Illusory Truth Effect - How Trump Sustains ~30% Approval

[Dontrike]

Trump is at 48% atm.

Couldn't read the rest, because no, no he is not. If you're going to lie at least make it interesting for the rest of us.

If we went by your "using the best" then we must use the best when it comes to disapproval which would be about 58%, but logic isn't your strong suit even when others use your own logic.

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So I will ask again - do you have a source that shows popular support for ANY of Trump's policy proposals or actions among the electorate?

Of course he doesn't, he only has what he feels, which is every Trumplestiltskin.

[Tijuana]

My point is, people can like the person proposing the idea, and dislike the idea being proposed, or vice versa. Or sometimes they like the idea being proposed, but when the exact same idea has a different name attached, people all of a sudden hate it.

So I will ask again - do you have a source that shows popular support for ANY of Trump's policy proposals or actions among the electorate?

Hell, at this point I'd take an approval poll for the air strike in Syria immediately after Assad used chemical weapons on children just to be done with this damn line of conversation.

I don't even know what your point is. Why are you linking random shit?

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Rasmussen fucked up the 2012 election. So why are you using a bad poll? /s

That's the point: polls have error. Every poll has error. Hence why you look at multiple together.

No, it's very simple. Look at how many Democrats they put in, and how many Republicans they put in. If you were to believe the 2016 presidential polls, you had to accept the "fact" that less than 20% of Americans are Republicans, and nearly 40% are Democrats. You can immediately tell a poll is bullshit, if they say 19% of Americans are Republican, when Republicans hold the House and the Senate. That's just science.

[Machismo]

I don't even know what your point is. Why are you linking random shit?

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No, it's very simple. Look at how many Democrats they put in, and how many Republicans they put in. If you were to believe the 2016 presidential polls, you had to accept the "fact" that less than 20% of Americans are Republicans, and nearly 40% are Democrats. You can immediately tell a poll is bullshit, if they say 19% of Americans are Republican, when Republicans hold the House and the Senate. That's just science.

It is science, and science disagrees with you.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

[Antiganon]

I don't even know what your point is. Why are you linking random shit?

As an example of people with insurance through the ACA, supportive of the ACA, but think Obamacare is a disaster and has to go.

I am saying that Trump approval polls are not necessarily indicative of people's approval or disapproval of specific policy items or actions, but of the man in general.

A neoliberal Democrat might disapprove of Trump, the man, on principle. That same person may disapprove of Trump's tax plan, when you attach the Trump name to it. That same person may approve of a tax plan lowering the top marginal rates and removing some common individual deductions.

Another example - Hurricane Harvey and Irma. Trump's response to those disasters was generally commended. His response to Maria was lambasted as horrifying, especially in comparison to Harvey and Irma (where he did well). The complaints about Maria were made worse by the general perception that Trump is racist. People who might have written off the Maria response issues as "Well it is far more difficult to provide the same level of support to an island where all the infrastructure was heavily damaged" instead said "Well Puerto Rico doesn't get help because Trump hates brown people".

So I will ask again.

Do you have any source that indicates popular support among the American people for any of Trump's policies or actions?

[Garnier Fructis]

No, it's very simple. Look at how many Democrats they put in, and how many Republicans they put in. If you were to believe the 2016 presidential polls, you had to accept the "fact" that less than 20% of Americans are Republicans, and nearly 40% are Democrats. You can immediately tell a poll is bullshit, if they say 19% of Americans are Republican, when Republicans hold the House and the Senate. That's just science.

And have you looked at how people identify themselves? That's the benchmark you have to compare with if you're going to claim that polls are biased.

[Tijuana]

And have you looked at how people identify themselves? That's the benchmark you have to compare with if you're going to claim that polls are biased.

Voter registrations are public. They could just use those, rather trying to fake polls, with biased samplings. I mean, there is a reason they were all so wrong in 2016, and that reason is not a mystery to pollsters.

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As an example of people with insurance through the ACA, supportive of the ACA, but think Obamacare is a disaster and has to go.

I am saying that Trump approval polls are not necessarily indicative of people's approval or disapproval of specific policy items or actions, but of the man in general.

A neoliberal Democrat might disapprove of Trump, the man, on principle. That same person may disapprove of Trump's tax plan, when you attach the Trump name to it. That same person may approve of a tax plan lowering the top marginal rates and removing some common individual deductions.

Another example - Hurricane Harvey and Irma. Trump's response to those disasters was generally commended. His response to Maria was lambasted as horrifying, especially in comparison to Harvey and Irma (where he did well). The complaints about Maria were made worse by the general perception that Trump is racist. People who might have written off the Maria response issues as "Well it is far more difficult to provide the same level of support to an island where all the infrastructure was heavily damaged" instead said "Well Puerto Rico doesn't get help because Trump hates brown people".

So I will ask again.

Do you have any source that indicates popular support among the American people for any of Trump's policies or actions?

Great. The world is full of morons. I'm glad you finally realized this. But what is your POINT?

