Illusory Truth Effect - How Trump Sustains ~30% Approval

[Antiganon]

You factually did NOT have more in itemized deductions, that were removed, than you get from doubling the standard deduction. Show your math or stop lying. Either will work.

PERSONAL EXEMPTION: $4,850 per dependent member of the household. I have two children, so that's 4 exemptions. 4*4850 = $19,400
STANDARD DEDUCTION: $12,700 for a married couple filing jointly in FY 2017. $24,000 for a married couple filing jointly in FY 2018.

$24,000 - ($19,400 + $12,700) = $24,000 - $32,100 = -$8,100. That $8,100 HIGHER AGI in FY 2018, despite my income not increasing by one cent.

Additionally, the Child Care Tax Credit, which is a non-refundable credit for 20-35% of allowable childcare expenses (up to $3,000 is allowable), was REPEALED. I have two young children in daycare, and paid over $12,000 in childcare expenses last year. That would be an additional $1,200 credit for me.

I'll wait for your retraction.

Who cares how Trump was elected? These are the rules. Everyone knew the rules. Even the dumbest poster here, whoever that might be, would have known better than to ignore the rust belt that Trump was so obviously targeting. Hillary LITERALLY spent campaign dollars in California. That is political malpractice.

We are in agreement. Trump was duly elected under the law. I never said otherwise.

YOU made a claim about him having popular policies, and people like what he is doing, just not what he says. Given you specifically raised the question of his popularity, whether or not he was popularly elected is relevant to the discussion.

Democrat voters may want what you want, but not he elected Democrats. The elected Democrats will NEVER vote for a solution to illegal immigration. NEVER. The only reason they are so against the wall, is because it will work so well.

I am not going to engage you on this point any further. As I said in my last post, there is no productive discussion to be had here.

If what Trump is doing is unpopular, why is his approval rating going up? Explain that please. What is your explanation for the dramatic improvement in his poll ratings, after the tax cut passed, if not the tax cut itself?

I thought polls didn't matter? Only facts matter? That is what you said, right?

You think you are hiding behind facts, but you are not. You are hiding behind POLLS, not facts. And much of what we are discussing, is just basic logic. You don't need a poll, to tell you when sound logic is in play, and when it is not.

POLLS =/= FACTS

Oh look, it is what you said.

[Dontrike]

The only reason they are so against the wall, is because it will work so well.

I don't have the energy to do anything else but laugh at this statement. So glad @Tijuana believes that a wall, which by the way won't cover the entire border, that will easily cost $100 billion dollars, easily, just to get built (if it was made across the entire border) is not only possible, but that it will work.

By the way how's that wall going? It is being built yet?

[Antiganon]

I don't have the energy to do anything else but laugh at this statement. So glad @Tijuana believes that a wall, which by the way won't cover the entire border, that will easily cost $100 billion dollars, easily, just to get built (if it was made across the entire border) is not only possible, but that it will work.

By the way how's that wall going? It is being built yet?

Pretty sure he is avoiding this thread now that I actually showed the math that proves the tax plan is not better for everyone.

[Dontrike]

Pretty sure he is avoiding this thread now that I actually showed the math that proves the tax plan is not better for everyone.

He'll be back, he always does something like this. Says he's not lying, says something is the way only he says it is, says math is wrong, or really anything else and as soon as someone calls him on it he stumbles, backs away, and then plays the victim.

[vondevon]

Could you be more condescending? First you make wild, sweeping claims based in psuedo science and conspiracy theory, now you move on to more nonsense.

Please tell me how I was condescending. "Wild" and "sweeping" I disagree but I'll accept... but there is no psuedo-science and no conspiracy in my theory. I linked directly to published research papers and graphs compiled from their findings, all relating to this widely-known and thoroughly-studied mental mechanism, and the ONLY claim I made is to use that mechanism to attempt to explain an aspect of the political climate we live in. You, on the other hand, are making a lot of assertions (ALL CAPS "FACTS") without citing anything.

1. First of all, you are conflating legal and illegal immigration, in an effort to get more boo hoos.

Fucking look at my links. I gave you 5 to chose from. The first 3 VERY CLEARLY SEPARATE LEGAL FROM ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN THEIR TABLES

2. Over 30% of the federal prison population is comprised of illegal immigrants. It's pretty safe to say, that illegal immigrants do not comprise 30% of the population. Even if your premise were true though, it doesn't matter. If one criminal can be deported and another can't, that is no reason to not deport the one who can. The issue is not the amount of crime, the issue is it's crime that doesn't need to happen, because they should not be here anyway. So every single crime an illegal commits, is a crime that didn't need to happen.

