first.

That is NOT to say that Pence can't find himself in serious legal jeopardy in years ahead. I believe he will. But think of the time line: we got a couple of years two wrap these guys up. Do we have time for two? I say we don't. I think we have to choose. And I choose demolishing Trump's Administration.

This is triage, not regenerative therapy.

Pence is part of the triage. You have to treat all of the bullet wounds when you triage, not just the one you don't like the most or is the most obvious. Look at Pence as internal bleeding if you wish. It may very well be "too much at once" from a certain perspective but there's a reason for it. This is unprecedented. This is the consequence of enabling, and acquiesing to a Pence presidency because he's not as bad as Trump, but is still bad and complicit, will just make the problem worse.

You can't leave the country bleeding from a bullet you don't want to address because it's uncomfortable.

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To be fair, Team Trump is claiming they were unimaginably oblivious right now. "Oh Flynn was a lone wolf, oh Manafort didn't do anything, oh Paparoach was just a coffee boy, what Russians, I don't see any Russians, are any of you guys Russians?"

If it came to President Pence, that would not in and of itself halt the investigation -- unless, and this is speculation, Trump dies. That might end the investigation, partly out of respect (ugh) partly out of everyone having a get-out-of-jail card. "Trump made me do it," everyone from Pence to Kushner says, "you can't blame me for following orders". There'd be no point in proceeding, when everyone could claim guiltless loyalty on the stand.

Assuming Trump doesn't die in office, the investigation that leads to him will have to go through Pence first. If Trump is impeached, or more likely resigns before impeachement, but Pence isn't, that's because the investigation didn't have enough on Pence. Yes, you say it's unlikely, but if that happens that's what it means.

You can't leave someone who is complicit in a position of power. You'll just end up making the problem worse. There's no ground swell of support for Pence that would protect him from the backlash. There's also precedent for VP pardoning a former president. Now just imagine if this comes to pass, how Pence would wield that power.

He's gotta go.

[Thekri]

You do realize what we're discussing right? Toppling the President of the United States. The leader of the free world. Overturning the results of a Presidential election through a criminal investigation.

You think I'm "okay" with swallowing hard and accepting Pence? I'm not. I was "okay" was Iron Man 2. I'm not "okay" with Pence.

But let's be realistic here. Taking down Donald Trump, which is going to happen, is going to be a historic achievement in and of itself. The chances the conditions are created for a two-fer whereby Pence goes down too in a short period of time? No matter the legal case I don't see it. I think it's too much at once, and Mueller's investigation, while expansive, has finite resources. It will focus on Trump first.

That is NOT to say that Pence can't find himself in serious legal jeopardy in years ahead. I believe he will. But think of the time line: we got a couple of years two wrap these guys up. Do we have time for two? I say we don't. I think we have to choose. And I choose demolishing Trump's Administration.

This is triage, not regenerative therapy.

There are several options that don't lead to Pence or Pelosi. One is an impeachment or resignation of both POTUS and VPOTUS prior to the representatives from the mid-terms being seated, that leaves President Ryan. Not ideal, he hasn't exactly shown himself as a shining example of unity, but most people will be able to live with that.

Second, and I believe much more likely then a Pence administration, Pence resigns first, the Senate confirms a replacement, then Trump resigns. That is what happened with Nixon and Agnew. Pence is far to implicated in all of this to possibly serve as President, he has to go. I would be stunned if he even attempted it.

[Redwyrm]

Another brick in the wall.

WH lawyer told Trump that Flynn misled FBI and Pence

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/politi...nce/index.html

[Orbitus]

Your side is prefect and the other side is the devil. That is politics.

Considering none of those got anyone indicted or plead guilty? Yeah. Meanwhile Trumpster and his cronies are getting taken down 1 by 1.

[Thekri]

Another brick in the wall.

WH lawyer told Trump that Flynn misled FBI and Pence

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/politi...nce/index.html

Trump's stance is that Comey lied under oath, and that he never pressured Comey to end the Flynn investigation He seems to have admitted that he knew Flynn lied to the FBI, they aren't walking that back yet.

This raises several other important problems for Trump though, including the fact he knew his National Security Advisor lied to the FBI, but didn't fire him for another month, which is when it went public. It is also why the lawyer went with the hail mary shot of trying to dismiss the very concept of obstruction of justice.