[NYC17]

Voter registrations are public. They could just use those, rather trying to fake polls, with biased samplings. I mean, there is a reason they were all so wrong in 2016, and that reason is not a mystery to pollsters.

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Great. The world is full of morons. I'm glad you finally realized this. But what is your POINT?

How is it not self evident?

[Blur4stuff]

That's almost as good as the "keep your government hands off my medicare" sign.

[Stormspellz]

Trump is at 48% atm, and that is 2 points higher than Obama was at this point (rasmussen). Making the wild claim that Trump is the most unpopular ever, is a little silly.

Your tax bill poll is from JUNE of 2017! That isn't a poll of the actual bill that actually passed! Are you fucking serious? Here is a leftist rag link that notes the uptick in approval of the tax bill, now that people have seen their actual paychecks, rather relying on Medicrat lies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/b...D02382&gwt=pay

So, in your mind, the tax bill is up due to propaganda? Are you serious? No for real, is that really what you think? You think that people just HATE having more money, and when they get more, they just get PISSED? I guess that explains Democrat tax policy...

Rasmussen? of course you would use that poll and not aggregated polling. You a full frontal cult45 after all. The claim he is the most unpopular polled ever, isn't silly. Its fact, unquestionable fact for a first year president.
http://time.com/5103776/donald-trump...-rating-graph/

and yes propaganda, because mathematically anything past the pr blitz of "hey look one time bonuses for some people", years down the line the Tax bill is horrible for the middle class of America, and thats without even the fallout of budget issues the increases deficits will cause.

[Antiganon]

Great. The world is full of morons. I'm glad you finally realized this. But what is your POINT?

Ok, fine. I will boil it down even further.

Public opinion on a policy position or Presidential action is not necessarily correlated with public opinion on the President himself.

Do you have any sources that indicate popular support for Trump's policy positions or actions, rather than approval polls for Trump himself?

Full disclosure for intellectual honesty purposes - I do not approve of the job Trump is doing as President, in general (big surprise I'm sure). I did approve of his actions with regards to Harvey, Irma, and the air strike in Syria early in the year. I am reasonably certain there are other reasonable Democrats like me, who disagree broadly with Trump and what he wants to do, but could concede that an individual action was handled well, or that he might have a good idea on how to do something. You will NEVER see Democrats broadly supportive of a Trump policy with his name attached. By polling the policy without attaching Trump, you get a more accurate response for how people feel about the policy in general.

Converse example - I was broadly supportive of the job President Obama was doing, but specifically disagreed with many of his foreign policy positions.

[Tijuana]

Ok, fine. I will boil it down even further.

Public opinion on a policy position or Presidential action is not necessarily correlated with public opinion on the President himself.

Do you have any sources that indicate popular support for Trump's policy positions or actions, rather than approval polls for Trump himself?

Full disclosure for intellectual honesty purposes - I do not approve of the job Trump is doing as President, in general (big surprise I'm sure). I did approve of his actions with regards to Harvey, Irma, and the air strike in Syria early in the year. I am reasonably certain there are other reasonable Democrats like me, who disagree broadly with Trump and what he wants to do, but could concede that an individual action was handled well, or that he might have a good idea on how to do something. You will NEVER see Democrats broadly supportive of a Trump policy with his name attached. By polling the policy without attaching Trump, you get a more accurate response for how people feel about the policy in general.

Converse example - I was broadly supportive of the job President Obama was doing, but specifically disagreed with many of his foreign policy positions.

Great! We are in agreement, and there is no need to even go any further.

Stop it, I'm on the floor with the second bit. If people like you describe actually exist, they have been run out of power long ago. I have seen these parties swing back and forth quite a bit in my long life, and I have never seen one move so far from the center. Bernie moved the party hard to the left, and he would be right wing now among them.

[Hobb]

Trump is at 48% atm, and that is 2 points higher than Obama was at this point (rasmussen). Making the wild claim that Trump is the most unpopular ever, is a little silly.

Incorrect, his average is 40.8%. The Rasmussen poll is well know for its strong right leaning bias, thus its low reliability score it's given.

And yes, Trump is the most unpopular president in US history at this point in his term. Prior to him it was Gerald Ford, but now even Trump makes Ford's score look good.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

[Dontrike]

Incorrect, his average is 40.8%. The Rasmussen poll is well know for its strong right leaning bias, thus its low reliability score it's given.

And yes, Trump is the most unpopular president in US history at this point in his term. Prior to him it was Gerald Ford, but now even Trump makes Ford's score look good.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

I've looked at that three times today and each time Trump's approval has come down, only 0.2% each time, but that's insane for it to drop that much in only 5 hours.

[Tijuana]

Incorrect, his average is 40.8%. The Rasmussen poll is well know for its strong right leaning bias, thus its low reliability score it's given.

And yes, Trump is the most unpopular president in US history at this point in his term. Prior to him it was Gerald Ford, but now even Trump makes Ford's score look good.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

I used the Rasmussen poll because it was far and away the most accurate last election. Just because it lands to the right of other polls, doesn't necessarily make it less accurate. It just means it's sampled more Republicans. Maybe they over sample, maybe others under sample. I think it's the latter, perhaps you think it's the former.

