Mafia 100: Clash of 100 Threads!!

[Marack]

UNVOTE
VOTE: Reticence

Vote on Syriane was going nowhere.

If I'm to trust Graeham,
-Lelly didn't do anything or get visited N1/N2 so not willing to vote here.
-Ret visited pistol, Crissi/Dyra protected, nobody died

Holes in people arguments around Virothe visiting dead people, so currently not willing yo vote here.

Danner seems off to me.
Not sure if I can trust Dyra yet.
@Syriane do you have any input today? Dyra has made 1 post, other then hey I'm here, and it has more content/discussion then you've had in the past 2 gamedays.

[Reticence]

... really.

[Largehorn]

Reticence (4): Syriane (#439), Danner (#522), Cruelle (#525), Marack (#541)

Virothe (3): Reticence (#481), Graeham (#490), Senna1251 (#504)
Lellybaby (3): Robozerim (#464), Razamith (#477), PistolPink (#480)

Syriane (1): Marack (#473)
Marack (1): SatsuBL (#521)

It is now Day 3. The deadline for Day 3 is Saturday February 10 at 19:00 Eastern.

With 17 players alive, it takes 9 to lynch.
https://countingdownto.com/countdown/deadline-for-day-3-countdown-clock

[Deleted]

Marack, the issue here is that believing Graeham also means that you can't believe Dyra. Graeham only saw Ret visit me, not Crissi. Which means that Crissi didn't protect me from whatever Ret wanted to do to me.

[Deleted]

First I'm going to post up my thoughts from my analysis of the game so far:

Celtic209 - Terrible activity and voting record. Don't know why you guys haven't lynched this guy before now!

Cruelle - Claims Super Duper Swimmer [drowning](#323) - Visited N1

Danner - Claims Super Duper Outlaw Biker [Lug wrench](#303). [Does this make Danner a recruitable VT RE: Morpheus role?]

Dyra - Gets a pass as Crissi left/Dyra joined. BPV is popped

Graeham - Says he's not aligned with Virothe (#9). Graeham says dog lovers are clearly scum (MUST LYNCH! #36). Weird post (#170)

Kryllian - seems to have legit believed Blood Foxes One-Shot Day Cop claim [Where's the critical thought?](#139). Trying to paint suspicion on Robo for his train disappearing (Danner/Raza dropped off) (#182)

Lellybaby - Votes Robo (#214)[Why???]. Kill the SKs (#373). Meta-gaming (#442)

Marack - Takes note of Graeham's initial vote (#18). Avoids taking a stance on A-Sayo (#147). Weird post (#260)

PistolPink - mixologist? (#98). Good logic in (#146). Post seems odd (#222). Pushing Raza hard (#245). Taregtted Reti N1 as per Graeham's claims (#307). Confirms Graeham's powers (#341)

Razamith - Claimed Quiz Master - Claims Robo is innocent (#477)

Reticence - Targetted Pistol N1 as per Graeham's claim (#307).

Robozerim - Mentions Lynchers (#209).Vote analysis (#463)

SatsuBL - Good post (#200)

Senna1251 - Displays some good logic (#125). Catches A-Sayo's recruitment advertisement (#302) Analysis post (#308 & #311)

Strikered Calims to be a role from D&D game - Makes good points for a Day 1 lynch (#97). Claims Cruelle's role is legit (#493)

Syriane - Newbie player. Info Post (#112). Think Satsu saying Syriane is innocent, proves Satsu's innocence. [Terrible Logic](#116)

Virothe - Visited both dead people (Different kill methods

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Eh, I would do it if I suspected I would have gotten tracked to them in hopes that I could counter it with a preemptive claim that's true. But I really didn't kill either of them, if I had the ability to kill I wouldn't kill them this early in a game either.

Lora and Blood are Late game gods, they build up really good shit and start dumping late game and mostly coast by on fluff peaces till they break out the hammer. But at that point it takes A LOT for people to be willing to trust them.... Especially Blood since they are so aggressive it generally hurts their credibility even if nothing else has.

