Drop rate statistics for Amanthul's Vision and other Pantheon trinkets

[Elwinga]

how many in the raid already had the pantheon trinket for their main spec?

Though it would be nice to also have the difficulty people killed their first Argus for the week on in these sheets. Very curious if, despite what is said, it matters for the drop rate at all.

Like 13 ppl have it already.

[Enudrom]

It's a statistically significant sample, not the whole dataset. That said, I guess we are seeing blp at work for pantheon, strange that it's not showing for amanthul

I don't think we're seeing BLP, exactly. The drop rate % will increase over time as more people in the raid become ineligible to loot the trinket, but are still adding to the total amount of trinkets dropped per raid, (seems about 1 per 5 people from what I've seen.) A 20% trinket-chance per person seems inline with what they've done recently, and is also suggested by the amount of trinkets dropped from Argus kills with mostly ineligible raid members.

I think it's likely it works on a trinkets per eligible raid members and then the trinkets are distributed to eligible players, who haven't looted a trinket for each of their role types, and then the trinket prefers current loot spec before random offspec.

Some classes - warlock, mages, hunters, rogues - only have 1 trinket to get, and then they only add to everyone's chance to get a trinket. Other classes suck the trinkets from everyone else... getting trinket after trinket for offspecs they don't even play... from my experience.

[Enudrom]

It's a statistically significant sample, not the whole dataset. That said, I guess we are seeing blp at work for pantheon, strange that it's not showing for amanthul

I don't think we're seeing BLP, exactly. The drop rate % will increase over time as more people in the raid have all their trinkets, but are still adding to the total amount of trinkets dropped per raid, (seems about 1 per 5 people from what I've seen.) A 20% trinket-chance per person seems inline with what they've done recently, and is also suggested by the amount of trinkets dropped from Argus kills with mostly ineligible raid members.

I think it's likely it works on a trinkets per eligible raid members and then the trinkets are distributed to eligible players, who haven't looted a trinket for each of their role types, and then the trinket prefers current loot spec before random offspec.

Some classes - warlock, mages, hunters, rogues - only have 1 trinket to get, and then they only add to everyone's chance to get a trinket. Other classes suck the trinkets from everyone else... getting trinket after trinket for offspecs they don't even play... from my experience.

[netherflame]

I refuse to belive amanthul is gonna stay at 0,2% drop rate. Im pretty sure they coded something to raise it, maybe after few weeks i dont know. 0.2% would mean that even after 50 weeks, which is when new Exp is probaly coming out, on average only 10% of the players who killed argus every week for a year straight would have the trinket. It would be pointless for them to even put a trinket like this if it was gonna stay so rare the whole time.

It wouldn't be pointless, its not necessary to kill the bosses, I killed heroic argus week 1 so.......theres no need to make sure every player gets the trinket.

[Nnyco]

i dont know who thought at blizzard it was a good idea to bring back the old legendary super low dropchance, that was literally the worst way legendaries were handled, worse than legion

[Enentari]

i dont know who thought at blizzard it was a good idea to bring back the old legendary super low dropchance, that was literally the worst way legendaries were handled, worse than legion

When you use your brain, it's in fact a pretty good idea (but we, as players, have to think a bit, and not complain for nothing):

1) You don't even need to have this trinket to clean MM (as the world first race shows you, and as many guilds shows and will show us).
2) Each week, more and more of your roster will get theirs, to a point in wich every member have one.
3) You loot a +5 ilv on each Argus first weekly kill, after week 1 kill.
4) These trinkets, Aman'thul apart, are absolutely useless outside Antorus.

That means, it's a natural and gradual boost for every people who have the trinket (and we will ALL have it), and every roster, over time (a dps boost, a heal boost, and a tanking boost). You start understanding my point? That's basically a gradual nerf to the raid made by Blizz, without having to directly nerf the raid itself.

I don't have Eonar's compassion yet, and I don't really care^^ I'll have it when it's decent to equip as a rsham, thanks to the +5 weekly boost.

The only bad point is if you have many rerolls, but nobody forced you to have many rerolls, and you had already many things to do on them^^

[Puri]

I don't think we're seeing BLP, exactly. The drop rate % will increase over time as more people in the raid have all their trinkets, but are still adding to the total amount of trinkets dropped per raid, (seems about 1 per 5 people from what I've seen.) A 20% trinket-chance per person seems inline with what they've done recently, and is also suggested by the amount of trinkets dropped from Argus kills with mostly ineligible raid members.

Why would the drop rate increase over time if there was no BLP? You read how the data is acquired? People who got the trinket are no longer in the sample size, only people who did not receive a trinket yet remain in. So if the percentage significantly increases (here from ~17% to 20%, which is an increase of 18%), then it means it gets more likelier to receive a trinket each week, aka BLP.

[Enudrom]

Why would the drop rate increase over time if there was no BLP? You read how the data is acquired? People who got the trinket are no longer in the sample size, only people who did not receive a trinket yet remain in. So if the percentage significantly increases (here from ~17% to 20%, which is an increase of 18%), then it means it gets more likelier to receive a trinket each week, aka BLP.

The likelihood of getting a trinket increases as more people have their trinkets and aren't included in the roll for who gets a trinket, but still contribute to the amount of trinkets dropped in the raid, as I said a paragraph below that.

