Democrats flip a deep-Republican Missiouri state House seat in a special election

[johnhoftb]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...ecial-election

TL;DR: Missouri state House District 97 (just southwest of St. Louis); went for Trump 61-33; went to Democrat Mike Revis 51-48.

Democrats have just pulled of their second upset of 2018. A Republican legislative seat in Missouri flipped from red to blue on Tuesday night as Democrat Mike Revis won House District 97. This district went heavily for Trump, giving him a 61-33 margin in 2016.

This seat had been in GOP hands for at least eight years, but on Tuesday, Revis captured it with a 52-48 victory—a massive 31-point swing from the 2016 presidential results.

Tuesday’s win in Missouri is far from the first Democratic flip in a red state this cycle, though. In 2017, Democrats picked up four seats in special elections in Oklahoma and another in Georgia. And just a couple of weeks ago, Democrats flipped a historically Republican seat in Wisconsin.

Overall, this victory is Democrats’ 35th red-to-blue state legislative flip this cycle, compared to just four for Republicans. The GOP’s ongoing inability to hold on to formerly safe seats is terrible news for the party in November’s elections at every level of the ballot. The reckoning is here, and no Republican is safe.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

Democrats aren't doing that well in polling but this gives me hope...

[Milchshake]

Democrats aren't doing that well in polling but this gives me hope...

You mean, "aren't doing well in one outlier poll". And still outpreforming in all the elections thus far.

[Omega10]

November is still a long way to go. But this is a hopeful sign

[Kasierith]

Democrats seem to be doing well on the platform of safe, no drama normal governance, and presenting themselves as just wanting to get everything back in order compared to the Republicans throwing their toys around.

10 bucks they still fuck it up in the midterm elections somehow.

[Wyrt]

Wow, it's almost like having a completely dysfunctional federal government has a negative impact on the party that controls all 3 branches of government.

[Thekri]

Democrats seem to be doing well on the platform of safe, no drama normal governance, and presenting themselves as just wanting to get everything back in order compared to the Republicans throwing their toys around.

10 bucks they still fuck it up in the midterm elections somehow.

Safe no drama governance sounds really nice right now... *sigh*

Seriously I hate the majority of democratic policies, but I am still pulling for them hard now. So done the complete collapse of GOP morality.

[Ghostpanther]

It was a good win for the democrats. He sounds like a more sensible and moderate democrat however. And do not forget the Republicans there still won 3 out of the 4 special election seats. They still maintain a super majority in the state house.

[cubby]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...ecial-election

TL;DR: Missouri state House District 97 (just southwest of St. Louis); went for Trump 61-33; went to Democrat Mike Revis 51-48.

First of all, this is awesome. Those of you asking about how the Dems are polling over, doesn't matter. Never did. It's local elections in 2018 that are going to be key.

Second, the Dems are now 2-0 for red state seats going blue in 2018. Expect a LOT more of this happening - and a much bigger surge in Nov.

Finally, what did the GOP Rep win by in 2016? I know Cheeto won with a 61-33 margin but . . . .

- - - Updated - - -

It was a good win for the democrats. He sounds like a more sensible and moderate democrat however. And do not forget the Republicans there still won 3 out of the 4 special election seats. They still maintain a super majority in the state house.

That is a very good point to remember.

[BrerBear]

Across the 4 very red districts, the swing last night was as follows:

#HD97: +31% net swing towards Dem [& Dem pick-up]
#HD39: +19%
#HD129: +25%
#HD144: +53% (!)

It's true that the Dems only won 1 of those.
It's also true that many races across the country are much closer than these were historically.

There's been a narrative recently that the Dems might not swing Congress because their votes are concentrated in Democratic areas. But this is yet another counter example that the enthusiasm gap is the key change since Trump's election. Republicans are not nearly as motivated to vote as angry Dems are, and that can swing a lot of tight districts.