Real threats in early game are You, Ret, Danner, Large, Listo, Crissi, I've seen Senna a few times be really good at pushing early.

It's my same reasoning for almost never killing Robo till n3-n4 because he's late game as well.

It's actually a pretty big mistake by scum to kill them off early and allow for Ret and Danner to keep on since they tend to garner a lot of town trust rapidly.

Now, I know you're gonna say "That's all well and good but blah blah blah you still could have done X" ya I know, and I already said I got nothing right now to prove my role or to prove my innocence.

Actually that makes really good sense. And as previously mentioned by Marack your two targets died from different kill methods, which gives you points in your favour

Thanks!

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UNVOTE
VOTE: Reticence

Vote on Syriane was going nowhere.

If I'm to trust Graeham,
-Lelly didn't do anything or get visited N1/N2 so not willing to vote here.
-Ret visited pistol, Crissi/Dyra protected, nobody died

Holes in people arguments around Virothe visiting dead people, so currently not willing yo vote here.

Danner seems off to me.
Not sure if I can trust Dyra yet.
@Syriane do you have any input today? Dyra has made 1 post, other then hey I'm here, and it has more content/discussion then you've had in the past 2 gamedays.

Just because people didn't leave their house doesn't mean they are scum!

[Reticence]

Crissi/Dyra protected

This has yet to be properly claimed or verified, per her post:

Apparently Crissi rather heroically leapt out in front of either Lelly or Pistol N1 and got hit.

The rest of my train is highly suspect. Syriane is completely ignoring me, Danner's vote was based on a mistake and who knows what Cruelle is doing.

Bad Marack. Bad.

Just because people didn't leave their house doesn't mean they are scum!

I assume you meant "aren't"?

[Deleted]

I'd actually argue that NOT leaving your house this game is fairly sus.

[Deleted]

So thoughts on my analysis:

I pretty much believe everyone more than not right now (which is a dangerous place to be in!)

I don't like Pistol and Reti visiting each other on N1. I understand it but I dont like it

I've also noted that with a lot of people claiming powers, we have way to many people claiming powers (that could be town).

I still don't like the Town Survivor Serial Killers. 1) They could lie about their kill method and we wouldn't know about it 2) I believe they are this games version of a VT and so are recruitable (and we killed the guy who would make them not recruitable) 3) Everything comes in 3s

I don't like Dyra/Crissi's claim at the moment but I'm prepared to give Dyra a chance to explain herself.

Vote Lelly

5 hours until the deadline and I personally believe this is the best train at this moment. I'll be in and out this evening due to guests

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This has yet to be properly claimed or verified, per her post:



The rest of my train is highly suspect. Syriane is completely ignoring me, Danner's vote was based on a mistake and who knows what Cruelle is doing.

Bad Marack. Bad.



I assume you meant "aren't"?

I did!

I'd actually argue that NOT leaving your house this game is fairly sus.

Which leads me to ask @Lellybaby : Are you a super duper something role like Danner?

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I'll also state that I don't like Reti right at this moment but I don't like his train even more.

[Reticence]

I don't like Pistol and Reti visiting each other on N1. I understand it but I dont like it

I'll also state that I don't like Reti right at this moment but I don't like his train even more.

Why? x2 /10chars

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Also,

Unvote
Vote: Lelly

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^ I was reading Lelly's play as actively avoiding attention, which is fairly typical TPR/scum play for her. I was going to avoid her in case it was the former, but with Graeham's results I'm a bit more comfortable with the idea that she's scum.

[Razamith]

Do you have a reveal "before endday" ret? "Unrelated to any of that, I do have some information from last night that I intend to share before end of day, but I want to see where things go organically, first." [#481]

Also /mindboggle that quiz winner hasn't come forward. I keep seeing supposed town people withholding information, which can be prudent but dont want to lose info in death unless obvious from flip/breadcrumb.

