Climate change to increase number of asylum seekers

[Techno-Druid]

(Source)

Weather-induced conflicts in developing countries spill over to developed countries through asylum applications. One approach to estimating the future impacts of climate change is to look at the effects of weather fluctuations. These transient shocks can be interpreted analytically as randomly distributed treatments applied to countries around the world. Missirian and Schlenker analyzed the relation between these localized shocks to agriculture and applications by that country's migrants for asylum in the European Union. When temperatures in the source country deviated from a moderate optimum around 20°C that is best for agriculture, asylum applications increased. Thus, the net forecast is for asylum applications to increase as global temperatures rise.

International negotiations on climate change, along with recent upsurges in migration across the Mediterranean Sea, have highlighted the need to better understand the possible effects of climate change on human migration—in particular, across national borders. Here we examine how, in the recent past (2000–2014), weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union, which averaged 351,000 per year in our sample. We find that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20°C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming. Holding everything else constant, asylum applications by the end of the century are predicted to increase, on average, by 28% (98,000 additional asylum applications per year) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5 and by 188% (660,000 additional applications per year) under RCP 8.5 for the 21 climate models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP).

This could definitely be troubling for the developed world.

I would if a possible solution for this could involve a mix of humanitarian aid and genetically modified crops.

[kasuke06]

so they're saying migrants are incoming because of climate change, not war now?

didn't know it being a little chilly at night was worse than getting your house blasted to bits.

[Techno-Druid]

so they're saying migrants are incoming because of climate change, not war now?

didn't know it being a little chilly at night was worse than getting your house blasted to bits.

Desertification will cause crop failure in many North African and Sahel countries which will likely cause more people to travel northward.

[Acidbaron]

so they're saying migrants are incoming because of climate change, not war now?

didn't know it being a little chilly at night was worse than getting your house blasted to bits.

I could make some witty comment about how the US education system and industries based around informing people are failing, but you displayed this rather well, why make a fool of someone already dancing around in a clown suit?
This has been know for a while, the increased droughts , the failed crops will lead to people move elsewhere as a matter of survival not wealth not warmth, food. This shortage will also be felt elsewhere, i believe even in the US there will be crops that continue to fail, even with all the resources in the world not everything can be saved.

On the political side of it all, this is why the EU is starting to speak of a "marshal plan" for african nations, smart people, people that see the risk this poses compared to few populist politicians thinking immigration can be prevented by acting tough. If this plan goes anywhere is too be seen, since we have to deal with foolish governments such as Poland and Hungary and now recently Austria, although the latter doesn't seem to be removed that far from reality yet. However Poland is facing serious charges and consequences and i believe Hungary will also, since being part of the Christian democrat faction won't continue to save the PM from Hungary.

But make no mistake if African nations simply stop and promote migration, yes we have a serious issue if that happens. Nothing compared to the immigration from wars right now. So time for more intelligent politicians and less polarizing personalities feeding on the attention of even less intelligent folk, folk best to left farming potatoes somewhere in the fields.

[Katie N]

Isn't that just for people fleeing persecution and not for people looking for a better life?

[JohnBrown1917]

Isn't that just for people fleeing persecution and not for people looking for a better life?

No, refugees are from countries that, one one form or another, are un-livable.

[Grimbold21]

This isn't particularly new, with the case of Climate change resulting in the loss of coastal territories, those people move somewhere else.

[Nasuuna]

It is important we plan ahead not yell *Hey come on over* as well.

[Katie N]

No, refugees are from countries that, one one form or another, are un-livable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...us_of_Refugees

"A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.."

Doesn't seem to be about making a better life for yourself but fleeing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion or social group.

[Scottyjscizzle]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...us_of_Refugees

"A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.."

Doesn't seem to be about making a better life for yourself but fleeing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion or social group.

Well I guess you could argue they are being offhandedly targeted for their social group since they sure didn't fuck the climate as hard as the first world did. Hard to bash someone "just looking for a better life!" when their life was fucked over thanks to other counties deciding they want to spend a lifetime arguing over if climate change is real or if they can keep bathing in gas money.

[Graeham]

I thought this sort of thing was precisely why so much money has been thrown at those regions over the last few decades? A lot of people are - quite rightly - going to be very bitter if it turns out that all that foreign aid proved to be a waste of money and that the recipients expect to be brought over to Europe or America.

[Katie N]

Well I guess you could argue they are being offhandedly targeted for their social group since they sure didn't fuck the climate as hard as the first world did. Hard to bash someone "just looking for a better life!" when their life was fucked over thanks to other counties deciding they want to spend a lifetime arguing over if climate change is real or if they can keep bathing in gas money.

How are they targeted for their social group when it's nature changing that causes it?

[JohnBrown1917]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...us_of_Refugees

"A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.."

Doesn't seem to be about making a better life for yourself but fleeing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion or social group.

Or natural disasters.
But are you just going to continue with the semantics or actually discuss the topic?

[Katie N]

Or natural disasters.

Doesn't say in the definition.

[JohnBrown1917]

Doesn't say in the definition.

Ok, so sementics it is. You linked a treaty, not the dictionary.

climate refugees are a thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_migrant
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/refugee

[Aggrophobic]

Isn't that just for people fleeing persecution and not for people looking for a better life?

Starvation forces people to take drastic steps in order to survive.

[Katie N]

Ok, so sementics it is. You linked a treaty, not the dictionary.

climate refugees are a thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_migrant

The only thing that matters is the laws of the country they come to. A dictionary doesn't make them recognized as refugees, fitting criteria established by law does.

[Azadina]

How can this be? Trump confirmed climate change to be Chinese hoax.

[JohnBrown1917]

The only thing that matters is the laws of the country they come to. A dictionary doesn't make them recognized as refugees.

That is not what this about... They are refugees and they will flee, whether you like it or not is not relevant, and countries can still decide to accept them as refugees.

[Katie N]

That is not what this about... They are refugees and the will flee, whether you like it or not is not relevant.

They are not refugees unless they fit the criteria in laws.