But over sampling Democrats seems like a strange way to gauge public support of Trump, given they didn't vote for him anyway, and will not in the future.

No matter what he figure of Republicans is, it sure in the fuck isn't 19% of the population, as can be found in many left wing polls.

[Dontrike]

I used the Rasmussen poll because it was far and away the most accurate last election.

Did you just say that one poll is more accurate than collection of them together?

[Stormspellz]

I used the Rasmussen poll because it was far and away the most accurate last election. Just because it lands to the right of other polls, doesn't necessarily make it less accurate. It just means it's sampled more Republicans. Maybe they over sample, maybe others under sample. I think it's the latter, perhaps you think it's the former.

But over sampling Democrats seems like a strange way to gauge public support of Trump, given they didn't vote for him anyway, and will not in the future.

No matter what he figure of Republicans is, it sure in the fuck isn't 19% of the population, as can be found in many left wing polls.

again no Rasmussen one time getting to the "best" by 1% doesn't mean it across the board is the most accurate when it has been shown to skewed over and over.

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Did you just say that one poll is more accurate than collection of them together?

you see this one time, in this one poll Rasmussen said Clinton would win by 2% and other polls had her at 3% popular vote, so there for all Ras polls for ever and ever are more valid even when shown they use skewed data/process

[Hobb]

I used the Rasmussen poll because it was far and away the most accurate last election. Just because it lands to the right of other polls, doesn't necessarily make it less accurate. It just means it's sampled more Republicans. Maybe they over sample, maybe others under sample. I think it's the latter, perhaps you think it's the former.

But over sampling Democrats seems like a strange way to gauge public support of Trump, given they didn't vote for him anyway, and will not in the future.

No matter what he figure of Republicans is, it sure in the fuck isn't 19% of the population, as can be found in many left wing polls.

It's not just its lopsided sampling size that throws off its accuracy, its also their leading questions toward a predetermine result.

So yes, its inaccurate. Weather you want to believe it or not, it doesn't change the fact that it is.

[Tijuana]

again no Rasmussen one time getting to the "best" by 1% doesn't mean it across the board is the most accurate when it has been shown to skewed over and over.

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you see this one time, in this one poll Rasmussen said Clinton would win by 2% and other polls had her at 3% popular vote, so there for all Ras polls for ever and ever are more valid even when shown they use skewed data/process

You can say the same about any polling company. They are make terrible mistakes from time to time. There is a a reason we don't use them in leiu of voting.

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It's not just its lopsided sampling size that throws off its accuracy, its also their leading questions toward a predetermine result.

So yes, its inaccurate. Weather you want to believe it or not, it doesn't change the fact that it is.

How do you make a presidential job approval question leading? I'll need an example of your wild claim, if we are going to take it seriously. Please provide an instance of an improper question being used, in a presidential approval poll. I'll wait here, while you go and back that claim up with facts. Please be quick.

[Hobb]

you see this one time, in this one poll Rasmussen said Clinton would win by 2% and other polls had her at 3% popular vote, so there for all Ras polls for ever and ever are more valid even when shown they use skewed data/process

The rasmussen also had Romney beating Obama as well.

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How do you make a presidential job approval question leading? I'll need an example of your wild claim, if we are going to take it seriously. Please provide an instance of an improper question being used, in a presidential approval poll. I'll wait here, while you go and back that claim up with facts. Please be quick.

Since you ask. Here's an example from Nate Silver on them directing the outcome to a predetermine result.

I also have some questions about Rasmussen’s choice of subject matter. In particular, they have a knack for issuing polls at times which tend to dovetail with conservative media narratives. Rasmussen, for instance, recently decided to issue a poll about Ben Nelson’s standing in Nebraska in light of his vote for health care, which is unpopular in the state. But did they issue a similar poll for Joe Lieberman, who until recently looked like he might vote against the health care bill — and who opposed the public option, a policy which is very popular in Connecticut? No. They did poll Connecticut in December, but they asked only about Chris Dodd, and not Lieberman. Certainly, there’s nothing wrong with polling on Ben Nelson — or with not polling on Joe Lieberman, who gets polled frequently by home-state pollster Quinnipiac. But if you see this sort of pattern consistently, then it may reflect a certain kind of bias.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...eports-biased/

[Stormspellz]

You can say the same about any polling company. They are make terrible mistakes from time to time. There is a a reason we don't use them in leiu of voting.

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How do you make a presidential job approval question leading? I'll need an example of your wild claim, if we are going to take it seriously. Please provide an instance of an improper question being used, in a presidential approval poll. I'll wait here, while you go and back that claim up with facts. Please be quick.

you can "say" anything you want, doesn't mean its accurate.

Because Ras fell into a "broke clock is right twice a day" situation doesn't mean they are always correct, when they have been so off and wrong so many times they aren't reported in some poll aggregations reports of the major polls.