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For the record i currently dont trust dyra because the later in the day it gets the less info town has to work with and people "conveniently" dont show. This is besides the logic holes i see, or at worst if i'm wrong it would be interesting insight onto graeham or ret.

[Robozerim]

Okay, deadline is not too horribly far away. Let's catch up now that I am once again not dead on my feet and have my for the foreseeable future standard one day off per week.

A very quick skim of only a couple of posts indicates that Virothe visited the people who died on nights one and two, but there were two different kill signatures? Unless he has one hell of an explanation, he needs to be lynched. If not today, then tomorrow. As I said, though, I need to read what I've missed out on.

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To answer Robo, no, I did not believe Lora's claim, I wanted to have a conversation with her because I believe when people are joking it's the best time for them to slip up.

As for why I say Cruelle handed us A-sayo, I distinctly remember her arguing against him because of his fishy claim, and him not being able to respond to her at all. At least it's what convinced me (check the posts, I literally state her argument is convincing then vote against A-sayo). So I'd say that Cruelle handed me A-sayo, and had town been paying attention to what she made happen (and weren't already intending to vote against A-sayo) it would be said the same for everyone. To me her role in A-sayo's demise was obvious, but since this is evidently not the case, either people were late to suspect him even though they hopped on the train (in which case I am worried because it means we're unlikely to catch a lot of scum...), or I was late in that being the decisive moment for me (in which case I'm rusty and worried about the decay of my own competence).

Okay, sure, I can sort of see where you are going, but the fact of the matter is that the claim itself only ever came out because Cruelle was on the ropes already because of other people handing him up.

In other news, Cruelle I'm pretty sure is male, and I definitely know that Lora is male and would probably yell at you for referring to him as female. I believe his somewhat effeminate eye avatar is actually of Kurt Cobain.

[Reticence]

Do you have a reveal "before endday" ret? "Unrelated to any of that, I do have some information from last night that I intend to share before end of day, but I want to see where things go organically, first." [#481]

Yes.

At the end of N1, I received from an unknown source some flavor text ("black box") and a one-shot Watch ability that I could use in addition to my normal actions. So, last night (N2), I Watched Graeham, and nobody targeted him.

Admittedly, I started to reconsider sharing it after the post you quoted, because if this was the result of WIFOM then we could have been looking at a blocked kill tonight when scum presumably targeted Graeham and hit a protect. However, given that at least a few people are operating under the assumption that a kill targeting him was blocked last night, and because of the possibility that Graeham isn't actually town, it's probably for the best that this information is made public.

[Robozerim]

Ok lets throw a bit of powder on this keg.

Good to see people answering questions. Even better to see a robo analysis that i said on D2 wasn't 'required' but wanted to see any interaction/contribution. What's even better about robo analysis? I can trust it (as his opinion) because except for rare circumstances he is innocent. The quiz winner was a town member I know because I got a prize myself, which was an investigate. Robo seemed good target because he was unknown possibly scum skating by afk, had a mild train on him D1, had a few mentions here or there, and could potentially get time and pull out analysis posts. I also have a good idea who won the question but up to them to speak up (either the fact they won and/or the ability used).

vote: lellybaby
Few reasons. 1) Robo is except-for-investigation-immune confirmed town 2) she was on my list at the start of the day. I did appreciate the early activity but didn't find much insight other than 'looking' helpful. 3) I did my analysis buckets this morning and came up with the below. All opinion except for top category which has provable data points. Now there's some people in all lists i could move around and i have other things i'm watching (and could even be willing to vote) but the bottom crew was having hardest time getting over neutral. Syriane's post above is plausible but you gotta know in a psychological game teams are gonna try to minimize you if you're being helpful -- take the feedback at face value with healthily skepticism and continue to post your thoughts.