I'll make my link more obvious so you can see it this time >>>>> https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.o...1-figure-2.png <<<<<<

According to this, your numbers came right out of your asshole. I like the part where you talked about how crimes committed by immigrants "didn't need to happen" as if crimes committed by natives did??? Not sure what point you're trying to make.

3. Illegal immigrants DO cost us money. They DO use more resources than they pay in taxes. FYI, that is also true of every citizen, save the ultra wealthy.

Fuckin' sources, c'mon. You can skip this one though, because as someone else pointed out, if this "is true of every citizen, save the ultra wealthy" then your point is kinda moot (unless you want to deport all the poor people, too)

3. Illegal immigrants DO steal jobs. These are just facts, regardless if you like them or not. For example, they completely dominate the residential housing construction trades. Are you suggesting, that if there were no illegals, that Americans would not build houses? REALLY? Where did we get the houses we had before this problem got out of hand? MAGIC?

The only magic here is how you managed to get so far through life w/o learning to count. Hmm yes okay, more bodies in the workforce means more competition for jobs. But did you also know that more bodies participating in the economy means overall economic growth, and that immigrants actually create a lot of jobs too? To put it in terms you might understand ... do you know how many taco shops and immigration lawyers there are in my city? A fuck-ton. Those would not be here without the South-American immigrant population creating the need for them. There's a man I've been a patron of for years, starting back when he had nothing but a little taco cart. I've watched his business grow from one facility to the next and now he has a full restaurant with a dozen full-time staff.

4. Taking money out of the economy harms the economy. You will not find any reputable economist who will deny that. Reputable does NOT include Paul Krugman, who is regularly mocked by all of his peers for being a shill who will say anything to support Democrats.

Yes, taking money out does harm the economy. Which is exactly why I support raising the wage floor and social welfare programs that funnel tax money directly toward low-wage earners, because people on the bottom of the economic ladder spend 100-110% of their income -- whereas the upper tiers spend 10-20% or less (putting the rest into stocks, bonds and savings). The wealthy are literally draining the economy.

5. You are arguing from the position of other people have their facts wrong, instead of other people disagree, which makes you a jerk. It makes you even more of a jerk, when you clearly show that YOU do not have your facts straight.

We can disagree on whether or not a song is good, but there is no room for opinion or disagreement on measurable data. I've taken the time to find and source my data. We're all still waiting for you to do the same.

6. Donald Trump is a lot of things, but his business acumen has literally nothing to do with his current day job.

It literally does ---> https://www.politico.com/story/2015/...-bought-120743

PERSONAL EXEMPTION: $4,850 per dependent member of the household. I have two children, so that's 4 exemptions. 4*4850 = $19,400
STANDARD DEDUCTION: $12,700 for a married couple filing jointly in FY 2017. $24,000 for a married couple filing jointly in FY 2018.

$24,000 - ($19,400 + $12,700) = $24,000 - $32,100 = -$8,100. That $8,100 HIGHER AGI in FY 2018, despite my income not increasing by one cent.

Additionally, the Child Care Tax Credit, which is a non-refundable credit for 20-35% of allowable childcare expenses (up to $3,000 is allowable), was REPEALED. I have two young children in daycare, and paid over $12,000 in childcare expenses last year. That would be an additional $1,200 credit for me.

I'll wait for your retraction.

Thank you for sharing this. It's almost like... we actually can learn something from a tax return...

[Stormspellz]

ROFL

Sure, if you say so. I'm sure you have seen all sorts of research saying that. I'm not saying the average Trump supporter is not ignorant; I'm saying most people are, on both sides.

But you are laughably missing a key point here. Most of what Trump is actually doing, rather than saying, IS IN FACT popular. He is just pissing everyone off with what he says.

I think if you look at Obama supporters, from an actual research angle, you will find that they support Obama FAR more than Trump supporters support Trump.

What he is doing is only popular with the same group of cult like people, for the general population they have been disastrous.

[Antiganon]

What he is doing is only popular with the same group of cult like people, for the general population they have been disastrous.

Oh but no, it's popular with everyone, because reasons.

I'm not going to tell you those reasons, they should be self evident if you aren't a moron.

Cite my sources? Why would I do that? Too lazy to do your own research?

Everybody knows that everyone likes money, and the President said that his tax plan gives everyone more money, so if you don't understand why the tax plan is obviously popular then I don't know what to tell you.