It's possible that I'm wrong and its not a 20% trinket chance per eligible person, and just a flat amount for each person, possibly increasing with BLP. To know for certain if BLP exists, people who have gotten trinkets, but who can still get trinkets for their offspecs, (not affected by BLP,) would also have to be tracked.

The "drop rate" will continue to increase until 100% drop rate - when everyone in the raid already has all of their trinkets except for the last few people in the raid. The worst thing about this system is that it is equally likely for someone to get a second trinket for their offspec than for someone to get their first trinket for their main spec, (from my anecdotal experience.)

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I think this is why some guilds / groups make semi-pugs to do normal Argus and include only pugs who have their trinkets already.

At this point it maybe hard to tell which case is correct, but in the weeks ahead it will be obvious if all people in the raid who need a trinket get one on their first kill.

[vsb]

If it was 20% per person, our guild would have received 6 trinkets last time we killed Argus. We got exactly zero with thirty men in the raid. I think it's personal loot rolled independently from other people.

[Puri]

The likelihood of getting a trinket increases as more people have their trinkets and aren't included in the roll for who gets a trinket, but still contribute to the amount of trinkets dropped in the raid, as I said a paragraph below that.

No, I think you don't understand the data yet.
He tracked 10448 people, 1776 got the drop in the first week: So about 17% of the tracked people received a trinket.
For the next week he removes those lucky people from the pool, so only 8672 remain.
8134 are killing the endboss in this week, and 1409 of those people got a trinket, which again is 17%
For the third week, he takes those 8134 and removes the 1409 people from the sample, so he only tracks 6725.
From those 6725 6345 kill Argus this week. If it was a constant drop chance (17%), you would expect around ~1080 people to get the trinket. But this week he tracks 1338 people to get the trinket, which is a significant increase to 20%.
Next week he tracks the remaining 5007 players. But no matter how small this number gets (unless pass under a statistical relevant sample size which would less than 1000 players considering a valid range of the drop chance is 0-100%) it will never get automatically higher unless the chance in fact increases each week, aka blp.

[Sunlighthell]

i dont know who thought at blizzard it was a good idea to bring back the old legendary super low dropchance, that was literally the worst way legendaries were handled, worse than legion

It's not old system. It's new total BS system. In old system ML could give item to specific player, in this new system twink or someone to whom this trinket is useless like rogue can get it.

[MrExcelion]

No, I think you don't understand the data yet.
He tracked 10448 people, 1776 got the drop in the first week: So about 17% of the tracked people received a trinket.
For the next week he removes those lucky people from the pool, so only 8672 remain.
8134 are killing the endboss in this week, and 1409 of those people got a trinket, which again is 17%
For the third week, he takes those 8134 and removes the 1409 people from the sample, so he only tracks 6725.
From those 6725 6345 kill Argus this week. If it was a constant drop chance (17%), you would expect around ~1080 people to get the trinket. But this week he tracks 1338 people to get the trinket, which is a significant increase to 20%.
Next week he tracks the remaining 5007 players. But no matter how small this number gets (unless pass under a statistical relevant sample size which would less than 1000 players considering a valid range of the drop chance is 0-100%) it will never get automatically higher unless the chance in fact increases each week, aka blp.

Yea, was gonna say, I like the way hes doing it, and appreciate him taking the time to get a rough idea, but I do think the sample size is gonna get too small eventually

[Paulosio]

My guild got it's 1st Aman'thul's today. Our DK tank got it.

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People are theorycrafting that it's affected by bad luck protection, and some believe you get a better chance once you have all the other trinkets for your specs (sorry Druids)

Would be a bit weird if it was affected by having other trinkets for your specs when many classes only have 1 pantheon trinket (hunters, mages, locks, rogues etc). I don't believe Blizzard would intentionally make such a dumb decision... Of course it's possible they could have done it by mistake.

[Puri]

Yea, was gonna say, I like the way hes doing it, and appreciate him taking the time to get a rough idea, but I do think the sample size is gonna get too small eventually

Well, it's still good enough for at least five more weeks, and depending on the outcome we might clearly see a tendency. When next week 24% get the trinket, and the following week 28%, then we know for sure there is BLP. Whereas when next week only 17% get the trinket it would rather indicate there is no BLP and the 20% this week was just high deviation.

[Deleted]

Yea, was gonna say, I like the way hes doing it, and appreciate him taking the time to get a rough idea, but I do think the sample size is gonna get too small eventually

You can start making decent statistical inferences starting with sample of 30, as long as it is representative.

I know, boggles the mind....

[Deja Thoris]

You can start making decent statistical inferences starting with sample of 30, as long as it is representative.

I know, boggles the mind....

Bolded the bullshit part for you.

[Deleted]

If it was 20% per person, our guild would have received 6 trinkets last time we killed Argus. We got exactly zero with thirty men in the raid. I think it's personal loot rolled independently from other people.

It's 20% every time you roll the dice.

[vsb]

It's 20% every time you roll the dice.

That's what's called a personal loot. When mode is on loot master, you'll always get guaranteed drops and one more possible drop if raid size allows.

[dreamdaddy]

I wonder if the quality of the non-ATW trinkets will turn to legendary when they reach ilvl 1000...

[Deleted]

Bolded the bullshit part for you.

That’s the science of statistics, I’m sorry you can’t come to terms with it.