One of the problems with having these discussions about Trump is that the narrative doesn't stay static long enough to actually hash out the argument. If we try to press on why he was retaining the National Security Advisor after he knew Flynn lied to the FBI and the VP, the narrative will shift again before we get an answer, and we will all rush off to the next big scandal.

[Breccia]

One of the problems with having these discussions about Trump is that the narrative doesn't stay static long enough to actually hash out the argument.

Admittedly, that is one of the nice things about Trump's tweets being official statements -- which they argued they were. Now, they're public record, and he can't delete those. Even if the narrative changes, there's unremoveable evidence that can be presented in court, the Senate, etc.

Basically, it's impossible to have two different, but correct, versions of events. Claiming to have two, is admission you have lied.

[cubby]

Another brick in the wall.

WH lawyer told Trump that Flynn misled FBI and Pence

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/politi...nce/index.html

The wall Trump will sit behind while in jail? That wall? Please don't tell me your naive enough to think that this puts Trump out of danger.

[Skroe]

Pence is part of the triage. You have to treat all of the bullet wounds when you triage, not just the one you don't like the most or is the most obvious. Look at Pence as internal bleeding if you wish. It may very well be "too much at once" from a certain perspective but there's a reason for it. This is unprecedented. This is the consequence of enabling, and acquiesing to a Pence presidency because he's not as bad as Trump, but is still bad and complicit, will just make the problem worse.

You can't leave the country bleeding from a bullet you don't want to address because it's uncomfortable.

Removing a President is a political act first and foremost. Politics is the art of the policy... a truism that continues to be, well, true.

Do not mistake a simple sober analysis for desire. This country has shown time and again it's political bandwidth *is* limited, which is why I've been saying, as of late, cleaning up Trump-Russia will take a decade or more, and will likely be passed off to a successor for Mueller in a couple of years, and that person will pass it off. I can even see it becoming an institutionalized de-foreign interference counter intelligence / law enforcement op in general.

I want Pence to go down. I think Trump will go down in mid-to-late 2018 to mid-to-late 2019. I do not see Pence going down before or after that. "Before" there is not enough time, after it is the 2020 election.

I think Trump will be removed, Pence will lose the 2020 election surrounded by a mounting legal problem regarding Trump-Russia, and then Pence will face justice after he is out of office.

These investigations take time. I don't think we'll see two traitors fall inside of two years because of that alone.

[Redwyrm]

The wall Trump will sit behind while in jail? That wall? Please don't tell me your naive enough to think that this puts Trump out of danger.

Anything but. I think this is another link in the obstruction case a blind monkey could put together against Trump.

[cubby]

Anything but. I think this is another link in the obstruction case a blind monkey could put together against Trump.

Lol, gotcha - apologies for the misunderstanding. And lol re monkey trial - that could have several great meanings if one were so inclined.

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And in an exciting development, the Trump "legal" team is now taking the Nixon stance - that the President is above the law and therefore cannot be guilty of Obstruction.

What a jolly happy time.

[Thekri]

Removing a President is a political act first and foremost. Politics is the art of the policy... a truism that continues to be, well, true.

Do not mistake a simple sober analysis for desire. This country has shown time and again it's political bandwidth *is* limited, which is why I've been saying, as of late, cleaning up Trump-Russia will take a decade or more, and will likely be passed off to a successor for Mueller in a couple of years, and that person will pass it off. I can even see it becoming an institutionalized de-foreign interference counter intelligence / law enforcement op in general.

I want Pence to go down. I think Trump will go down in mid-to-late 2018 to mid-to-late 2019. I do not see Pence going down before or after that. "Before" there is not enough time, after it is the 2020 election.

I think Trump will be removed, Pence will lose the 2020 election surrounded by a mounting legal problem regarding Trump-Russia, and then Pence will face justice after he is out of office.

These investigations take time. I don't think we'll see two traitors fall inside of two years because of that alone.

I could agree, if Trump and Pence were tied to separate investigations. They are not, they are part of the same thing. Anything that points at Trump also points at Pence, right now the investigation is tied much more directly to Pence then to Trump. I think the opposite is more likely, where Mueller takes down Pence, but Congress fails to impeach Trump.

I don't think Mueller can indict Trump, I know that is an iffy legal question, but I think it will have to be the House that does that. Mueller can take down the Vice President though, and I think it is likely he will. He will give anything he has on Trump to the Congressional investigations to feed into an impeachment process, which may fail.

I think if we get rid of Trump, Pence is part of the package, the inverse not so much.