I'm going to continue shitposting and ignoring that voters with an attention span of more than 5 seconds might look at the tax plan and see "Hey, I maybe do a tiny bit better this year, but look at how badly I get screwed in the future when the cuts expire and the deductions stay gone!" or perhaps "Hey, this tax plan helps me in the here and now, but it is going to utterly destroy social services that my children may need in the future, not to mention the debt burden we are passing to the next generation." or maybe even "Hey, the President lied, this doesn't actually give me any more money in my paycheck."

/s, if it wasn't blatantly obvious.

[Mormolyce]

The only reason they are so against the wall, is because it will work so well.

Ahahaha, oh man that's embarrassing even for you. Gonna hold onto this gem.

P.S. Bring back Soyboy, he was way better.

[Tijuana]

What he is doing is only popular with the same group of cult like people, for the general population they have been disastrous.

If only there was some way to gauge public opinion....

Oh look! It seems like his poll numbers are WAY up after passing that tax cut! How did that happen, if not for policy approval? Are you suggesting his approval is going up, because of the things that come out of his mouth, and his smart phone? Really, this is your claim? No. It's the policies that are popular, not Trump. Obviously.

[Dontrike]

If only there was some way to gauge public opinion....

Oh look! It seems like his poll numbers are WAY up after passing that tax cut! How did that happen, if not for policy approval? Are you suggesting his approval is going up, because of the things that come out of his mouth, and his smart phone? Really, this is your claim? No. It's the policies that are popular, not Trump. Obviously.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha. Nothing like conned rubes thinking he's popular.

[Stormspellz]

If only there was some way to gauge public opinion....

Oh look! It seems like his poll numbers are WAY up after passing that tax cut! How did that happen, if not for policy approval? Are you suggesting his approval is going up, because of the things that come out of his mouth, and his smart phone? Really, this is your claim? No. It's the policies that are popular, not Trump. Obviously.

"way up" still haven't even broken 45% let alone 50% in his first year, yes they slightly boosted to a whooping 41%

but you know those same polls

12% healthcare bill support
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...lan/103249346/

tax reform, while it is growing it started at 36%, i can only go up till then.
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/do...reform-growing

So its riding a wave of propaganda uptick, once the full effect of the bill hits, cuts to Medicaid, social security, education start hitting to make up for the budget shortfall, it will plummet back to the low 30s

also related: Poll: Most Americans not getting bigger paychecks in wake of tax overhaul
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/37...mpression=true

[Antiganon]

If only there was some way to gauge public opinion....

Oh look! It seems like his poll numbers are WAY up after passing that tax cut! How did that happen, if not for policy approval? Are you suggesting his approval is going up, because of the things that come out of his mouth, and his smart phone? Really, this is your claim? No. It's the policies that are popular, not Trump. Obviously.

So let's recap.

You make a claim that Trump's policies enjoy popular support, but that Trump the person doesn't, because he says and tweets rude things.

You are asked to provide a source to back up your claim.

You refuse, citing "obviousness" and "I'm not doing your research for you".

You are asked again, repeatedly, for a source.

You cite Trump job approval numbers. You claim "Well everyone hates what he says, so clearly his numbers went up because of the tax plan!"

Here is the problem though:

He has recently given the State of the Union address. In that speech, he spoke with dignity he does not often appear to possess, and he called for bipartisanship in Congress. No President has ever lost support by speaking like an adult and calling for Congress to do their jobs.

I will ask again:

Do you have a source that indicates ANY of Trump's policy proposals or actions enjoy popular support among the electorate?

[Dontrike]

Do you have a source that indicates ANY of Trump's policy proposals or actions enjoy popular support among the electorate?

I wish you luck getting an actual answer out of him, but that's not going to happen.

[Kathandira]

We also need to find a way to reliably pop people's warm secure reality bubbles. The internet has really fostered efforts to create parallel universes for ideologies to exist disconnected with reality.

I'd contest that by pointing out that before the Internet, and even TV, each person's worldview was far smaller than it is today. Ignorance is bliss, and before mass communication like we have today, there were many more ignorant people. The difference is, in today's world, you have to be willfully ignorant to not know what is happening in each small part of the world. Where in the past, it was almost excusable since access to such information wasn't available to everyone.