Top trust: Robo, probably <redacted> tbd
Tend to trust due to claim (not accounting for traitor): Danner, Cruelle, Graeham
Tend to trust due to circumstances: Celtic, strike (maybe crissi/dyra)
Could lean trust due to content: kryll, marack, reti, senna (maybe pistol)
Not making an appearance in the film above: Lelly, Statsu, Syriane, Virothe (maybes: crissi/dyra, pistol)

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Quick note on celtic: i said in earlier post today "Celtic too but i have to have a town read on him for finding my role/text it was based on " which is true and from MY perspective i have to give a number of town points in helping derail my mislynch. But there are two factors with him 1) You all dont know if he was aligned with me and covering or something and 2) to say his content is "lacking" is an understatement. Really want to see more so i can decide if i'm being overly generous with your "assistance" D1 (could have been a seized opportunity too)

On the plus side, I won't get lynched. On the negative side, I now have a big target on my back equal to if not greater than at least some of the outed tpr's. Thanks for the assist, regardless.

Now I must halt my catching up for a little bit to change my load of laundry...

[Reticence]

For the record i currently dont trust dyra because the later in the day it gets the less info town has to work with and people "conveniently" dont show. This is besides the logic holes i see, or at worst if i'm wrong it would be interesting insight onto graeham or ret.

I also don't trust Dyra, but I suspect the Stat Cat won't be seeing a lynch so soon after replacing Crissi.

[Deleted]

Why? x2 /10chars

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Also,

Unvote
Vote: Lelly

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^ I was reading Lelly's play as actively avoiding attention, which is fairly typical TPR/scum play for her. I was going to avoid her in case it was the former, but with Graeham's results I'm a bit more comfortable with the idea that she's scum.

It smacks of coincidence and I don't like coincidence. Also my previous Note: We have to many people running around claiming powers for them all to be townies

However your play so far suggest to me townie. Basically I haven't made my mind up about you yet so I want you to stick around

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I also don't trust Dyra, but I suspect the Stat Cat won't be seeing a lynch so soon after replacing Crissi.

I'm also going to state: Its more likely that scum would be replace over town since town can usually afford to lose a player or two. Scum usually can't

Again I don't like lynching dyra so soon after replacing someone else

[Reticence]

It smacks of coincidence and I don't like coincidence. Also my previous Note: We have to many people running around claiming powers for them all to be townies

However your play so far suggest to me townie. Basically I haven't made my mind up about you yet so I want you to stick around

Fair enough.

[Virothe]

^ I was reading Lelly's play as actively avoiding attention, which is fairly typical TPR/scum play for her. I was going to avoid her in case it was the former, but with Graeham's results I'm a bit more comfortable with the idea that she's scum.

Aye, I was the same way. I have some doubts still but this vote is also semi self-preservation.

Vote: Lelly

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Again I don't like lynching dyra so soon after replacing someone else

Only scum kill cats!

Though I'm not like a super cat person, it's prbly why I get scum so often v_v

[Deleted]

Aye, I was the same way. I have some doubts still but this vote is also semi self-preservation.

Vote: Lelly

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Only scum kill cats!

Though I'm not like a super cat person, it's prbly why I get scum so often v_v

Dogs are vastly superior to cats (with maybe the exception of StatCat)

In fact if I had been around more on Day 1 I would have pushed so hard for a Graeham lynch based on his dog opinions!

[SatsuBL]

Sheep!!

I see Satsu is following the lead of others... SHEEP!!!

Well... The image I wanted to post wouldn't from my phone... Just imagine ������ sheep ������ jumping around

#justkelthings

If that is not softclaiming Robozerim role than I don't know what it is suppsed to be. If his role is same than Virothe role with just names swapped than he is either recruitalbe or scum or both.

Dyra's claim doesn't add up.

Virothe is likely scum.

But you want to lynch Reticence or Lellybaby? There must be something I don't get here. Will read day 3 again.

[Robozerim]

Dogs are vastly superior to cats (with maybe the exception of StatCat)

In fact if I had been around more on Day 1 I would have pushed so hard for a Graeham lynch based on his dog opinions!

There would have been all out war, because dogs suck in comparison to cats.