[Tijuana]

"way up" still haven't even broken 45% let alone 50% in his first year, yes they slightly boosted to a whooping 41%

but you know those same polls

12% healthcare bill support
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...lan/103249346/

tax reform, while it is growing it started at 36%, i can only go up till then.
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/do...reform-growing

So its riding a wave of propaganda uptick, once the full effect of the bill hits, cuts to Medicaid, social security, education start hitting to make up for the budget shortfall, it will plummet back to the low 30s

also related: Poll: Most Americans not getting bigger paychecks in wake of tax overhaul
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/37...mpression=true

Trump is at 48% atm, and that is 2 points higher than Obama was at this point (rasmussen). Making the wild claim that Trump is the most unpopular ever, is a little silly.

Your tax bill poll is from JUNE of 2017! That isn't a poll of the actual bill that actually passed! Are you fucking serious? Here is a leftist rag link that notes the uptick in approval of the tax bill, now that people have seen their actual paychecks, rather relying on Medicrat lies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/b...D02382&gwt=pay

So, in your mind, the tax bill is up due to propaganda? Are you serious? No for real, is that really what you think? You think that people just HATE having more money, and when they get more, they just get PISSED? I guess that explains Democrat tax policy...

[NYC17]

Trump is at 48% atm, and that is 2 points higher than Obama was at this point (rasmussen). Making the wild claim that Trump is the most unpopular ever, is a little silly.

Your tax bill poll is from JUNE of 2017! That isn't a poll of the actual bill that actually passed! Are you fucking serious? Here is a leftist rag link that notes the uptick in approval of the tax bill, now that people have seen their actual paychecks, rather relying on Medicrat lies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/b...D02382&gwt=pay

So, in your mind, the tax bill is up due to propaganda? Are you serious? No for real, is that really what you think? You think that people just HATE having more money, and when they get more, they just get PISSED? I guess that explains Democrat tax policy...

You just used Rasmussen to make a point without even a hint of it being a joke.

Just wanted to highlight that.

[Garnier Fructis]

Trump is at 48% atm, and that is 2 points higher than Obama was at this point (rasmussen). Making the wild claim that Trump is the most unpopular ever, is a little silly.

Until you look at aggregate polling instead of cherry picking the poll that's been most favorable to Trump, and then you see that he's got the worst net performance of any President at this point in the Presidency. Which has been the case every day of his Presidency so far.

[Tijuana]

So let's recap.

You make a claim that Trump's policies enjoy popular support, but that Trump the person doesn't, because he says and tweets rude things.

You are asked to provide a source to back up your claim.

You refuse, citing "obviousness" and "I'm not doing your research for you".

You are asked again, repeatedly, for a source.

You cite Trump job approval numbers. You claim "Well everyone hates what he says, so clearly his numbers went up because of the tax plan!"

Here is the problem though:

He has recently given the State of the Union address. In that speech, he spoke with dignity he does not often appear to possess, and he called for bipartisanship in Congress. No President has ever lost support by speaking like an adult and calling for Congress to do their jobs.

I will ask again:

Do you have a source that indicates ANY of Trump's policy proposals or actions enjoy popular support among the electorate?

Do you not understand what a job approval rating poll is? My point, is that people can both think he is doing a good job, but also think he personally is a giant douche.

Yes, you won't find a VALID poll that shows the tax cut is polling below 50%. Obviously there is some partisanship built in to the numbers, on both sides. Trump CAN'T get below ~35%, but he also CAN'T get above ~60%, just due to partisanship. (people really don't ever get that high though, even in good presidencies)

- - - Updated - - -

Until you look at aggregate polling instead of cherry picking the poll that's been most favorable to Trump, and then you see that he's got the worst net performance of any President at this point in the Presidency. Which has been the case every day of his Presidency so far.

Why lump in a bunch of bad polls though? Why not go with the one that performed the best last election?

[Garnier Fructis]

Why lump in a bunch of bad polls though? Why not go with the one that performed the best last election?

Rasmussen fucked up the 2012 election. So why are you using a bad poll? /s

That's the point: polls have error. Every poll has error. Hence why you look at multiple together.

[Antiganon]

Do you not understand what a job approval rating poll is? My point, is that people can both think he is doing a good job, but also think he personally is a giant douche.

My point is, people can like the person proposing the idea, and dislike the idea being proposed, or vice versa. Or sometimes they like the idea being proposed, but when the exact same idea has a different name attached, people all of a sudden hate it.

So I will ask again - do you have a source that shows popular support for ANY of Trump's policy proposals or actions among the electorate?

Hell, at this point I'd take an approval poll for the air strike in Syria immediately after Assad used chemical weapons on children just to be done with this damn line of conversation.